Semafor Flagship-The World Today

"US presses China on Iran, Taiwan's defense binge, Europe faces drone threat."

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Taipei  Buenos Aires  Stockholm August 21, 2026 Read on the web Flagship Sign up for our free email briefings→   The World Today US presses China on Iran Taiwan’s defense binge Europe faces drone threat The case for engaging Kim Bond buyback’s fallout Vance faces GOP criticism Milei’s economic challenges DRC gets Ebola vaccines Big food, small appetites The growth of Nordic wine A collection of essays that explores ‘how memory and forgetting can be acts of both survival and resistance.’ ↓ 1 US presses China over Iran Hasnoor Hussain/Reuters The US pressed China to “get with the program” and join an economic pressure campaign against Iran, part of Washington’s broader pivot away from military tools as it seeks to end the Middle East conflict. The remarks by the Treasury secretary come ahead of the expected unveiling next week of new US sanctions against Tehran. But his call for support from Beijing — which wields considerable economic leverage over Iran — comes at a tricky time: The superpowers have largely adhered to a recent trade truce, but tensions are growing ahead of a summit next month between their leaders. Beijing is also skeptical of Washington’s campaign, with a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman saying “sanctions and pressure” would not resolve the US-Iran war. For more on the Middle East conflict, subscribe to Semafor’s Gulf briefing. → ↓ 2 Taiwan plans record defense budget Ann Wang/Reuters Taiwan’s government proposed a record defense budget for next year in response to growing military pressure from Beijing. China, which regards the island as a renegade province, has increasingly deployed its military close to Taiwan and has been building new, permanent structures in its exclusive economic zone, in what experts say is a bid to “salami slice” its de facto sovereignty. The $31 billion spending program Taipei unveiled is one of a number of efforts to respond, such as expanding live-fire exercises to include the use of first-person view drones and simulating a maritime blockade. But while the US backs Taiwan’s increased defense spending, domestic political opinion is divided, and the Beijing-friendly opposition blocked a previous defense budget. For more on China’s relations with Taiwan, subscribe to Semafor’s China briefing. → ↓ 3 Russia incursions test Europe An explosion following what the Romania’s defense ministry said in June was a detonation of Russian drone fragments. Romanian Defence Ministry/Handout via Reuters A Romanian jet destroyed a naval drone near a Black Sea gas platform, in what European officials said was part of an escalating series of threats by Russia. Hours earlier, Bucharest had warned of a drone entering its airspace, echoing a similar incident this week when Finland said a suspected Russian aircraft violated its airspace, too. The European Council on Foreign Relations noted recently that EU countries are struggling to coordinate an effective response to escalating drone threats. “This is all happening against the backdrop of the growing number of US and European intelligence warnings that Russia could launch an attack against a NATO country,” an analyst noted. “If this isn’t war, I’m not sure what is.” ↓ 4 N. Korea ‘window of opportunity’ North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency via Reuters US President Donald Trump’s criticism of South Korea may have stoked fears among Asian allies, but his effort to reengage North Korea is a worthwhile one, several experts argued. A “maximalist negotiating position” pushing Pyongyang to denuclearize is now likely obsolete given the pariah state is effectively a nuclear-armed country, an analyst at the conservative Cato Institute argued, while Trump’s scaling back of joint exercises with Seoul represents “a minor unilateral concession” that the White House could now use to push for “incremental achievements.” The timing is also key: “This window of opportunity closes when Trump leaves office,” three experts wrote in Foreign Policy. “The cost of trying is low. The potential cost of another decade of drift is not.” ↓ 5 US bond markets on edge The US Treasury secretary’s pledge to expand a bond buyback program in order to lower borrowing costs did little to quell market unease. Scott Bessent’s remarks to CNBC followed this week’s announcement of the government’s unusual intervention in longer-dated debt, a move that initially cooled bond yields before the optimism fizzled. Economists have voiced skepticism over the long-term impact of the strategy: One told The Wall Street Journal it was “a Band-Aid … [that] doesn’t really fix the problem,” which experts say includes Washington’s surging debt levels, persistent inflation, and worries over broader corporate borrowing to fuel an AI buildout. “It’s a little bit like paying your mortgage with your credit card,” a JP Morgan analyst told CNBC. ↓ Semafor Exclusive 6 Economic battle brewing in GOP Criticism of US Vice President JD Vance’s economic policies by free-market Republicans hints at a coming battle within the party ahead of the 2028 presidential election. A 2023 video of Vance — a frontrunner, albeit an undeclared one, for the GOP nomination — arguing that the dollar’s reserve-currency status was a huge cost for the US recently went viral, with opposition to the remarks setting out “the contours for the