Axios AM

"Bibi's last stand" and "Paxton privately blames the Iran War."

Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analysis are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 07 October 2026, 1232 UTC.

Content and Source:  "Axios AM."

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/FMfcgzQhWnsBRJfJqNmppvpRRbzkrrJF

Please check email link or scroll down to read your selections.  Thanks for joining us today.

Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

View in browser

PRESENTED BY ANTHROPIC

Axios AM

By Mike Allen · Oct 07, 2026

Happy Wednesday! Smart Brevity™ count: 1,880 words ... 7 mins. Thanks to Noah Bressner for orchestrating. Edited by Bill Kole. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit records yesterday, powered by investor bets on another blowout quarter for corporate profits. Go deeper. A weather system in the Gulf became Tropical Storm Isaias today, and it's expected to strengthen into the first hurricane of the Atlantic season. Get the latest.

1 big thing: Bibi's last stand

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photos via Getty Images

Israel is marking the third anniversary of the Oct. 7 terror attacks three weeks before an election where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's personal culpability for the country's worst-ever security failure will be a central issue, Axios' Barak Ravid and Dave Lawler write. Why it matters: Netanyahu has defied expectations by keeping his government afloat through years of simultaneous wars and perpetual emergency. Tight polls still leave the ultimate political survivor a path to hang on. The big picture: Oct. 7 still looms over the country and his candidacy. The opposition lambasts him for refusing to take responsibility or allow an independent inquiry into the Hamas attacks that killed around 1,200 people. Netanyahu's chief opponent, former Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, lost his son and two nephews during the war in Gaza. Sources close to Eisenkot say he sees his main mission as replacing the man he holds responsible for allowing the Oct. 7 attacks. Zoom in: Netanyahu blames the deep state, claiming his security chiefs kept him in the dark. His political and media allies have even spread conspiracy theories implying that those officials betrayed Israel. But recent reporting suggests Netanyahu had at least some warning. Israeli outlet Haaretz reported that United Arab Emirates President Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ) told Netanyahu that Hamas was planning a major operation days before the attack. Three knowledgeable sources confirm to Axios that UAE intelligence gave a general warning to its Israeli counterparts and that MBZ spoke to Netanyahu to make sure he received it. Netanyahu denies receiving the UAE warning and has sued several media outlets and journalists that reported he had. Between the lines: The vote could determine not just Netanyahu's political survival, but his legal future as well. Losing power would also mean losing any levers to delay or influence an ongoing corruption trial. But if he wins, Netanyahu could argue he was acquitted by the people of Israel and take stronger action to thwart the proceedings. The intrigue: President Trump could give Netanyahu a boost by endorsing him, but so far he's declined. Trump has privately blamed Netanyahu for the Oct. 7 failures, according to two people who have discussed the matter directly with the president. He's also mused about Netanyahu damaging Israel's international reputation. However, Trump has stuck close to Netanyahu during the war in Iran and may still endorse him. Share this story.

2. Paxton privately blames Iran war

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photos: Justin Lane-Pool, Sina Schuldt/picture alliance, and Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu via Getty Images

Texas Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton privately lamented the impact of the Iran war and gas prices on his campaign in a meeting last month, telling a group of donors and lobbyists, "I don't make the decisions," according to audio obtained by Axios' Andrew Solender and Stef W. Kight. Why it matters: It's a candid admission from a close Trump ally about the challenging environment Republicans face this cycle. Paxton, the Texas attorney general, was speaking to donors and lobbyists at a closed-door fundraiser in D.C. The audio was provided to Axios by a person, granted anonymity because it was a private event, who was in the meeting and is opposed to Paxton. President Trump is set to rally with Paxton in San Antonio today. What he said: Asked by one attendee what issues are "dragging" on his campaign, Paxton responded, "It's not tariffs. ... It's the war, it's gas prices, it's diesel," according to an audio file obtained by Axios. "When it's over $6 per gallon for diesel ... people are feeling the pinch," he continued, adding that the rising cost of fuel "drives up food prices and everything else." The Republican candidate said affordability is "by far our biggest problem" and "why we're having a hard time with numbers." Paxton pointed to his tax cut plan — which includes new housing and health care write-offs and an expansion of the child tax credit — as his proposed remedy on affordability. "I'm just trying to figure out ways I can help people. That's the only way: I can propose legislation," he said. "So many factors in this federal race are uncontrollable. I don't make the decisions, and I don't ... know what's behind some of the decisions," he added. Keep reading.

