Months of fighting at the border threaten to ignite an all-out conflict that could devastate the region. 
In remarkable reporting for this week’s issue, Dexter Filkins provides a dispatch from both sides of the Lebanon-Israel border, where escalating violence between Hezbollah and Israeli forces has led to mounting civilian casualties and mass evacuations. Filkins has reported in the region for decades, and for this story he goes to great lengths—including having clandestine meetings with Hezbollah officials and commanders—to share an insider account of a conflict that may soon spiral out of control. Here is some of what he learned. - Hezbollah—which is backed by Iran—has been in conflict with Israel since the group’s inception, in the nineteen-eighties, but in the past year the fighting has grown dangerously intense. “We do not seek to wage a new war, or expand the war,” Hezbollah’s deputy secretary-general tells Filkins, “but, rather, to make the Israelis worried about continuing the war in Gaza.” Yet the ultimate decision may be out of the group’s hands. “The Iranians want us to escalate, so we are escalating,” a Hezbollah field commander says. “The Iranians control every bullet we have.”
- Political and economic destabilization in Lebanon has left the country shattered, with some citizens expressing frustration that Hezbollah might be provoking war. “I think if the Israelis attacked Hezbollah, a lot of people would cheer,” a member of Lebanon’s Christian community tells Filkins. A Lebanese columnist notes that “the social contract in Lebanon is broken—none of the communities coöperate anymore,” and adds, “If the Israelis attack, and they destroy Lebanon, I think there’s a good chance Lebanon will never come together again.”
- Although some political and military leaders in Israel have signalled wariness of an all-out conflict, others think a full-scale battle with Hezbollah is inevitable. “We will go to war with them one day—maybe a year, maybe two years,” a senior Israeli official says.
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Welcome to my geopolitics blog site. This is a Hawaii Island news site focusing on geopolitical news, analysis, information, and commentary. I will cite a variety of sources, ranging from all sides of the political spectrum.