Semafor Flagship-The World Today

"Canada's stiff retaliation, Cracks in US Iran plan, CIA director visits Russia."

Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analysis are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed n 26 August 2026, 0212 UTC.

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

Toronto  Moscow  Singapore August 26, 2026 Read on the web Flagship Sign up for our free email briefings→   The World Today Canada’s tariff retaliation Cracks in US’ Iran plan CIA director visits Russia Bessent mentor’s warning AI models security fears Unitree post-listing slump Data center gas surge Flock camera backlash Obesity in India, China Singapore birth rate crisis Remembering the late country music icon Dolly Parton. ↓ 1 Canada announces retaliatory tariffs Anna Rose Layden/Reuters Canada struck back against the US with retaliatory tariffs of up to 50% on $20 billion worth of American products on Tuesday, as a defiant Ottawa fulfilled its vow to match US duties “dollar for dollar.” US President Donald Trump threatened to rename Lake Ontario as Lake America, as relations hit a new low, making any climbdown more onerous. Canada’s industrial minister said reprisals were intended to apply economic pressure in US states ahead of November’s midterm elections. The breakdown in relations is an in-kind gift to Democrats in battleground states, a source close to the Trump administration told Politico. “If this gets worse, congressional Republicans… are going to be the first ones to feel it.” ↓ 2 Cracks in US’ new Iran plan Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters US President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran’s economy is doomed to fail, a former member of his Iran negotiating team argued. Washington’s effort to sanction countries doing business with Tehran “poses a greater threat to US credibility” than to the regime’s economy, Nate Swanson wrote in Foreign Affairs. Already in the throes of an economic crisis, Iran’s leaders have little to lose by retaliating against economic pressure “with the kind of military escalation [Trump] now seems keen to avoid,” The New York Times noted. The ​more effective the US sanctions, a Reuters columnist argued, “the more they incentivize Iran to ​hit back with every ⁠military means at its disposal.” ↓ 3 US spy chief visits Moscow Leah Millis/Reuters CIA Director John Ratcliffe was in Moscow Tuesday for unannounced talks with the Kremlin, in the first such visit by a US spy chief since 2021. Washington asked Kyiv to pause strikes during Ratcliffe’s four-hour trip. While details of his meetings weren’t released, the talks could have touched on a prisoner release or Russia’s support for Iran. Recent intelligence reports indicate that Russia — facing mounting battlefield and economic pressures — could launch limited attacks on NATO members, and experts suggested Ratcliffe was there to warn Moscow against escalation: “It could be to say ‘We know what you are thinking about doing, and you better not,’” a former US intelligence official told The Wall Street Journal. ↓ 4 Bessent mentor pans bond buybacks The chorus of voices criticizing US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s bond buyback strategy grew Tuesday, with the harshest rebuke yet coming from a former mentor. “Governments defending prices against fundamentals always lose,” investor Stanley Druckenmiller argued — with the help of AI — in The Wall Street Journal. “The only variable is how much they spend before conceding.” Bessent has indicated the operations will continue, but they “lack the credible promise of overwhelming financial firepower,” ABN Amro’s chief economist wrote, though even Federal Reserve action would fail to address the US’ abysmal fiscal situation. “Bonds are cheaper than they have been in years” amid roaring AI capex, perilously high debt-to-GDP ratios, and stubborn inflation, Barclays analysts noted. “They are still not cheap enough.” ↓ 5 New AI model sparks cybersecurity fears Laurie Chen/Reuters Chinese AI lab Z.ai is releasing an open-weight model on Friday that it says rivals frontier Western AI in cybersecurity capabilities, reigniting debates over whether advanced technologies should be publicly accessible. After several hacking incidents, AI firms are rethinking how they test powerful models: Some are considering disconnecting tests from the internet, which others argue makes it harder to gauge models’ true capabilities. A former OpenAI board member suggested there may be more breaches than we know of, likening the situation to seeing two ants in your kitchen and concluding it’s only a “two-ant problem.” Experts fear Z.ai’s model could make superhuman hacking prowess free-to-download, but others believe it could “allow everyone to defend themselves,” The New York Times wrote. For more on the latest developments in the AI race, subscribe to Semafor Tech. → ↓ 6 Unitree slide ignites bubble concerns Tingshu Wang/Reuters Shares in Chinese robot maker Unitree have retreated more than 45% from their debut peak, inflicting pain on retail investors and prompting bubble fears. “Investors were carried ​away by the technology revolution narrative,” a Beijing asset manager told Reuters. China’s newest