Semafor Flagship-Asia Morning Edition

"ASML earnings disappoint, KH's economic plan, Kyiv's victory plan."

Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analysis are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 17 October 2024, 0251 UTC.

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

 

Hong Kong  Chennai  Neom October 17, 2024 Read on the web Flagship Asia Morning Edition Sign up for our free newsletters→   The World Today ASML earnings disappoint HK’s economic plan Kyiv’s victory plan ‘Boys vs. girls’ in US election Musk vs. billionaires in India Neom gobbles steel Click-to-cancel is here First color Kindle Ivy admissions whisperer Map of the universe A new photo exhibition honors a historical bright spot in Sino-American relations. ↓ 1 Chip giant’s earnings shock global industry Dutch semiconductor giant ASML sent shivers through the chip industry Wednesday after reporting underwhelming earnings and lowering its net sales forecast for 2025. ASML, which makes advanced chipmaking machines, is seen as a bellwether for the global chip industry; it reported a drop in customer orders, largely because of factory delays and struggles within non-high tech sectors, like automotives. The company expects its China sales to drop next year because of US export restrictions, ASML’s chief financial officer said: “We all read newspapers, right? We all see that there is speculation around export control.” The results triggered a broad chip stock selloff; investors will get more clues on the industry’s health when chip giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. reports earnings Thursday. ↓ 2 Hong Kong details economic blueprint Hong Kong’s leader pledged Wednesday to ease mortgage rules and slash the liquor import tax in an effort to revive the financial hub’s economy. Sluggish retail spending and an exodus of capital have slowed Hong Kong’s post-pandemic economic comeback, and Chief Executive John Lee used his annual policy address to say the city must “embrace changes.” He also announced measures to woo rich immigrants to buy property, and proposed tourism plans centered around yachting, pandas, and horse racing. The mortgage policy relaxation comes as China’s property stocks rallied on speculation that the country’s housing minister could announce plans Thursday to boost the mainland’s slumping property sector. ↓ 3 Ukraine unveils ‘victory plan’ Andrii Nesterenko/Reuters Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Wednesday unveiled his “victory plan” in the war against Russia, but his Western allies might need some convincing. The plan, presented to Ukrainian lawmakers, calls for immediate NATO membership for Ukraine and for partners to allow Kyiv to strike deep inside Russia using long-range weapons. But the alliance is unlikely to extend an invitation before next summer, especially with an outgoing US administration: “I won’t bet a bottle of wine” on it, one NATO official told The Washington Post. Zelenskyy is pushing the plan because it may be “his last best chance for substantial foreign assistance,” The New Yorker wrote. Indeed, the White House pledged a new $425 million military aid package for Ukraine on Wednesday. ↓ 4 Trump, Harris hope to close gender gap Kevin Lamarque/Reuters Donald Trump is courting women voters and Kamala Harris is targeting men in an election defined by a striking gender gap. Polls show Harris leads among women voters while Trump performs better with men — one pundit called it the “boys vs girls” election. With the election 20 days away, both are targeting the opposite gender: Trump’s Fox News town hall this week had an all-female audience, and he recently told women he would be their “protector,” while Harris ramped up outreach to Black men, including with an appearance on The Breakfast Club radio show. She is reportedly also considering an interview with podcaster Joe Rogan, who is popular among young men. Even marginal gains on either side could make the difference in a knife-edge race. ↓ 5 Musk battles Indian moguls over satellites Reuters Elon Musk scored a victory over two fellow billionaires in his quest to bring Starlink satellite internet to India. Local telecom magnates Mukesh Ambani and Sunil Bharti Mittal have pushed for the government to auction off satellite broadband spectrum, rather than allocate it, a move that Musk vocally opposed. Hours after his criticism, Indian officials rejected the auction route that would have likely favored domestic players. While revenue for the Indian space broadband market could eventually total $1 billion annually, one industry expert said the latest spat is simply an “ego battle,” telling the Financial Times: “It’s more about ensuring that the telecom industry remains in control of the local players rather than foreigners coming in and dictating their agenda.” ↓ 6 A fifth of world’s steel goes to Neom A rendering of Neom. Neom One fifth of the world’s steel is being gobbled up by just one site: Saudi Arabia’s behemoth project Neom, its chief investment officer said this week. The futuristic desert city also accounts for 5% of global logistics demand, and will be a top customer for construction materials for the next several decades, the executive added. The $1.5 