Axios PM

Big shift to democrats in the House of Representatives as election nears.

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PRESENTED BY BANK OF AMERICA
 
Axios PM
By Mike Allen · Oct 09, 2026

Happy Friday! Today's newsletter, edited by Alex Fitzpatrick and Avery Lotz, is 650 words, a 2½-min. read. Thanks to Sheryl Miller for copy editing.

📣 Bulletin: Former DHS spokesperson Katie Zacharia has been offered the job of White House press secretary. Zacharia is a conservative lawyer and commentator who's a senior communications adviser at Trump Media & Technology Group, which oversees Truth Social. Go deeper.

🚨 Situational awareness: A powerful magnitude 7.7 earthquake hit Panama today, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. The latest.

 
 
1 big thing: House races shift toward Dems
 
A table showing Cook
Data: The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. Chart: Erin Davis/Axios

The Cook Political Report today shifted 18 more U.S. House races toward Democrats despite Republicans' massive ad spending.

  • Democrats are now expected to gain nine to 19 seats, the nonpartisan forecast says.

🏛️ Cook's Erin Covey writes: "That would give them 224 seats on the lower end and 234 on the upper end." (218 seats make a House majority.)

  • "At this point, Democrats only need to win 20% of the [21] toss-ups to get to a majority, assuming the seats that favor Democrats in our ratings all break their way."

The shifts include:

  • Five seats — in Iowa, Pennsylvania and Washington — moving from toss-ups to leaning Democratic, including Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks' (R-Iowa) tough rematch against Democrat ⁠Christina Bohannan.
  • Cook nudged four races — in Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina and Virginia — from leaning Republican to toss-ups. That's good news for Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.), whose district was warped by mid-decade redistricting.
  • Republicans' hold on other races in Kentucky, Maine, Pennsylvania, Arkansas and Indiana slipped, shifting them to Lean R or Likely R. Democrats' hold on Nevada, New York and Nebraska races tightened.

Go deeper ... Explore Cook's analysis.

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2. 🤖 AI gender gap
 
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Stock: Getty Images

Women are far more negative about AI than men are, Axios' Emily Peck writes from a new Morgan Stanley report.

By the numbers: Morgan Stanley polled 2,000 consumers in late September about their overall perception of AI, positive or negative. It then measured net sentiment (subtracting one from the other).

  • Men were considerably more positive (+30%) than women (-1%).

📊 44% of women said they don't want a data center built near their home, compared with 36% of men.

  • 👩‍💻 Slightly more women (57%) said they didn't like AI because "it is developing too quickly without enough safeguards." That's compared to 54% of men.

Men were more likely to express concerns about data privacy (49% versus 39% of women).

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A MESSAGE FROM BANK OF AMERICA

Invested in America’s dreamers
 
 

In 1955, when Disneyland needed a bank that shared its vision, we were there.

The impact: Disneyland was constructed in Anaheim, Calif. and opened with a fully functioning Bank of America financial center on Main Street.

See how Bank of America invests in America's dreamers.

 
 
3. ⚡️ Catch me up
 
Residents board up an ice cream shop yesterday in Gulf Breeze, Fla. Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images
  1. 🌀 Hurricane Isaias strengthened into a major hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. Forecasters are warning of "life-threatening storm surge" from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Suwannee, Florida, plus damaging winds and power outages across the Gulf and inland. Latest forecast.
  2. 🏦 President Trump ordered a new investigation into allegations of mortgage fraud against Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook, directing a committee to question the central bank official at a White House hearing next month. More from Courtenay Brown.
  3. 🎤 Vice President JD Vance said he won't be watching the execution of Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan if it is livestreamed. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said yesterday that the Dec. 3 execution by firing squad would be "public." More from Josephine Walker.
  4. 🕯️ Chicago sports icon Mike Ditka died today at 86 after years of health issues. The former Bears player and coach left a lasting impression on the city's sports and culture, presiding over one of the best teams in NFL history. More from Axios Chicago's Justin Kaufmann.
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4. 🗡️ 1 for the road: Sith saber for sale
 
Darth Vader poses at a New York event in 2024. Photo: Evan Agostini/Invision/AP

A Darth Vader lightsaber prop used in the iconic scene where Vader tells Luke Skywalker "I am your father" is among the highlights of an upcoming Star Wars memorabilia auction.

  • The Vader saber is expected to fetch at least $1 million.

It's one of more than two dozen lightsaber props featured in the Nov. 12 auction.

  • Others include dueling lightsabers wielded by Ewan McGregor's Obi-Wan Kenobi and Hayden Christensen's Anakin Skywalker in "Revenge of the Sith," expected to go for at least $10,000 each.

Go deeper.

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A MESSAGE FROM BANK OF AMERICA

Invested in America’s dreamers
 
 

In 1955, when Disneyland needed a bank that shared its vision, we were there.

The impact: Disneyland was constructed in Anaheim, Calif. and opened with a fully functioning Bank of America financial center on Main Street.

See how Bank of America invests in America's dreamers.

 

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