3. AI agent economy unfolds

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Stock: Getty Images

Axios CEO Jim VandeHei writes in his weekly C-Suite newsletter: We're getting a live look into the post-app, post-web world: Meta's new personal agent, Muse — the #1 free app on Apple's App Store in the U.S. — and Microsoft's new Copilot for Business are built on the same premise about where this is headed. Why it matters: We won't use apps (life) or software (work) to get things done. We'll tell AI agents, each running on its own cloud computer, and they'll do it for us. This is happening now. Ben Thompson, whose Stratechery is essential reading for tech thinkers, lays it out in his latest essay, "Apps, Agents, and Aggregation." He can be dense and deep in the weeds. Read him anyway. 1. You (Muse): You text your agent, and it gets the job done. Once you grant permission, it plugs into your email, calendar, payments and shopping, doing the clicking and scheduling you'd otherwise do with apps and websites. That's why Amazon blocked Muse, Thompson explains: An agent shopping for you never sees or clicks on Amazon's ads. Instinct, an invite-only Muse competitor lighting up Silicon Valley, just raised $1B at a $10B valuation — 4x its value ONE MONTH earlier. 2. Your business (Copilot, OpenAI's dots, Muse for Small Business): Same idea, but built for the enterprise. The competition in this space is intense. Microsoft's new Autopilot works overnight, monitors Teams channels and handles follow-ups. You tag it like a colleague, and any employee can build and share an internal app or solution on the spot. Both Meta (Muse for Small Business) and OpenAI (dots) rolled out their versions this week. Anthropic's entire business is built around business. Thompson's bet: No human will touch clunky enterprise software again. Why would you, when an agent can customize what you need cheaply and instantly? Reality check: Trust is the hurdle. Just 8% of Americans say they'd trust Meta with their passwords, and 58% wouldn't share them with any AI agent, according to an Oppenheimer survey. If you're a CEO or on a CEO's team: Apply now to join Jim's new Axios C-Suite weekly newsletter. Share this story.

A MESSAGE FROM ANTHROPIC

How a badge-maker uses Claude to harness 170+ years of experience

VH Blackinton has handcrafted first-responder badges in the U.S. since 1852. When a wave of retirements threatened deep institutional knowledge, the team used Claude to turn it into a living record for the whole factory floor. Learn more.

4. Senate shocker: Toss-up Kansas

Chart: The New York Times In a major Senate shift, Cook Political Report yesterday moved Kansas — yes, Kansas — from lean Republican to toss-up, citing "perhaps a perfect confluence of events." Cook also moved New Hampshire from toss-up to lean Democrat, and North Carolina from lean Democrat to likely Democrat. The N.Y. Times/Siena poll (charted above) gives Democrats a lead among likely voters in the Senate races in Texas and Alaska, each of which usually votes Republican. Democrats have an edge in Ohio, which has trended red for years. Republicans have an edge in Iowa. Kansas, which hasn't voted for a Democratic senator since 1932, is neck and neck. More from the poll (gift link).

5. Fox News turns 30

Data: Nielsen. Chart: Christine Wang/Axios Fox News turns 30 today with a distinction few legacy TV networks can claim: Its ratings lead over rivals has never been wider, Axios Media Trends author Sara Fischer writes. Last year, the network averaged 1.69 million total-day viewers, compared with 551,000 for MS NOW and 432,000 for CNN. Through Sept. 29, Fox is outpacing CNN and MS NOW combined this year in both total day viewership and primetime. Then and now: Sean Hannity, who joined the network in 1996, hosts the primetime "Hannity." Photos: Fox News The big picture: Fox News launched Oct. 7, 1996. Fox News Media president and executive editor Jay Wallace, who has been with the network alongside CEO Suzanne Scott since launch, attributes the brand's durability to consistent ownership and strategy. "We've had a pretty consistent model for 30 years," Wallace told Sara. He credited the Murdochs' stewardship for allowing the network to be creative in developing new products and pursuing challenging stories. Keep reading ... Watch the first broadcast ... Anchor reflections ... Anniversary page.

