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"Trump's early stumbles, Gaza, transgender athletes."

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

February 6, 2025

	By David Leonhardt

Good morning. Today, we’re covering President Trump’s early stumbles — as well as Gaza, transgender athletes and vintage furniture.

President Trump Doug Mills/The New York Times

Trump vs. Trump

The biggest impediment to a successful second term for President Trump may be Trump himself.

For all the early energy of his presidency — the flurry of executive orders, confirmations and firings — Trump has looked less disciplined this week than he did in the initial days after returning to office. The last few days have instead conjured the chaos of his first term, when his grand pronouncements often failed to change government policy.

The first part of this week was dominated by Trump’s threatened tariffs on Canada and Mexico, but he postponed them in exchange for the countries’ promise to do things they were largely already doing. On Tuesday, Trump announced a plan for the U.S. to take over Gaza that even American allies like Saudi Arabia dismissed as unworkable. The reaction was so bad that White House aides walked back parts of the plan yesterday.

Neither of these policy announcements seems likely to lead to tangible accomplishments. And both have the potential to make him look weak.

It’s true that over-the-top pronouncements can have ancillary benefits for Trump. Steve Bannon, his former adviser, talks frequently about the value of “flooding the zone” so that Trump’s political opponents can’t focus energy on stopping any one of his changes. Trump’s promise of turning Gaza into “the Riviera of the Middle East” could keep Democrats from mobilizing opposition to, say, Elon Musk’s campaign against foreign aid.

But there are also costs for Trump. He and his allies have ambitious goals for remaking federal policy. They want to cut taxes, shrink the government, expand manufacturing, deport undocumented immigrants, restrict immigration, end “wokeism,” contain China, weaken Iran, strengthen Israel and Saudi Arabia and pull back from Europe. High-profile policies that fall flat don’t get Trump's team closer to these goals.

A finite asset

The attention and resources of the Trump administration are limited, too. Each long-shot policy that the administration pursues has an opportunity cost. Trump’s first term included relatively few policy accomplishments (his tax cut being a notable exception) because he spent so much time on ideas that went nowhere. Remember “infrastructure week,” which never led to an actual law? Or the nonexistent peace deal with North Korea? Or the Covid treatment ideas with no medical benefits?

The recent tariff reversal is a useful case study of opportunity cost. Trump’s quick reversal means that other countries now have less reason to make substantial concessions to him to avoid a future tariff; performative promises may be enough. A more successful tariff showdown this week would also have helped flood the zone, without making Trump look ineffectual. Imagine, for example, if he had instead threatened tariffs on European countries — and they responded with big increases in military spending, as he wants.

I’m not trying to suggest that Trump’s new term has been free of meaningful change. He has done a lot in the past two and a half weeks. His immigration crackdown is real and continues to be broadly popular. His changes to gender and diversity policy are substantial. He has fired federal employees who won’t do what he wants. And even though he has brazenly defied the law to grab power, Senate Republicans have responded meekly.

Trump is still a strong president enjoying the heady weeks after inauguration. Yet the most ambitious version of his second term will require more than early strength. It will require a discipline that was lacking eight years ago — and that his aides promised would be present from the start this time. It will require using his singular ability to dominate attention in a way that leads to the changes he wants.

That hasn’t happened over the past few days. If you’re a Trump supporter, it should be worrisome. If you’re a Trump opponent, it should offer a small measure of relief.

For more

Trump’s sudden announcement on Gaza surprised senior members of his administration. There were no meetings about it. Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s leader, are close. Their news conference put that on display. Some Arab and Muslim leaders who voted for Trump doubt he’ll follow through on his proposal to remove Palestinians from Gaza. “It’s all just talk,” one said. “Outrageous, criminal, harebrained”: Palestinians in the U.S. reacted to Trump’s plan with shock.

