CFR Daily News Brief

"Biden shakes up presidential race" and "Israel-Houthi clashes."

Views expressed in this Geopolitical News update are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 22 July 2024, 1351 UTC.

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

 

Daily News Brief July 22, 2024

Top of the Agenda Biden Steps Down, Endorses VP Harris in 2024 Election Shake Up U.S. President Joe Biden’s announcement yesterday that he will depart the presidential race and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris injected a new jolt of uncertainty into the election. The decision set off moves inside the Democratic Party ahead of next month’s party nominating convention and prompted public statements from leaders around the world. Biden’s decision came at a time of mounting concern among members of his own party about his age and ability to run effectively against Republican nominee Donald Trump. Biden said in a letter that he made the decision based on “the best interest of my party and the country,” becoming the first sitting U.S. president since 1968 to decline a reelection bid. He is due to address the nation later this week.  Harris thanked Biden for what she called a “selfless and patriotic act” and pledged to “earn and win” the party’s nomination; many senior Democratic elected officials quickly publicly endorsed her. U.S. allies voiced appreciation for Biden’s contributions to world politics, with many recognizing the difficulty of his decision. United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister Keir Starmer said that “as he has done throughout his remarkable career, President Biden will have made his decision based on what he believes is in the best interests of the American people.” (NYT, Reuters, CBS)

Analysis “Americans, I think, now have the democratic decision they deserve. They have [former President Donald] Trump and [Senator J.D.] Vance, a much more constrained, somewhat neo-isolationist view of foreign policy. I think the Democrats, regardless of the ticket, will continue to pursue a focus on alliances and robust American leadership,” CFR Senior Fellow Charles Kupchan says in this YouTube Short.  “It’s a perilous moment when the national strategy of a great power is so in question that an election could alter the country’s, or at least its leadership class’s, definition of the national interest. And it’s especially perilous for the international system when the country in question is a superpower,” Columbia University’s Timothy Naftali tells Foreign Affairs.   CFR’s 2024 election hub follows the foreign policy implications for Washington’s place in the world.

Pacific Rim China, Philippines Reach Preliminary Deal Over South China Sea Flashpoint The two countries reached a “provisional arrangement” to help de-escalate tensions in a fiercely disputed shoal of the South China Sea, where their sea forces have faced off in recent months, the Philippines’ Department of Foreign Affairs said yesterday. The countries did not release the text of the agreement; Beijing said it had agreed to “allow” Philippine resupply missions to access the area but said it would “supervise” them. (FT, AP)   This timeline tracks the latest in China’s maritime disputes. China: The government announced cuts to multiple interest rates today, a move intended to boost the economy as it faces a series of challenges. Last week, a closely-watched economic policy meeting ended without the announcement of major policymaking changes. (FT, SCMP)

South and Central Asia Bangladesh Scraps Much of Quota System That Triggered Protests The Supreme Court yesterday overturned a lower court’s decision to reinstate a controversial quota system for well-paid government jobs. It recommended that 93 percent of the jobs be awarded based on merit. Opposition to the quota system had triggered mass protests, resulting in more than one hundred deaths. (Nikkei) Azerbaijan/Armenia: Azerbaijan is proposing an interim peace deal with Armenia while a broader peace treaty remains held up over a provision in Armenia’s constitution, a senior Azerbaijani official said. The broader treaty would end the conflict over the former breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh, but Azerbaijan has called for Armenia to amend its constitution to remove an indirect reference to Karabakh independence. (Reuters)

Middle East and North Africa Israel Strikes Port in Yemen, Intercepts Incoming Missile Israeli fighter jets bombed a port in Yemen on Saturday in what was retaliation for a deadly strike on Tel Aviv by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels. The health ministry in Yemen’s Houthi-controlled capital said the strikes killed three people and wounded dozens of others. Yesterday, Israel’s military said it intercepted a missile fired from Yemen. (NYT) U.S./Israel: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu departed for Washington today, where he is due to address Congress on Wednesday and hold senior meetings with U.S. officials. Yesterday, his office announced it is sending a delegation to cease-fire talks this week regarding the conflict in Gaza. (Haaretz, Times of Israel)   In this Expert Brief, CFR Senior Fellow Steven A. Cook previews Netanyahu’s high-stakes visit.

Sub-Saharan Africa Ugandan Security Forces Block Off Opposition Headquarters Ahead of Demonstration The precautionary moves at the headquarters of the country’s largest opposition party come ahead of anti-government protests planned for tomorrow. Opposition figure Bobi Wine said several activists were detained. A police spokesperson did not immediately comment on the reported detentions. (Reuters) Tanzania: President Samia Suluhu Hassan replaced her foreign and information ministers yesterday. The cabinet reshuffle is part of measures to consolidate her government ahead of elections next year. (Anadolu)

Europe Ukraine Reaches Preliminary Deal to Restructure $20 Billion in National Debt The deal will reduce Ukraine’s previously scheduled bond payments by some 90 percent in the next three years. Kyiv had been granted a two-year moratorium on its debt repayments following Russia’s invasion in 2022, but that was due to expire in August. The new deal was reached with a creditor committee that represents around 25 percent of Ukraine’s bonds; at least two-thirds of bondholders will need to approve the agreement in order to finalize the debt restructuring deal. (FT, Bloomberg) UK: The United Kingdom will miss the Labour government’s target of a zero-carbon electricity system by 2030 unless some $62 billion is invested in wind and solar, energy consultancy Cornwall Insight said. In its first days in power, the Labour government removed a de facto ban on onshore wind farms; a spokesperson for the government said it was “taking immediate action” to meet its long-term clean energy plans. (The Guardian)

Americas Panama Expects Deportation Flights to Start for Darién Migrants in a Few Months Under a new deal, the United States is to fund deportation flights from Panama for certain migrants who crossed the Darién Gap, Panama’s jungle border with Colombia. A Panamanian migration official said Friday that he expects the flights to begin running in two to three months. (Reuters)   Venezuela: Argentina, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Paraguay, and Uruguay issued a joint statement of concern on Friday over the Venezuelan government’s “harassment and persecution” of opposition figures ahead of the July 28 presidential election. Last week, Venezuelan rights group Foro Penal said 102 people linked to the opposition had been detained this year, many of whom have since been released. (MercoPress, Bloomberg) The Center for Preventive Action looks at instability in Venezuela.

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