conflicts that are going to emerge in the Trump administration over what right-of-center economic policy and thinking looks like in the future,” one populist economist told Semafor’s Eleanor Mueller. The debate is timely: Vance is due to deliver a speech about the economy today in his home state of Ohio. For more on the GOP’s wranglings, subscribe to Semafor’s twice-daily US politics briefing. → ↓ 7 Argentina beats growth forecasts Argentina’s economy expanded faster than expected in June, a boost for President Javier Milei as he grapples with persistently high inflation and growing public frustration over his libertarian agenda. Milei has won plaudits from the World Bank and IMF for seeking to cut public-sector spending and slash red tape, but huge challenges remain. Economists project inflation will sit around 30% by year-end, and growth overall is slowing. Halfway through his presidential term, around 70% of voters rate Argentina’s economic situation negatively and increasing numbers are voicing anger over wages and unemployment, El País noted. Some issues are also of his own making: Milei’s public support for the right-wing challenger to Brazil’s presidency is “potentially economically destructive,” one leading economist noted. ↓ Download This Are we seeing the death of the social media follower? Rachel Karten thinks so. On this week’s episode of Mixed Signals, the social media consultant and Link in Bio newsletter author joins Max and Ben to talk about how the shift from follower-based to algorithm-driven distribution broke the contract between platforms and creators, why brands are quietly building their own shows without telling anyone they’re behind them, and what the regulatory gap around paid content is actually doing to the feed. Listen to the latest Mixed Signals now. ↓ 8 DRC gets 70,000 Ebola jabs Gradel Muyisa Mumbere/Reuters The Democratic Republic of Congo was allocated 70,000 doses of an Ebola vaccine effective in prior epidemics, as health authorities scrambled to contain the largest-ever outbreak of the disease. Merck’s Ervebo inoculation has been approved for the Zaire Ebola strain, but the World Health Organization acknowledged that “it is not known” whether it can help address the latest outbreak. Multiple vaccines are being developed to combat the new variant, Bundibugyo, but are likely still months away. The move points to the challenge facing health workers, who must overcome misinformation, poor infrastructure, and an ongoing civil conflict: The US State Department warned of a “long and challenging” road ahead in ending the crisis as the death toll tops 2,500. For the latest on the Ebola outbreak, subscribe to Semafor’s Africa briefing. → ↓ 9 Food for the uninterested Soaring US sales of semaglutide and other GLP-1 weight management drugs have forced packaged-food makers to rethink their recipes as they seek to win over the not-so-hungry. Around 12% of US adults are believed to use GLP-1s for weight loss, with the global market for the medications expected to grow to $200 billion by 2030. The boom in sales has in turn led to a shift in the types of foods Americans buy: A recent Cornell University report showed that within six months of starting on a GLP-1 medication, households reduce spending at fast-food restaurants and other limited-service eateries by about 8%. “They just lose the craving, the desire for food,” a director at food giant Conagra said. ↓ 10 Swedish wine makes a splash Yves Herman/Reuters Climate change has made parts of Sweden warm enough for vine cultivation, with new winemakers now producing world-class products there. Immelen — a white blend from the Skåne region of southern Sweden known as “Nordic Tuscany” — was served to members of the Nobel academy after it won a 2024 competition against well-known producers from France, Italy, and Spain, marking Swedish wine’s coming-out party. But while climate change is making it possible to grow grapes further north, Swedish producers say they still face the brunt of erratic weather. Warmer temperatures have made planting seasons unpredictable, while recent droughts have impacted swaths of Scandinavia. “Climate change is also bad for us,” the maker of Immelen told The Economist. ↓ Flagging The Tate brothers respond to US prosecutors’ bid to keep them jailed in Miami, as they fight extradition to the UK. Indonesia’s defense minister hosts his Chinese counterpart in Jakarta. Washington DC hosts the Freedom 250 Grand Prix. ↓ Semafor Recommends The Memory Museum by M Lin. This debut collection of short stories delves into the lives of a woman in New Zealand recalling Tiananmen Square, laborers and thieves allying in Shanghai, and a wealthy Pittsburgh woman’s affair with her masseur. It “tackles what it means to be a part of — or apart from — China, and how memory and forgetting can be acts of both survival and resistance,” wrote China Books Review, which recommended the collection as part of its summer reading list. Buy The Memory Museum from your local bookstore. ↓ Semafor Spotlight The Scoop: The Massachusetts progressive will transfer $600,000 from her campaign account to Democratic committees working on the midterms, as Republicans maintain a cash advantage. → You’re receiving this email because you signed up for briefings from Semafor. Manage your preferences or unsubscribe here. Read our privacy policy. Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get Semafor in your inbox. Semafor, Inc. 228 Park Ave S, PMB 59081, New York, NY, 10003-1502, USA