THE LATEST NEWS

Politics

In the East Room of the White House. Eric Lee/The New York Times

Trump signed an executive order to bar transgender women competing in women’s sports. K-12 schools and colleges that violate it would risk losing federal money. The Justice Department accused the acting F.B.I. director of “insubordination” for refusing to identify agents who investigated the Jan. 6 attack. The C.I.A. is offering employees an option to quit but be paid through September. A similar offer to other federal workers last week excluded national security-related agencies. Trump revoked the security detail for Mark Esper, a former defense secretary who wrote a critical book about his time in the first Trump administration. Thousands protested across the U.S. against Trump, part of a grass-roots effort to kick off a national movement. Track what Trump has done since he took office.

Media

Lara Trump, the president’s daughter-in-law, will begin hosting a weekend show on Fox News this month. The F.C.C. released the transcript of a “60 Minutes” interview with Kamala Harris. Trump has sued the show, claiming it deceptively edited her responses.

International

In Goma, Democratic Republic of Congo. Guerchom Ndebo for The New York Times

Fighting between Rwandan-backed forces and Congolese soldiers left nearly 3,000 dead in a matter of days. “We have days of mass burials ahead of us,” a Red Cross official said. Ukrainians are appealing to conservative American Christians to try to keep military aid flowing. A large Ukrainian delegation is attending the National Prayer Breakfast in Washington.

Other Big Stories

Near Los Angeles, during the wildfires. Mario Tama/Getty Images

Last month was the warmest January on record. We recreated what the helicopter pilots could see before the Washington crash. The U.S. trade deficit in goods topped $1 trillion last year. Google abandoned its diversity goals, citing Trump’s executive orders. Another atmospheric river is set to hit Northern California. Meteorologists explained why these heavy storms are still so hard to predict.

Opinions

Rebecca Chew/The New York Times

Timothy White came out as gay to his father, an evangelical pastor. He shares his father’s journal entries from the time.

Free trade is a myth that other countries have exploited at America’s expense, Robert Lighthizer, Trump’s former trade representative, writes.

Greenland is not for sale, and it never will be, Aqqaluk Lynge and Gitte Seeberg write.

The world’s richest man is hurting the world’s poorest children, Nicholas Kristof writes.

Here is Charles Blow’s final column.

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MORNING READS

At Fives, in the French Quarter. Bryan Tarnowski for The New York Times

New Orleans: The city loves its oysters.

Most clicked yesterday: Gen X women are having the best sex.

Raw account: Joan Didion kept a diary 25 years ago. It’s about to become public.

“Guntube”: Firearms influencers on YouTube are changing American gun culture.

Blurb fatigue: Collecting endorsement quotes for book covers is a time-consuming and dispiriting process.

Vocal coach: Meet the man who helps Angelina Jolie and Timothée Chalamet sing onscreen.

Gut health: This is what alcohol may be doing to you.

Lives Lived: Gene Barge, known as Daddy G, was one of the last surviving saxophonists of the golden age of R&B. His career ran the gamut of 20th-century Black popular music. He died at 98.

SPORTS

N.B.A.: The Heat traded Jimmy Butler to the Warriors for Andrew Wiggins and a first-round pick.

Toronto Raptors: The Canadian team acquired the Pelicans star Brandon Ingram for multiple players and picks.

N.F.L.: The Browns defensive end Myles Garrett said he spoke to LeBron James before requesting a trade out of Cleveland.

ARTS AND IDEAS

A reupholstered chair. Lesley Unruh

People are reimagining vintage furniture. Restoring or reupholstering a chair or chest of drawers makes it look almost new again. Other times, with a few changes, an interior designer said, “It looks like a completely different piece of furniture.” Read how designers do it.

More on culture

Clara B. Martin

Some people are using sketchbooks instead of an iPhone to document their vacations. ASAP Rocky, on trial for assault, has worn high-fashion looks in court. Karla Sofía Gascón, the Oscar-nominated actress in Emilia Pérez, is at the center of a scandal over her old social media posts. The Points Guy has some travel tips for you (including charging your rent to accrue points).

THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …

Kelly Marshall for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Samantha Seneviratne.

Top these creamy, spicy tomato beans with lemony greens.

Save money with an at-home haircut kit.

Ditch the stain remover — and opt for this hack instead.

GAMES

Here is today’s Spelling Bee. Yesterday’s pangram was janitor.

And here are today’s Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands.

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow.

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Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

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