RAND Policy Update

"National Security:  How could AI shape the future of war?"

Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analysis are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 14 May 2026, 2141 UTC.

Content and Source:  "RAND Policy Update:  National Security."

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

 

Policy Update National Security May 14, 2026 Photo by Rafael Brambila-Pelayo/U.S. Marine Corps How Could AI Shape the Future of War? A recent RAND report explores how AI could transform warfare by disrupting four “building block” competitions in military affairs: quantity versus quality hiding versus finding centralized versus decentralized command and control cyber offense versus cyber defense. The analysis suggests that the U.S. military should harness AI in ways that leverage mass, deception, mission command, and cyber resilience. For instance, investing in new AI tools can create persistent uncertainty and confusion for enemy sensing systems. Washington also needs a clear plan to transition to an AI-enabled force, one that trains human personnel and AI tools together to reinforce strengths and offset weaknesses. Exploiting AI’s potential will be as much an organizational challenge as a technological one, the authors conclude, because it may require “disruptive changes” to how the U.S. military traditionally operates. Read more   What China's Demographics Mean for Its Military China’s population is shrinking and aging fast—a shift that could reshape its military future. On the Policy Minded podcast, RAND’s Mark Cozad explores this challenge facing Beijing and what it could mean for global security. If China manages to overcome these demographic obstacles and achieve its modernization goals, it will gain confidence. And as Cozad says, “A People’s Liberation Army that is more confident and more willing to assert itself could become a much bigger problem for the United States.” Listen now How Close Is the World to Robotic Infantry? Ukraine’s recent use of ground robots to capture a Russian position marks a milestone for battlefield technology. Could robots one day replace infantry soldiers? Not anytime soon, says RAND Europe’s Jacob Parakilas. Although ground robots are rapidly changing battlefield tasks, they still face major obstacles. For instance, they struggle to navigate complex terrain, and they’re vulnerable to jamming. That’s why robots’ biggest impact will continue to be in supporting roles, Parakilas concludes. Read more

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