WPR-Weekly Review

"China's overcapacity denial" and "America's misguided Libya initiative."

Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analysis are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 09 August 2026, 2137 UTC.

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

August 09, 2026 Hi everyone, this is Elliot Waldman, WPR’s editor-in-chief. Welcome back to our Weekly Review, where we recap the highlights from our coverage over the last week and preview what’s on deck. If you have any comments or feedback, just hit reply to send them along. Top Stories Here are some of the week’s major developments that we covered in our Daily Review newsletter. (If you don’t already receive the Daily Review, you can adjust your settings here.):     The U.S.-Israel Relationship on the Ballot: Democratic primary voters went to the polls last Tuesday in several U.S. states to choose their party’s candidates for the midterm elections in November, as they seek to recoup some of their losses from 2024 and build momentum heading into the presidential election cycle in 2028. In a closely watched Senate primary race in Michigan, former public health official Abdul El-Sayed narrowly beat Rep. Haley Stevens, the establishment’s favored candidate. The contest attracted attention for highlighting two prominent fault lines … Read more here or upgrade to premium now to receive the full weekly newsletter every Sunday.         Ethiopia and Tigray Inch Back Toward War: Hundreds of people fled Ethiopia’s Tigray region into neighboring Sudan this past week after clashes erupted between federal forces and Tigrayan fighters near the border. It was the most serious fighting since the end of the war between the two sides in 2022. The region’s ruling Tigray People’s Liberation Front said … Read more here or upgrade to premium now to receive the full weekly newsletter every Sunday.         Hiroshima, Memory and the Nuclear Taboo: Commemorations were held in Hiroshima on Thursday to mark the 81st anniversary of the U.S. atomic bombing of the Japanese city in the final weeks of World War II. At the ceremony, which was attended by over 100 foreign dignitaries and representatives, Mayor Matsui Kazumi took nuclear-armed states to task for refusing to divest themselves of their nuclear arsenals, while criticizing all states that continue to wage war. “Downplaying the inhumanity of nuclear weapons and accepting the use of force …” Read more here or upgrade to premium now to receive the full weekly newsletter every Sunday.     The Week’s Highlights Containers parked at Shanghai Port Container Trade Terminal in Shanghai, China, July 14, 2026 (Costfoto for NurPhoto via AP) Beijing Still Doesn’t Think Overcapacity Is a Problem. On Tuesday, Mary Gallagher looked at Beijing’s first official response to allegations of overcapacity in Chinese industry, in the form of a report from its Commerce Ministry. Excessive production in key sectors has been blamed for undermining manufacturing and employment in China's trading partners by flooding export markets with goods produced below market costs. The Commerce Ministry report, tellingly titled “China's Position on the So-Called Excess Capacity Issue,” is a full-throated rejection of the overcapacity problem. But it is also much more than that: It is the Communist Party's attempt to defend economic globalization and China's position in it as the “world's factory.” It is supremely defensive, but also overconfident. Reading it will not reassure China's interlocutors abroad. The target audience is first and foremost … Upgrade to premium now to receive the full weekly newsletter every Sunday. Trump’s Reunification Initiative in Libya Will Only Prolong the Gridlock. And on Wednesday, Mustafa Fetouri examined the Trump administration’s plan for Libyan reunification, which marks a distinct shift in Washington’s strategy toward the fractured country. Massad Boulos, a senior adviser to President Trump on Middle East affairs, has explicitly acknowledged a sweeping “American initiative” for Libya. For more than a decade, Libya has been divided between rival power structures: A U.N.