RAND Policy Currents

"How AI could affect the rise and fall of nations."

Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analysis are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 09 July 2025, 2027 UTC.

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

 

The newsletter for policy people July 9, 2025   Image by Andres Mejia/Adobe Stock How AI Could Affect the Rise and Fall of Nations Artificial general intelligence (AGI) that can perform any intellectual task humans can perform may be the next transformative technology. If AGI emerges, then how might it affect geopolitics and the current world order? A new RAND report tackles this question, exploring eight scenarios that illustrate the potentially world-changing impacts of AGI. For example, a scenario called “Cold War 2” considers how decentralized AGI development could empower U.S. rivals, especially China. Another scenario, “The New ‘90s,” discusses how centralized AGI development might empower the United States, with other actors trailing behind. And in “The Corked Bottle,” the world halts AGI development by multiple actors in response to a large-scale AI malfunction. Considering these futures and others can help decisionmakers begin the urgent task of assessing the “vast constellation” of potential outcomes. “We cannot overstate how imperative it is for policymakers to begin preparing now,” the authors write. Read more   Autonomous Watercraft Could Improve Logistics in a Conflict In a hypothetical conflict with China over Taiwan, the United States would likely rely on large, mostly unarmed, civilian-crewed ships to deliver food, fuel, ammunition, and weapons. But these ships are easy to spot and vulnerable to attack. That's why RAND experts recommend considering small, low-cost autonomous surface vessels instead. Such an approach would break from traditional logistics, but “sustaining warfighting in a chain of Indo-Pacific islands against a potent adversary offers few traditional choices,” they say. Read more How Do Teachers Address Topics Related to Jewish Life and History? RAND recently interviewed dozens of middle and high school teachers to learn more about how they address Jewish history and culture in their classrooms, including such topics as the Holocaust, antisemitism, Judaism, Israel, Jewish American identity, and the Arab-Israeli conflict. Insights from the interviews can reveal ways to help teachers deepen their instruction on these complex subjects. Read more   Programming note: You're receiving this edition of Policy Currents on a Wednesday instead of our usual Tuesday. We appreciate your flexibility and will return to our regular Tuesday/Thursday schedule tomorrow. Thank you for reading.   RAND Recommends   Most clicked last week: how China is trying to become the global leader in AI by 2030. Hamas’s refusal to give up political power is the “primary sticking point” in a potential ceasefire with Israel, says RAND’s Raphael Cohen. According to a new RAND study, students are becoming increasingly bored in math classes. Lead author Heather Schwartz explains what might be done to shift their mindsets.   Events   Policy Lab: Restoring U.S. and Allied Military Power and Influence Thursday July 31, 2025 – Online

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