trillion development is the centerpiece of the country’s ambition to diversify its oil-dependent economy and become a luxury tourism destination, but has been plagued by worker deaths and reports of executives’ misconduct. The project’s luxury yacht club island unofficially opened its doors in recent days, Semafor Gulf reported: It seeks to lure yacht owners from the hotspots of Saint Tropez, Monaco, and Porto Cervo. ↓ 7 US subscriptions easier to cancel Jonathan Raa/NurPhoto via Reuters US regulators are going to make canceling subscriptions easier than ever. Following an increase in complaints about hard-to-cancel services, the Federal Trade Commission’s new rules — which take effect in 180 days — will require businesses ranging from gyms to streaming sites to simplify canceling subscriptions so people aren’t locked into paying for services they don’t want. However, the FTC removed some provisions from earlier drafts of the measures, such as requirements for services to remind customers annually that they can cancel. The rule change comes despite objections from business groups that a simple click-to-cancel model would lead customers to accidentally terminate services they actually wanted. ↓ World Economy Summit UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti will join the Global Finance session at the Fall Edition of Semafor’s World Economy Summit on Oct. 24 to discuss how C-suites, finance ministers, and central bank governors are adjusting their economic playbooks as interest rates ease, and what new risks may be looming. RSVP to this session and the World Economy Summit here. ↓ 8 Amazon debuts first color Kindle Amazon Kindles will finally be available in color. Amazon’s e-reader is now 17 years old, but while many problems with its early editions have been ironed out, they have remained stubbornly monochrome, years after competitors such as Boox introduced color options. The Kindle Colorsoft “looks pretty good,” said The Verge: “It’s no iPad screen, but it’s sharp enough and bright enough to make comics pop.” An Amazon product designer said that before now “the tech just wasn’t ready” to provide the page-turn speed, resolution, and battery life the company wanted. ↓ 9 The 29-year-old uni admissions whiz Harvard University. Wikimedia Commons A hyper-elite US college admissions counseling firm has become a private equity darling and is now valued at over half a billion dollars. Crimson Education, run by 29-year-old Jamie Beaton, charges up to $200,000 for its yearslong programs that help students as young as 11 optimize their chances of eventually getting into Ivy League schools. His clients made up nearly 2% of students admitted to top colleges this year, The Wall Street Journal wrote. “He’s like the Steve Jobs of college counseling,” one Japanese student said. Beaton is part of a growing market tapping into the “rich vein of parental anxiety embedded in the college process,” the Journal wrote. The US now has around 10,000 full-time college consultants, up from 100 in 1990. ↓ 10 First universe map images released European Space Agency A project to create the largest and most accurate map of the universe has begun. The European Space Agency’s Euclid telescope is building a “cosmic atlas,” taking high-resolution images of the entire sky. The first 260 images, taken during a two-week spell in April, have been released: They reveal 14 million galaxies, hundreds of millions of light years away, some with supermassive black holes at their centers. When completed, the project could help explain the 95% of the universe that scientists label “dark matter” and “dark energy.” Although the map is already huge, and would require 16,000 ultra-high definition TV screens to display in full, it is just 1% of the planned atlas, New Scientist reported. ↓ Flagging Oct 17: The US releases its September retail sales data. NATO defense ministers have their first meeting under the alliance’s new Secretary-General Mark Rutte. The third season of The Lincoln Lawyer premieres on Netflix. ↓ Curio Zou Dehuai A Beijing photo exhibition honors a historical bright spot in Chinese-American relations. Known as the Flying Tigers, more than 250,000 US volunteer pilots fought against the Japanese alongside their Chinese counterparts during World War II, but as ideological differences widened, the alliance faded from view. Collector Zou Dehuai hopes his wartime photographs, showing at the Beijing American Center, will revive interest in a period of Sino-US cooperation that has accrued symbolic weight amid frosty relations between the superpowers. “Both China and the US were once allies, forgotten by history, and it should not be forgotten,” Zou told the South China Morning Post. “This friendship, of fighting shoulder to shoulder, should be remembered forever.” ↓ Hot on Semafor No matter who wins, the US is moving to the right. Giant money managers catch Washington heat. It’s a golden age for climate PR firms. You’re receiving this email because you signed up for newsletters from Semafor. Manage your preferences or unsubscribe here.Read our privacy policy Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get Semafor in your inbox. Semafor, Inc. 228 Park Ave S, PMB 59081, New York, NY, 10003-1502, USA