"Erdogan is weakened. That's bad for Turkey's Democracy."
Views expressed in this geopolitical news update are those of the reporters and correspondents. Accessed on 05 June 2024, 2017 UTC.
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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).
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June 5, 2024 |
Hello, everyone. Today at WPR, we’re covering Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s weakened political position and the Tory Party’s messaging problems ahead of U.K. elections. |
But first, here’s our take on today’s top story: |
U.S. immigration: President Joe Biden announced new measures yesterday that will impose broad restrictions on migrants’ access to the U.S. asylum system when illegal crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border reach a seven-day average of 2,500 per day. Border crossings are currently at that level, meaning the new restrictions kicked in overnight. (Washington Post) |
Our Take: Biden’s decision to impose these restrictions is in many ways the culmination of a trend over the past decade that has seen immigration into the U.S. become an increasingly politicized and polarizing issue in domestic politics. |
Specifically, the number of crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border has been portrayed as a “crisis.” But to the extent that it is one, it is only because the U.S.—a large and wealthy country—has not expanded its capacity to receive and process migrants and asylum-seekers, largely because of a lack of political will to do so. In fact, there are serious questions about the U.S. capacity to even follow through on the restrictions that Biden announced yesterday. |
In light of the political obstacles to expanding reception capacity at the border, Biden came into office four years ago pledging a “root causes” approach to migration. The thinking goes that if the U.S. can work with regional governments to increase economic opportunities in countries of origin, it will reduce the push factors that drive people to migrate to the United States. Theoretically, the root causes approach would allow the U.S. to uphold its obligations under international law—namely, migrants’ right to seek asylum—while also reducing the number of people crossing the U.S.-Mexico border. |
The root causes strategy, though, hasn’t worked. In part, that’s because it is limited in scope, focusing mainly on a handful of countries in Central America, many of whose governments and corrupt elites contribute to the problem, rather than solve it. But it’s also because, somewhat counterintuitively, increasing economic opportunities in the short term actually increases emigration, as push factors remain but more people gain enough financial resources to make the journey to the U.S.-Mexico border. Meanwhile, the main pull factor—the opportunities represented by U.S. employers that hire undocumented immigrants at lower wages or for jobs that U.S. citizens eschew—has similarly gone unaddressed. |
As a result, Biden has felt pressure to adopt increasingly restrictive measures on immigration that often echo those imposed by his predecessor and current rival in this year’s election, former President Donald Trump. Of course, Biden has not resorted to the most draconian measures of the Trump era, but yesterday’s executive action easily marks the most restrictive border policy of any modern Democratic president. |
Facing a tight presidential contest against Trump in November, most pragmatists within his administration would argue that, from a political perspective, Biden had to do something to address the perceived crisis at the border. Indeed, polling shows that migration is a top issue for Democratic and Republican voters alike. But the problem for Biden is that migration is also a wedge issue in the Democratic Party, and these new measures have already outraged much of the party’s progressive wing. |
As we’ve written before, Biden is already dealing with a similar conundrum with regard to his support for Israel amid the war in Gaza. On both, Biden appears to be making a massive bet that he can hold the party together in spite of these divisions. |
Read more: |
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Assuming his health holds out and that he does not pull a rabbit—in the form of a constitutional revision—out of his hat to award himself yet another term, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will remain in office until 2028. Nevertheless, his political position seems more tenuous today than perhaps at any time since he survived a coup attempt in 2016. |
Erdogan’s domestic weakness is not likely to result in any “moderation” of his policies, however. To the contrary, the political drubbing that his ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, took in municipal elections in March is likely to result in greater attempts to consolidate power at home and sharper demonstrations of assertiveness abroad, at least in the short term, Howard Eissenstat writes. |
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Since the U.K.’s general election was announced, the governing Conservative Party has launched a series of policy proposals designed to improve the party’s fortunes. According to opinion polls, which still show a 20 percent lead for the opposition Labour Party, they haven’t had the desired effect. |
As a result, consultants whose careers depend on a reputation for successfully shaping public opinion will be even more tempted to blame PM Rishi Sunak as a flawed messenger, rather than reexamine the content of his campaign’s message, columnist Alexander Clarkson writes. |
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U.S. President Joe Biden is visiting France this week to take part in ceremonies marking the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings in Normandy. Biden’s attendance of the commemoration is the latest example of the importance he has placed on shoring up ties with Washington’s European allies since taking office. |
This week’s question: Is the trans-Atlantic alliance still vital to U.S. national interests? |
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Israel will reportedly decide soon whether to go on the offensive in its conflict with Hezbollah. The two sides have been engaged in a limited but deadly conflict across the Israeli border with Lebanon since the war in Gaza began. |
Israel’s impending decision will only add to fears that the conflict will escalate into a broader, open war. Western officials have been attempting to mediate some form of de-escalation to prevent that, but as Sam Heller wrote in March, there is only so much they can do without a cease-fire in Gaza. |
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Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that any French military instructors sent to Ukraine would be a “legitimate target” for Russian armed forces. The comments come amid rumors that French President Emmanuel Macron will soon announce the deployment of French trainers to Ukraine. |
Moscow has repeatedly warned that sending Western troops to Ukraine would escalate the war. But as Alex Crowther and Jahara Matisek argued in April, sending a non-NATO military mission to train Ukrainian forces and help protect Ukrainian territory would still be an effective way for the West to signal its collective resolve against Russia. |
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Outgoing Indonesian President Joko Widodo said the first phase of the country’s new capital is 80 percent complete and that the city, Nusantara, will be inaugurated in August. Jokowi, as he is known, has made building the new capital central to his legacy, especially as he has largely failed to deliver on many of his initial promises upon taking office 10 years ago. Read more in this briefing by Erin Cook. |
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A Russian cyber gang is believed to be behind a ransomware attack on Monday that targeted a number of London hospitals, the former head of British cybersecurity said. Ransomware attacks have increasingly targeted public sector institutions around the world, largely because they contain sensitive data, but also because they are less likely to have the resources to invest in up-to-date cybersecurity. Read more in this briefing by Alex White. |
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Welcome to my geopolitics blog site. This is a Hawaii Island news site focusing on geopolitical news, analysis, information, and commentary. I will cite a variety of sources, ranging from all sides of the political spectrum.