"USAID cuts finalized, US-Ukraine talks, Philippines' Duterte arrested."

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

Daily News Brief

March 11, 2025

Welcome to CFR’s Daily News Brief. Today we’re covering the reduction and reorganization of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), as well as...

U.S.-Ukraine talks in Saudi Arabia
A Kurdish-led rebel group’s merger with Syria’s government
Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s ICC arrest

Top of the Agenda

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said sweeping cuts to USAID are now complete, with 83 percent of its programs slated for cancellation. The Donald Trump administration aims to fold the remainder into the State Department “in consultation with Congress,” Rubio said in a post on X. The announcement concludes a chaotic review process of a decades-old, multibillion-dollar arm of U.S. soft power—while the repercussions of aid cuts ripple across the world. Policymakers who defended the change have argued that a slimmed-down foreign aid operation fits with Trump’s vision for U.S. national interests.

The latest. Information on which programs survived the cuts was not immediately made public, consistent with what aid groups have called a lack of transparency surrounding the weekslong review process.

The Trump administration informed overseas USAID staffers yesterday that they have until April 6 to return to the United States.
The number of canceled contracts that Rubio announced yesterday was lower than a figure the administration cited in a court filing last month. CNN requested a comment from the State Department about the discrepancy.
Though originally allotted ninety days for the foreign aid review, Rubio announced its conclusion after six weeks.

What people are saying. Many in the Trump administration celebrated the overhaul of USAID as part of broader efforts to reduce the size of the federal government, while critics warned of humanitarian and political consequences.

Rubio characterized the reform as “overdue and historic” and said the remaining programs would be “administered more effectively under the State Department.”
USAID workers and contractors have filed lawsuits in response to the cuts, saying they overstepped congressional authority.
A memo from an acting assistant administrator at USAID who was reportedly placed on administrative leave said that the delays and pause in foreign aid would “lead to increased death and disability, accelerate global disease spread, contribute to destabilizing fragile regions, and heightened security risks.”
A group including former U.S. diplomats and national security figures said that beyond the humanitarian consequences of cuts, they give China, Russia, and other adversaries space to expand their influence.

“The United States invests in development for concrete reasons beyond the competition for influence. Better infectious disease management systems abroad make it less likely that terrifying infectious diseases, like Ebola, will become a problem at home,” CFR expert Michelle Gavin writes for Africa in Transition.“Job-creating economic growth can staunch overwhelming migratory flows and stem violent extremism. Development can give countries emerging from conflicts that open the door to global bad actors—from Russian mercenaries to Iranian arms merchants—a reason to keep the peace.”

USAID’s History and Current Upheaval

For more than six decades, USAID has been a pillar of U.S. soft power and a source of foreign assistance for struggling countries. It has played a leading role in coordinating responses to international emergencies, CFR’s Diana Roy writes in this article.

Across the Globe

Ukraine talks restart. High-level delegations from the United States and Ukraine are holding talks in Saudi Arabia today regarding the Russia-Ukraine war. Ahead of the meeting, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio said he hoped the countries could “resolve” the pause in U.S. military aid to Ukraine. United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister Keir Starmer urged Trump to reverse the pause in a call yesterday. Ahead of the talks, Ukraine targeted the Moscow region with long-range drone attacks.

Duterte’s ICC arrest. Philippine authorities detained former President Rodrigo Duterte at a Manila airport, acting on a warrant from the International Criminal Court (ICC). Duterte withdrew the Philippines from the court in 2019 during his presidency, but the ICC continued to probe the portion of his anti-drug crackdown that came before the withdrawal. Duterte’s lawyer said the ICC has no jurisdiction over the Philippines, which the court disputes. Duterte’s successor, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., has cooperated with the ICC probe; Marcos was elected in 2022 in an alliance with Duterte’s daughter that has soured in recent months.

U.S. stock sell-off. Benchmark U.S. stock index the S&P 500 slid 2.7 percent yesterday—erasing its gains since Election Day—on the first day of trading since Trump in a weekend interview declined to rule out the possibility of a recession this year. In response to U.S. tariffs, the Canadian province of Ontario yesterday imposed a 25 percent levy on electricity exports to the United States. Trump is expected to impose new aluminum and steel tariffs on worldwide trading partners tomorrow.

Syria’s SDF reintegration deal. The U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) agreed to integrate with the new Syrian government by the end of this year. The SDF controls an area of northwestern Syria that includes oil and gas fields and had been a holdout as the interim government sought to bring the country’s multiple armed groups under its umbrella. The deal reiterated interim leaders’ pledges to build an inclusive government.

The OAS’s new leader. The Washington-based Organization of American States yesterday elected Surinamese Foreign Minister Albert Ramdin as its next secretary-general through 2030. He will be the first Caribbean head of the regional multilateral body. In a speech, he urged increased regional unity and action to address climate change.

Collision and oil spill in North Sea. A Portugal-flagged cargo ship hit an anchored, U.S.-flagged oil tanker yesterday, causing an explosion and spill. A rescue operation brought all but one of the cargo ship’s crew to shore, and all of the tanker’s crew were safe. The UK government and environmental groups were still assessing the incident and damage yesterday.

Indonesia, Vietnam bolster ties. The countries are upgrading bilateral relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto and Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam said in Jakarta yesterday. The two countries pledged to strengthen economic, political, and defense ties, including through joint military production and patrols. Vietnamese electric vehicle maker VinFast plans to establish a plant in Indonesia’s West Java, a senior Indonesian official said after the meeting.

South Sudan tensions. Uganda deployed military forces to South Sudan’s capital to “secure it,” Uganda’s military head said today. Tensions between South Sudanese President Salva Kiir Mayardit and First Vice President Dr. Riek Machar Teny have grown after the government detained senior Machar-aligned officials in recent days. A 2018 peace agreement ended a five-year civil war between groups aligned with Kiir and Machar; South Sudanese officials did not immediately answer calls seeking comment.

Trade Wars and Inflation

The Trump administration has lauded tariffs as policy panacea, but rising uncertainty around global trade will make it all the more difficult to bring inflation under control, the Arbroath Group’s Dr. Christopher W. Smart writes for RealEcon.

The Day Ahead

Greenland holds a parliamentary election.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte visits Kosovo.

Vietnam begins hosting a conference on artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductors.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Mauritius.

Who Holds the Cards in Ukraine?

With strained U.S.-Ukraine relations, Kyiv faces a tough hand at the negotiating table. It is struggling to secure military and economic support as Washington, Brussels, and Moscow pursue their own strategic interests, CFR President Michael Froman writes in this article.