corporate star, Unitree’s founder has downplayed expectations, saying the firm is “lagging behind” in real-world applications. A flood of new tech shares hitting the market in Hong Kong and Shanghai has worried investors: Alibaba’s record share sale, coupled with the massive IPO plans of memory chipmaker YMTC, caused the industry writ large to take a hit on concerns that more Chinese tech firms will follow, “essentially spreading the cost of AI investment across the public and investors,” one analyst said. Subscribe to Semafor China for more scoops and stories on Beijing’s rising tech sector. → ↓ 7 Gas powers US data center boom The US is building twice as much gas-fired capacity as China, largely to power data centers, a new report said, illustrating the superpowers’ diverging energy strategies. The capacity of gas-fired power plants being planned exclusively to power US data centers nearly doubled in the first half of the year, Global Energy Monitor found. American tech companies have increasingly turned to private power sources as public grids struggle to feed the massive energy demand of the frenzied AI buildout. While the approach could reduce electricity bills for households — a flashpoint in growing public backlash to data center construction — it also threatens to increase emissions, the report noted. China’s AI buildout, meanwhile, “is really oriented around renewables,” an analyst told WIRED. Subscribe to Semafor’s Energy briefing for more insights on the tech, money, and geopolitics behind the energy transition. → ↓ 8 Flock cameras draw backlash Brian Snyder/Reuters People across the US are vandalizing Flock Safety systems — providers of AI-assisted cameras and software that share data with law enforcement agencies — as the backlash against surveillance grows in the country. The Atlanta-based firm has in recent years installed 120,000 cameras in all but one US state, capturing around 20 billion license plates a month. While police departments have defended its use, the system has nonetheless drawn bipartisan rebukes, including from US President Donald Trump, amid broader concerns about AI snooping: Critics have also lashed out at Meta’s new camera-enabled glasses, which make it easy to record people without them noticing. “It’s just a sort of suffocating atmosphere to be a part of,” a law expert told The Verge. ↓ 9 Tackling obesity in India, China Francis Mascarenhas/Reuters Some of the world’s biggest food companies have resisted India’s efforts to cut down consumption of high-calorie snacks, helping contribute to a soaring obesity rate. Following pushback from industry executives, regulators have abandoned efforts to impose warning labels on products such as Fanta, a fizzy drink which in India contains more than three times the amount of sugar than it does in the UK, Reuters reported. A recent Lancet report suggested 450 million people in India could be overweight or obese by 2050. Meanwhile, in China, where the obesity rate could surpass 65% by 2030, pharma companies are promoting weight-loss campaigns to sell their GLP-1 drugs as a workaround to rules that forbid direct advertising for prescription medications. ↓ 10 Singapore’s bid to boost birth rates Singapore is offering parents as much as $55,000 per child in an urgent bid to boost its birth rate, joining other East Asian nations in attempts to combat a demographic crisis. The city-state’s fertility rate fell to just 0.87 children per woman, far below the replacement rate of 2.1 needed to keep populations stable, putting it on track to become what the UN defines as a “super-aged” society this year. Much of East Asia is grappling with the challenge of encouraging women to have more children, but such efforts have largely failed. Birth rates have continued to fall in Japan, South Korea, and other countries, pushing governments to relax immigration rules. ↓ Flagging Aug. 26: Nvidia holds its second-quarter earnings call. The US Federal Reserve releases July Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation data. La Tomatina, the world’s largest tomato food fight, takes place in Buñol, Spain. ↓ Semafor Recommends Dolly Parton’s America. If, unlike US President Donald Trump, you don’t have the power to lower flags across your country to half-mast for a week, we suggest instead marking the passing of American national treasure Dolly Parton by listening to WNYC’s podcast series Dolly Parton’s America. Released in 2019, the nine-episode account of how the country music legend beat the odds to bring together Americans of every social, political, and cultural stratum is as relevant now as it was then — and is sure to make you, like it did this reporter, a fan for life. Listen to Dolly Parton’s America on Spotify. ↓ Semafor Spotlight View: With Chinese leader Xi Jinping due to meet with Trump next month, the US administration wants to avoid a full-on economic war with Beijing. That puts its Iran strategy at risk. → You’re receiving this email because you signed up for briefings from Semafor. Manage your preferences or unsubscribe here. Read our privacy policy. Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get Semafor in your inbox. Semafor, Inc. 228 Park Ave S, PMB 59081, New York, NY, 10003-1502, USA