"Israel's strikes on Gaza, Canadian PM visits Europe, Rebels spurn DRC talks."

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

Daily News Brief

March 18, 2025

Welcome to CFR’s Daily News Brief. Today we’re covering Israel’s strikes on Gaza, as well as...

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s trip to Europe
A rebel group’s rejection of DRC peace talks
Mexico’s hunt for its disappeared

Top of the Agenda

Israel launched “extensive” air strikes across the Gaza Strip this morning, its first major attack on the territory since a cease-fire with Hamas began two months ago. More than four hundred people were killed and hundreds were injured, according to Gaza’s health ministry. Targets were struck in northern, central, and southern Gaza within hours. Israel’s prime minister said they had ordered the attacks after negotiations with Hamas had stalled—and that Israel would “act against Hamas with increasing military strength” going forward.

Cease-fire imperiled. The strikes raised the possibility of a full-fledged return to war in Gaza.

Israel’s military said that its operations are expected to expand beyond air attacks, telling Gaza residents living in border areas to evacuate. Hamas confirmed five of its senior officials were killed in the strikes, while hospitals reported that women and children were among those dead.
Hamas said Israel had broken the cease-fire agreement through an “unprovoked escalation” and exposed the hostages in Gaza “to an unknown fate.” In the hours following Israel’s strikes, there were no immediate reports of Hamas military retaliation. A Hamas spokesperson told Reuters today that communication with mediators was underway and that the group sought full implementation of the original cease-fire deal.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that Israel had consulted with the White House before the attacks. “As President [Donald] Trump has made clear, Hamas, the Houthis, all those who seek to terrorize not just Israel but also the United States of America, will see a price to pay,” she said on Fox News yesterday. “All hell will break loose.” National Security Council spokesperson Brian Hughes said that “Hamas could have released hostages to extend the cease-fire but instead chose refusal and war.”
Egypt and Qatar, which served as truce mediators, condemned the attacks. Saudi Arabia also denounced the strikes “in the strongest terms” and called for an immediate cease-fire and the protection of civilians.

How talks became strained. Israel and Hamas have clashed in recent weeks over the continuation of the cease-fire. The original agreement had envisioned three stages. The first phase included multiple hostage and prisoner exchanges, the return of Palestinians to homes in northern Gaza, and restored humanitarian aid; it expired March 1.

Israel, with the United States’ backing, then proposed extending the first phase for around six weeks in a deal that would see the immediate release of half of Hamas’s remaining hostages. But Hamas wanted to stick to the original framework for a second stage, which had included a permanent cease-fire deal and Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza. Last week, Hamas offered to release an Israeli American hostage and the bodies of four other hostages; Israel rejected that offer as “manipulation.” Both Israel and Hamas accused each other of violating cease-fire terms during the first stage.

“The most likely outcome of this terrible conflict is not renewed negotiations for a two-state solution, not some new governance formula for the Gaza Strip, but some really ugly version of the status quo that existed before October 7,” CFR expert Steven A. Cook told The President's Inbox podcast. “There is no formula. There is no governance structure that everybody can agree to here.”

Global Perspectives on Trump’s Address

President Trump has sent shockwaves around the world regarding U.S. foreign and economic policy. Experts reflect on what his second term could mean for U.S. global engagement in this Council of Councils memo.

Across the Globe

Canada’s Carney in Europe. Mark Carney yesterday made his first foreign trip as Canada’s leader to Paris and London—rather than to Washington, as is tradition. The visit came amid trade tensions with the United States and suggestions by Trump that Canada could become the fifty-first U.S. state. Ottawa is determined “to maintain the most positive possible relations with the United States,” Carney said, but also said that Trump’s talk of annexing Canada would “have to stop” before he would sit down for a meeting. Carney pushed back against a question about Washington potentially using force for annexation, saying that the countries are NATO allies.

Rebels pull out of DRC peace talks. M23 rebels will no longer participate in peace talks that were due to start today after the European Union (EU) announced sanctions on several group members yesterday, an M23 spokesperson said, also citing alleged military offensives by the Congolese government. The EU sanctioned some Rwandan security forces as well, saying they were fueling the conflict. Rwanda responded by severing ties with Belgium, which had backed the sanctions.

Trump warns Iran over Houthis. Following U.S. strikes on the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, Trump wrote on social media yesterday that any retaliation will be viewed “as being a shot fired from the weapons and leadership” of Iran. He added that Tehran would be “held responsible” with “dire” consequences. Iran’s UN ambassador called Trump’s statements “reckless and provocative” in a letter to the UN Security Council. A U.S. spy drone pulled back from a position near Iranian airspace after an encounter with Iranian fighter jets and reconnaissance drones, Iran’s Nournews reported yesterday.

Telegram CEO leaves France amid probe. Pavel Durov, the messaging app’s founder, was allowed to leave France on relaxed bail while charges against him continue to move forward in French court. French prosecutors accuse Telegram of refusing to cooperate with anti-crime investigators, which Durov denies. After his arrest, Telegram increased its cooperation with law enforcement. Born in Russia, Durov has French and Emirati citizenship and lives in Dubai.

Syria-Lebanon truce. The two countries agreed to a cease-fire last night after two days of deadly border clashes. Syria’s interim government accused Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah of abducting and killing three Syrian soldiers on Saturday. Amid subsequent fighting, seven Lebanese people were killed, Lebanon’s health ministry said. The truce agreement calls for “enhanced coordination and cooperation between the two sides,” Syria’s defense ministry said.

Mexico’s hunt for the disappeared. President Claudia Sheinbaum pledged policies to strengthen the search for missing people in Mexico after a mass grave was discovered last week. More than 120,000 people have been forcibly disappeared in the country since the start of official records in 1962. Many of the cases are thought to be linked to drug violence. Authorities have not provided an estimate of how many bodies were in the mass grave, but Sheinbaum said they would issue an update on the probe on Wednesday.

Trump mulls visit by Xi. Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit Washington in the “not-too-distant future,” Trump said yesterday. The White House and the Chinese Embassy in Washington did not comment on his statement. While the United States and China have traded new rounds of tariffs in recent weeks, the two countries have held back from the kind of intense engagement that Canadian and Mexican officials have favored.

OECD estimates on trade war. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) yesterday became the latest organization to estimate the financial cost of the current global trade escalation. It calculated that global growth will slow to 3 percent by 2026, 0.3 percent lower than its previous forecast just three months ago. Canada and Mexico were the two countries with the largest downgrade in growth projections since December, with Mexico’s economy projected to shrink in 2025. The OECD also projected that U.S. growth would fall to 1.6 percent in 2026—its lowest level since 2011, barring the COVID-19 pandemic.

Congress: Retake Control of Tariffs

The Trump administration’s recent tariff actions are undermining congressional authority and sowing chaos for U.S. businesses, former U.S. Treasury official James Wallar argues for RealEcon.

The Day Ahead

Trump is due to hold a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The UN Security Council holds a meeting on the situations in Sudan and South Sudan.

Singapore hosts the Defense Technology Summit.

Four astronauts from the International Space Station return to Earth.

Navigating the Gray Zone

The rising threat of hybrid or gray zone warfare includes various tactics that fall just short of open kinetic warfare. Experts discussed effective strategies to counter such attacks in this CFR meeting.