RAND Policy Updates.

"Charting new waters in the Arctic."

Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analysis are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 27 August 2025, 2131 UTC.

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

Policy Update

International Affairs

Aug 27, 2025

Photo by Vincent J. Street/U.S. Navy

Charting New Waters in the Arctic?

Models predict that the Central Arctic Ocean may soon become ice-free in summer, opening a seasonally navigable route. How might global actors leverage new maritime access in the Arctic for economic, political, and military gain? Read more

Research

Photo by Evgenia Novozhenina/Reuters

Understanding Russian Strategic Culture and the Low-Yield Nuclear Threat

A nuanced understanding of Russia's strategic culture provides context for interpreting its actions and intentions, especially concerning its nuclear posture and signaling. These insights have significant implications for NATO deterrence, escalation management, and international security. Read more Photo by Heo Ran/Reuters

Securing South Korea's Critical Minerals Supply Chains Through Trilateral Cooperation

South Korea, Japan, and the United States can learn from and leverage each other's differing approaches to supply chain security. Although barriers exist, the trio can strengthen South Korea's critical minerals supply chains through trilateral cooperation, trade agreements, joint stockpiling, and expanded economic security efforts. Read more Image by Corona Borealis/Adobe Stock

China, Smart Cities, and the Middle East

China is involved in dozens of smart city projects in the Middle East. What do these efforts mean for the United States, the strategic competition between Beijing and Washington, and U.S. relationships in the Middle East? Read more Photo by Ying Tang/NurPhoto via Reuters

Potential for U.S.-China Cooperation on Reducing AI Risks

For some national security problems related to the pursuit of artificial general intelligence, the United States and China will face strong incentives for competition, and possibly even for conflict. But the emergence of AGI could also create incentives for risk reduction and cooperation. Read more Photo by Elke Scholiers/ZUMA Press Wire via Reuters

Charting a Path to Middle East Stability and Prosperity

In the wake of U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities, Iran is no longer able to project disruptive power across the Middle East to the extent it once did. This presents an opportunity for the United States to reestablish itself as the partner of choice that helps people across the region meet their aspirations for normalcy, prosperity, and opportunity. Read more

Commentary and Articles

Photo by Sebastian Kahnert/Reuters

China's Black Sea Play

China is building an influence ecosystem in the Black Sea region—often through ties with Russia—deepening leverage and shaping regional alignments using infrastructure, trade, and political ties. Read more Photo by West Asia News Agency via Reuters

Raising Costs to Nuclear Proliferators

Israeli and U.S. military strikes in June have raised the cost to Iran of pursuing nuclear weapons. Proliferators must now weigh military risks along with political and financial costs. Read more Photo by the-lightwriter/Getty Images

When Alliances Matter: What the Israel-Iran War Reveals About Alliances Among Authoritarian States

While Israel benefited from Western support in the Israel-Iran war, Iran's lack of backing from allies like Russia and China exposed the limits of authoritarian partnerships. This situation highlights the importance of strong alliances and serves as a reminder to EU and NATO allies that unity among nations is crucial for security. Read more

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