CFT Daily News Brief

"Diplomats push for Gaza cease-fire, hostage deal."

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

Daily News Brief June 5, 2024

Top of the Agenda

Reports: U.S. Envoys Make Diplomatic Push in Middle East for Cease-Fire, Hostage Deal

CIA Director William J. Burns and White House advisor Brett McGurk have been dispatched (Axios) to the Middle East to push for a U.S.-backed cease-fire and hostage-release deal between Israel and Hamas, unnamed sources told multiple news outlets. Amid the renewed diplomacy, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met with families of Americans being held by Hamas yesterday to detail the proposed deal, posting that it “must get done.”  While different parties consider the proposal, a string of incidents have also underscored the potential for further regional escalation of the conflict. Yesterday the Israeli military’s chief of staff said Israeli forces will soon determine their response (Times of Israel) to ongoing attacks in northern Israel by the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. This morning, a gunman was shot and captured (AP) after firing shots outside the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, the Lebanese military said. No motive was immediately clear, and Lebanese authorities said they were investigating the incident.

Analysis “To help Hamas fail, Israel should be doing everything in its power to give Palestinians in Gaza a sense that there is an alternative to Hamas and that a more hopeful future is possible,” the Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategy and Technology’s Audrey Kurth Cronin writes in Foreign Affairs. “Instead of merely destroying infrastructure and homes, Israel should also be sharing plans for rebuilding the territory in a post-Hamas future.”   “[Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu will have to choose between rebuffing the American president to save his rightwing coalition or accepting the deal for the sake of the hostages and his country’s long-term strategic interest,” Columbia University Institute of Global Politics’s Kim Ghattas writes in the Financial Times.  Read the full suite of Foreign Affairs and CFR.org resources on Israel and the current conflict.

Pacific Rim

Europe’s Imports of Chinese EVs to Spike Ahead of Expected Tariff Decision

The number of Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs) registered in western Europe between January and April rose 23 percent (FT) from the year before, according to data analysis firm Schmidt Automotive Research. They account for one-fifth of electric car imports to the region in spite of a 10 percent tariff. The European Union is carrying out a probe on whether China’s subsidies for its EV industry amount to unfair competition, with a deadline for announcing any new tariffs on July 4.    Japan: The fertility rate declined (Nikkei) for the eighth consecutive year to a record low of 1.20 children per woman in 2023, government data showed yesterday. Tokyo has increased some permissions for immigration to address this population shift.    At this meeting, University of Washington’s Christopher J. Murray joins CFR experts Thomas J. Bollyky and Ann Norris to discuss the implications of falling global fertility.

South and Central Asia

Myanmar’s Shadow Government Says Currency, Dollar Reserves Have Dropped

A group mainly composed of lawmakers who fled after the country’s 2021 coup estimated (Bloomberg) that Myanmar’s currency has fallen almost 70 percent against the dollar since 2021, and foreign currency reserves have dropped to around $3.8 billion or less. The estimates  are a more recent update on the country’s finances than the junta’s latest announcements. A junta spokesperson said only official data should be trusted. Afghanistan/Germany: Germany is weighing (Reuters) deporting Afghan migrants it deems a security threat back to Afghanistan, the interior minister said yesterday. Last week, a man originally from Afghanistan killed a German police officer at an anti-Islam event. Germany had ceased deportations to Afghanistan following the 2021 Taliban takeover due to safety risks in the country, and does not repatriate migrants to countries that threaten citizens' lives.

Middle East and North Africa

Egypt’s Foreign Currency Reserves Rebound After UAE Investment Deal

Egypt’s foreign currency reserves reached more than $46 billion (Al-Monitor) in May, their highest level in years, after a massive influx from the United Arab Emirates (UAE). But broader economic strains on the country still persist. The government hiked (Reuters) the price of subsidized bread in the country on June 1 for the first time in decades.    This In Brief by CFR’s Noah Berman explores whether Cairo’s economic overhaul can stave off a crisis.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Senior Sudan Officials Visit Russia, Mali, and Niger

Sudan’s deputy leader and ministers of foreign affairs, finance, and mining traveled to Russia (Bloomberg) on a multiday trip, while its defense minister and deputy military commander are visiting Niger and Mali, the military-backed government said this week. Russia’s private military company Wagner Group has been supporting the Sudanese Rapid Support Forces (RSF) rebels in their war against the government. Just days before the trips, Sudan’s government said it was considering a deal in which the Kremlin would establish a military fueling station on the Red Sea in exchange for weapons; an official Russian deal with the Sudanese army could end Wagner’s involvement with the RSF.   South Africa: The ruling African National Congress party held talks (Reuters) yesterday over how to form a governing coalition, with potential partners ranging widely, including opposing free-market and Marxist political groups. The new parliament must convene by June 16 to choose the country’s next president. For the Africa in Transition blog, CFR expert Michelle Gavin unravels the aftermath of South Africa’s landmark elections.

Europe

Biden Travels to Europe for D-Day Anniversary, Leader Meetings

U.S. President Joe Biden arrived in France today and will speak (AP) at an event marking the anniversary of the D-Day invasion of France. He will meet separately with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy while in France, and next week, he will attend a meeting of Group of Seven (G7) leaders in Italy. Russia/Turkey: A Kremlin spokesperson said that Russia welcomed (Anadolu) Turkey’s interest in the BRICS grouping of countries, named after its original members Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, after Turkey’s foreign minister said on a visit to China that he would attend the BRICS ministerial meeting in Russia beginning June 10.

Americas

Canada’s Need for Electricity Imports Reflects Climate Strains on Hydropower

Canada imported more electricity (NYT) from the United States in March than it has in more than a decade due to low water levels in the reservoirs that feed Canadian hydroelectric dams. Increased droughts due to climate change introduce risks to relying on hydropower, the world’s biggest source of renewable energy, the New York Times reported. Hydropower shortages in China, India, and Colombia last year caused those countries to turn to dirtier fuel sources. Mexico: A female mayor in western Mexico was killed (CNN) hours after Claudia Sheinbaum was elected the country’s first woman president, authorities said, following high levels of violence in the election itself. Authorities said yesterday that they were investigating the killing.

United States

Biden’s Executive Action Restricting Asylum at Border Designed to Take Effect Immediately

Biden’s actions on the border yesterday include a ban (WSJ) on asylum processing when undocumented migrant apprehensions reach 2,500 per day, a level that has been cleared for almost all of Biden’s presidency. The ban exempts unaccompanied children. Biden said he was forced to take action because Republicans blocked a bipartisan bill on the matter. Federal courts ruled that a similar measure issued by former President Donald Trump in 2018 was illegal.

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