-recognized Government of National Unity (GNU) controls the west, while warlord Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army governs the east. Boulos described the plan as a temporary power-sharing arrangement: Abdulhamid Dbeibeh, head of the GNU, would serve as prime minister, while Saddam Haftar, Khalifa Haftar's son, would become head of a reformed Presidential Council. To sweeten the deal, Boulos dangled the ultimate transactional prize: an invitation to a formal White House signing ceremony presided over by Trump himself. The problem with this plan is that it … Upgrade to premium now to receive the full weekly newsletter every Sunday. The Week’s Most-Read Story Smoke billows following Ukrainian drone strikes on warehouses of Russia’s online retailer Wildberries, in St. Petersburg, July 24, 2026. (UGC via AP) Ukraine’s ‘Warehouse War’ Is Hitting Russia Hard. And in this week’s top story by page views, Candace Rondeaux looked at Ukraine’s tactic of targeting the warehouses of Russian online retailers Wildberries and Ozon: Kyiv’s drone campaign is likely to force Wildberries and Ozon to rethink their business models and revamp their distribution networks. The collapse of European trade routes under sanctions imposed since the start of the war in 2022 pushed Russia’s commerce eastward toward India, China and the Asia-Pacific region, but much of the storage stayed where the customers and labor are: More than 60 percent of Russian warehouse capacity is situated near Moscow and St. Petersburg, well within drone range. The arrangement made the network cheap to run and simple to hit. To reduce their exposure, the e-commerce giants will need … Upgrade to premium now to receive the full weekly newsletter every Sunday. What’s On Tap And coming up this week, we’ve got: Giorgio Cafiero on Central Asian states’ efforts to normalize ties with Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. Arsalan Bukhari on the state of play in India-administered Kashmir, seven years after the government revoked the region’s special autonomous status. Moritz Graefrath on Germany’s military recruitment crisis. That’s it for now. Until Monday, —Elliot Waldman The Week On WPR Africa   Ethiopia and Tigray Inch Back Toward War Clashes that erupted between federal forces and Tigrayan fighters this weekend marked the most serious fighting since the end of the civil war in 2022. Americas   Trump Is Bringing the War on Terror to Latin America U.S. efforts to aggressively wage combat against drug cartels are not only legally spurious, but also ineffective.   The U.S. Is Missing an Economic Agenda for Latin America Latin America’s rightward shift is an opportunity for Trump, but capitalizing on it will require competing with China’s promises of trade and investment.   Hernández’s Return to Honduras Tees Up a Presidential Power Struggle Honduras’ controversial former leader is expected to get involved in politics again, putting President Nasry Asfura in a tough spot. Asia-Pacific   Hiroshima, Memory and the Nuclear Taboo With the number of nuclear survivors dwindling, the world is losing the witnesses who ensure that our collective historical memory can motivate action.   Beijing Still Doesn’t Think Overcapacity Is a Problem China’s first official response to industrial overcapacity allegations assails its critics and defends its position as the “world’s factory.” Europe   Ukraine’s ‘Warehouse War’ Is Hitting Russia Hard Kyiv’s drone strikes are are putting pressure on Russia’s e-commerce giants and straining its banking system.   Spain and the EU Reel From the Ceuta Crisis The repercussions of last week’s massive spike in migrant arrivals continue to be felt within Spain and the European Union, even as its causes remain uncertain. Middle East & North Africa   Iran Is the First ‘Missile War,’ But It Won’t Be the Last All signs point toward a future in which militaries continue to reduce their reliance on traditional ground troops.   Trump’s Reunification Initiative in Libya Will Only Prolong the Gridlock The proposed power-sharing agreement offers no credible path to elections or long-term political stability.   The U.S.-Saudi Nuclear Deal Is a Symptom of Middle East Policy Delusions The fate of the agreement may be up in the air, but it was motivated by pathologies that have perverted U.S. Middle East policy for decades.   The Iran War Gave the GCC a Chance to Unite. It Chose Not to The conflict has only exposed deep tensions within the bloc, which only look set to harden, weakening its potential leverage. United States   The U.S.-Israel Relationship Is on the Ballot A further erosion in U.S. public attitudes toward Israel seems all but inevitable. What it will mean for U.S. foreign policy, however, is far from certain. Global   The 21st-Century Authoritarian’s Playbook The new wave of autocratic rulers gains power at the ballot box, then manipulates the levers of power to perpetuate their rule.

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