"Violence shakes Syria, Chinese tariffs kick in, Canada's new PM."

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

Daily News Brief

March 10, 2025

Welcome to CFR’s Daily News Brief. Today we’re covering an outbreak of violence in Syria, as well as...

China’s new tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s trip to Saudi Arabia
Mark Carney’s ascension to Canadian prime minister

Top of the Agenda

Hundreds of people, many of them civilians, were killed in recent clashes in western Syria. The deaths since last Thursday amount to Syria’s largest spate of violence since rebels ousted former President Bashar al-Assad in December, prompting international repudiation and calls for investigations.

The context. The violence underscores Syria’s sectarian strains and lingering conflicts between Assad loyalists and the new administration.

The clashes occurred in a stronghold of Syria’s Alawite minority. Assad is Alawite, and many of his supporters still live in the area. Armed men loyal to Assad ambushed government security forces on Thursday, kicking off a chain of violence.
As government forces fought back, civilians were broadly targeted, residents and monitoring groups said. Unnamed Damascus authorities blamed armed militias who came to fight alongside government troops for summary executions of young people and raids of homes.
Casualty estimates vary. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a United Kingdom (UK)-based war monitor, counted more than one thousand people dead—over seven hundred of whom were civilians—while the Syrian Network for Human Rights reported more than six hundred people killed.

Local and global responses. Syria’s interim administration has pledged to investigate the events, while many international partners have called for accountability.

Interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa accused Assad loyalists and unnamed foreign powers of trying to foment unrest, saying that his administration would hold accountable “anyone who is involved in the bloodshed of civilians” or exploits state power. His office said it was forming an independent committee to investigate the clashes and killings.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington “condemns the radical Islamist terrorists, including foreign jihadis, that murdered people in Western Syria” and called for accountability.
The foreign secretary of the UK, which extended sanctions relief to Syria just days ago, said authorities in Damascus “must ensure the protection of all Syrians and set out a clear path to transitional justice.”
The commander of the U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) blamed the killings on Turkey-backed factions and Islamic extremists. The SDF called for Sharaa to reconsider his method for forming the new Syrian army, saying that some fighters could use the army “to create sectarian conflicts and settle internal scores.” Turkey’s defense ministry did not immediately comment.

“In Syria, the odds are stacked against a smooth political transition. The country’s practical challenges are daunting, not to mention the lack of trust among key stakeholders jockeying for advantages and dominance,” the London School of Economics’ Fawaz A. Gerges writes for Foreign Affairs.

Could Myanmar’s Junta Collapse?

After Assad’s regime suddenly fell, some wondered if Myanmar’s junta could be next. But rebel groups in Myanmar are not as well coordinated and neighboring countries want to keep the junta in power, CFR expert Joshua Kurlantzick writes for Asia Unbound.

Across the Globe

China’s tariff reactions. Beginning today, Beijing is applying a new 10 percent tariff on U.S. goods including soybeans, pork, and beef, and a 15 percent tariff on goods including chicken, corn, and cotton. The move is a reaction to U.S. President Donald Trump’s second round of 10 percent levies on Chinese goods since taking office. Separately, China announced Saturday that on March 20, it will hit Canadian rapeseed oil and pea imports with a 100 percent tariff, and pork and some seafood imports with a 25 percent tariff. China’s moves are in response to Canada’s August 2024 duties on Chinese aluminum, electric cars, and steel; Canada called the new levies “unjustified.”

Zelenskyy in Saudi Arabia. The Ukrainian president is holding talks with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman today in Riyadh about the Russia-Ukraine war. Riyadh hosted talks between Washington and Moscow last month and is due to host talks between Washington and Kyiv tomorrow. Zelenskyy and Trump will not attend those; both countries’ top diplomats will participate instead. Zelenskyy said Saturday that Ukraine is “fully committed to constructive dialogue” with the United States.

Carney to lead Canada. Former Canadian central banker Mark Carney won the Liberal Party’s leadership election yesterday with more than 85 percent of votes. He will soon be sworn in as prime minister, following the previously announced resignation of Justin Trudeau. Carney discussed trade tensions with the United States in a speech last night, saying Canada was living through “dark days brought on by a country we can no longer trust.” He pledged to “keep our tariffs on until the Americans show us respect—and make credible, reliable commitments to free and fair trade.”

Praise for Arab plan on Gaza. France, Germany, Italy, and the UK jointly endorsed a five-year plan for Gaza’s postwar reconstruction proposed by Arab countries, calling it “realistic” and hailing its pledges of a “swift and sustainable improvement” of the territory’s living conditions. Israel and the United States rejected it last week. Separately, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said Israel is sending a delegation to Qatar today to discuss a potential extension of the Gaza cease-fire. Israel’s energy minister said Saturday that the country was cutting its remaining electricity supplies to Gaza, adding that Israel aimed to “ensure the return of all the hostages.”

Romania bans far-right candidate. Romanian election authorities banned Cǎlin Georgescu from running in a May redo of the country’s presidential vote. They said Georgescu’s regulatory violation in the first round of the election last November still disqualifies him. Georgescu won the most votes in November’s contest, which was annulled after allegations of Russian meddling. He said today that he would appeal the ban.

Myanmar announces vote. The country will hold an election in December 2025 or January 2026, its junta leader said. It will be the first vote since the military government seized power in a 2021 coup. Critics such as Human Rights Watch have questioned whether the vote would be considered “credible” given the government’s detentions and dissolution of opposition parties.

Iran’s overture on talks. Tehran would consider talks with Washington about “concerns vis-à-vis any potential militarization of Iran’s nuclear program,” the country’s mission to the United Nations posted on X. It added that Iran would continue its “peaceful” nuclear activities. Trump sent a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in recent days seeking nuclear talks; Khamenei said he would reject talks aimed at restricting the country’s missile program and regional influence.

Venezuela’s stance on U.S. deportees. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro said Saturday that the country’s willingness to accept deportees from the United States was “affected” by a “tremendous commotion” after Washington canceled Chevron’s license to operate in the country. Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa criticized Maduro’s stance on Sunday as “abandon[ing]” his people, adding that Ecuador would accept its own nationals but not those from other countries.

Russia’s Demands in Ukraine

Some recent White House moves have appeared to signal a belief that Moscow is ready for constructive talks on ending the war in Ukraine. But chances of Russian concessions are slim, CFR’s Thomas Graham writes in this Expert Brief.

The Day Ahead

The European Union and India begin a week of trade talks in Brussels.

The U.S.-based Organization of American States elects a new secretary-general.

The UN Security Council discusses the situation in Afghanistan.

U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright speaks at the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston.

Iran’s Nuclear and Missile Capabilities

Iran does not have a nuclear weapon, but it has a long history of engaging in secret nuclear weapons research in violation of its international commitments, Jonathan Masters and CFR’s Will Merrow write in this article.