6. Behind the scenes: Racing to AGI

Kevin Roose signs books yesterday at a breakfast for Tammy Haddad's Washington Women Technology Network/Washington AI Network. Photo: Mike Allen/Axios Kevin Roose — longtime New York Times tech writer and podcaster, now putting on his founder cap and launching the Machine Gods media company — is out with "The AGI Chronicles," which he worked on for 12 years, about the race for artificial general intelligence, or humanlike AI capability. Roose, trying to capture what it's like to live in the Bay Area during the birth of humanity's most powerful technology, writes that in a reflective moment, Demis Hassabis — the Nobel laureate who chairs Google DeepMind and is Alphabet's chief scientist — "told a colleague that he wanted to build a control room in DeepMind's headquarters where he could watch AGI being born." Hassabis said he envisioned "a tiered spectator gallery, like the ones at NASA Mission Control, with huge arrays of screens on the wall and hundreds of stadium seats. He wanted everyone at DeepMind to sit there together on the day that AGI was released into the world, cheering for it as it cured diseases, made new scientific discoveries, and solved problems that had eluded humans for centuries. He wanted them to bear witness to the most important event in history — the birth of a new kind of god, a thinking machine capable of unlocking the mysteries of the universe." "Machine Gods," billing itself as "the official podcast of the singularity," launches the week of Oct. 19 with Roose and his former "Hard Fork" co-host, Platformer proprietor Casey Newton. Get the book ... Read the NYT review (gift link).

7. Alex Taylor: Treat adoptions like a child's birth

Alex Taylor accepts the Angels in Adoption award. Photo: Congressional Coalition on Adoption Institute

Alex Taylor — chairman and CEO of Cox Enterprises, which owns Axios — said in accepting an award from the Congressional Coalition on Adoption Institute (CCAI) that employers can take a very tangible step to encourage employees to give vulnerable kids a new home and a new start. "One thing we do that many other companies don't," he said, "is we treat adoptions the same way we treat the birth of a child. Families that adopt a child are given the same benefits in terms of parental leave and financial assistance as birth parents." The big picture: The Congressional Coalition on Adoption (CCA) is Congress' historically largest bicameral, bipartisan caucus. As part of Angels in Adoption, Atlanta-based Cox Enterprises was recognized as CCAI's Corporate National Angel "for its longstanding commitment to strengthening communities, supporting families, and investing in opportunities that help people and communities thrive. Through its corporate philanthropy, employee volunteerism, and community partnerships, Cox works to address barriers and expand opportunity." The annual Angels in Adoption celebration, held at the Capitol Turnaround in Washington, drew Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.). Read Alex's LinkedIn post.

8. 1 for the road: Messi's farewell

Lionel Messi waves during his final game for the Argentina national team. Photo: Matias Baglietto/Reuters Lionel Messi played his final game for the Argentina national team last night — bidding farewell to international soccer after 21 years, 125 goals and a World Cup championship. The Argentine soccer federation turned the exhibition game into a national farewell billed as "the last tango." Photo: Alessia Maccioni/Reuters A drone display honored Messi at the end of the match. Go deeper.

A MESSAGE FROM ANTHROPIC

How SoFlo Solar runs their business with help from Claude

Luis Galarza and Laura Gutierrez founded SoFlo Solar to restore solar power for homeowners left with broken systems after installers went out of business. Claude helps them diagnose equipment, translate for crews and log every job. Learn more.

Thanks for reading! Please invite your friends to join AM.

Like this comms style and format? It's called Smart Brevity®. Bring it to your org — via hands-on training or internal comms software — to harness its power and impact.

Axios thanks our partners for supporting our journalism. Advertise with us. Read more about Axios' mission, ethics and how we use AI in our journalism. You can reach the authors by replying to this email. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. Thank you for signing up for this Axios newsletter. To stop receiving this newsletter, unsubscribe or manage your email preferences. If someone forwarded this to you, sign up now to get Axios in your inbox. Axios, PO Box 101060, Arlington VA 22201

Follow Axios across: