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"U.S.-Russia move toward improved relations."

Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analysis are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 19 February 2025, 0304 UTC.

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

 

Mumbai  Kuala Lumpur  St. Petersburg February 19, 2025 Read on the web Flagship Asia Morning Edition Sign up for our free newsletters→

The World Today US-Russia bonhomie Trump’s tariff architect Trump, Xi threaten commerce Tesla, Apple eye India Huawei’s trifold phone Japan backs nuclear power SpaceX team inside FAA Russia’s record budget deficit Gene making mice squeak India’s wigmaking push A new Chinese noir showing at Berlinale follows a movie stuntwoman in a “high-wire adventure.”

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1 US-Russia meeting previews truce talks Russian Foreign Ministry/Handout via Reuters Talks between US and Russian officials lasted more than four hours Tuesday and signaled the countries’ willingness to work together on ending the Ukraine war and normalizing ties. The meeting in Riyadh previewed a “head-spinning reset” after years of adversarial relations, The New York Times reported; both sides cautiously touted the negotiations, though an imminent meeting between the countries’ leaders is unlikely. Officials suggested peace talks could include the lifting of Western sanctions on Moscow, while Russia’s foreign minister opposed the idea of NATO troops in Ukraine after a truce. Both issues could exacerbate tensions with Kyiv and Europe, which are already uneasy about being excluded from the Riyadh talks.

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2 The Trump loyalist pushing tariffs Kevin Lamarque/Reuters Some Republicans are looking to stem the influence of Donald Trump’s trade adviser who has orchestrated the president’s sweeping tariff plan. Harvard-trained economist Peter Navarro — who was imprisoned for not complying with a subpoena over the Jan. 6 riot — has led Trump’s early tariff actions that have rattled global economies. GOP senators are pushing to confirm trade appointees who could temper Navarro’s “maximalist approach to tariffs,” like imposing duties on all Chinese imports, The Wall Street Journal reported. Navarro is motivated by a longstanding “protectionist streak and hostility to China,” the Financial Times wrote. Still, mainstream politicians who once challenged Navarro now “agree China is a worrisome rival,” The New York Times wrote, even if they disagree with his proposed solutions.

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3 Trump, Xi could upend global economy Trump and Xi in 2019. Kevin Lamarque/File Photo/Reuters US President Donald Trump’s unpredictable tariff war and Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s strategy of manufacturing overproduction threaten global commerce, analysts argued. More than 23% of Chinese manufacturers made a loss in the last quarter of 2024, and economists warned Trump’s blanket 10% tariffs on Chinese exports can push them to the brink, Nikkei Asia reported, worsening the country’s overcapacity dilemma. But China’s global manufacturing dominance — its exports over the past six years grew more than 10 times as fast as its imports — are hurting Beijing’s trade partners and competitors, economist Brad Setser argued. Between Xi’s “one-way vision of trade” and Trump’s willingness to weaponize tariffs, “the global economy is in for a rough ride.”

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4 Tesla looks to launch in India Tesla and Apple are capitalizing on India’s growing potential as a high-tech manufacturing destination and market. In signs that Tesla is planning to launch in India, the EV giant has begun hiring there and picked showroom locations in New Delhi and Mumbai. The moves come after Tesla CEO Elon Musk met with India’s prime minister in Washington last week; the government slashed import duties for EVs in 2024 to appeal to players like Tesla. Apple, meanwhile, is expanding assembly plants in India as it looks to diversify from China, the Financial Times reported. Indian states have been courting Apple for years — calling it “the fruit company” to ensure secrecy — but its presence there is not yet large enough to rival China.

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5 Huawei expands trifold phone sales Hasnoor Hussain/Reuters Huawei’s smartphone that folds three ways debuted overseas in Malaysia, as the Chinese tech giant eyes a comeback on the world stage. The release of the trifold phone — the industry’s first — at a Kuala Lumpur event marks one of Huawei’s first foreign showcases after a US crackdown dented its global business. More than 90% of the company’s smartphones are sold domestically, and the international push is more of an effort to “maintain its global brand awareness” rather than boost sales, Nikkei Asia reported. The move also highlights Southeast Asia’s status as a tech battleground, especially for smartphones. Indonesia has banned some iPhone sales due to Apple’s lack of local production, but the company is now reportedly eyeing ways to make phones there.

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6 Japan ups nuclear, renewables target Japan’s government backed a plan to hike renewable and nuclear power generation over the next 15 years. Tokyo has been cautious about increased nuclear dependence after the 2011 Fukushima power plant disaster, but higher electricity demand from semiconductor production and artificial intelligence data centers has forced officials to shift their posture, The Japan Times wrote. A new plan aims for nuclear power to account for 20% of the country’s energy supply by 2040, with 50% coming from renewables. To that end, Japan is putting $1.5 billion to develop ultra-thin and bendy solar panels, a clean-tech innovation that analysts say could disrupt China’s dominance on renewables.

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7 SpaceX team to work on FAA overhaul Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters The Trump administration is turning to Elon Musk’s rocket company SpaceX to help overhaul the US’ air traffic control systems, which are under scrutiny after a spate of plane crashes. The SpaceX team’s review of the Federal Aviation Administration comes as the agency fired hundreds of probationary employees. Union officials said they helped maintain critical infrastructure and that the terminations will burden “a workforce that is already stretched thin.” Musk has previously criticized the FAA over its regulation of SpaceX. The move is the latest extension of the billionaire’s reach into public sector functions; it’s unclear whether his engineers have air traffic control expertise, but the US transportation secretary said they could help modernize an outdated system.

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Plug Face-Off: U.S. vs. China is a podcast that takes an inside look at the turbulent relationship between the world’s two superpowers, the two men who run them, and the vital issues that affect us all. This season, host Jane Perlez focuses on Donald Trump’s America vs. Xi Jinping’s China. Listen here or wherever you get your podcasts.

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8 Russia sees record budget deficit Maxim Shemetov/Reuters Russia’s budget deficit is at record levels, raising already high inflation rates. Government revenues in January were slightly up from 2024, but expenditure shot up 73.6%, likely driven by military spending, along with infrastructure and agriculture. Since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has repeatedly increased its outlays. The central bank is attempting to keep sky-high inflation down, keeping interest rates unchanged at 21%, but unexpectedly raised its inflation forecast significantly. The high cost of borrowing also means banks are lending less, The Bell reported, raising concerns that the country will face “a dangerous combination of low growth and high inflation.”

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9 Human gene made mice squeak more Alex Kard/Wikimedia Commons A study analyzing mice squeaks sheds new light on a gene that may be key to human language development. All mammals express a version of the gene called NOVA1, but mice engineered with the human version made more intricate vocalizations than their peers — particularly when males courted females. The findings indicate the gene variant shapes how the brain processes sounds and is integral to language, The New York Times wrote. It is not the only language gene, however: FOXP2, also present across species, has also been identified as critical for language. Yet the human NOVA1 variant arose after ancient Homo sapiens split from Neanderthals and Denisovans, suggesting our common ancestor could talk, but humans gained an evolutionary advantage.

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10 India’s push to export wigs Jeenah Moon/Reuters India, the world’s biggest exporter of human hair, wants to move into wigmaking. Hair pickers in India earn between 10 cents and $1 per 2.2 pounds of hair, often from Hindu temples where hair is shaved as an act of devotion. It is then sold to local traders and ends up in the China-dominated wig trade: The Chinese wigmaking industry is worth about $5 billion, an analyst told the BBC. As so often, raw materials — whether crude oil or human hair — are less valuable than refined products, and Indian wigmakers want the government to invest in sophisticated hair-treatment and sorting systems. One advocate said the goal is for India to sell wigs worth thousands of dollars instead of exporting hair for hundreds.

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Flagging Feb. 19: The annual Conservative Political Action Conference begins in Washington. BAE Systems, HSBC, and Etsy report earnings. American actor Jeff Daniels celebrates his 70th birthday.

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Curio L’Avventura Films A Chinese filmmaker, heralded for driving the country’s neo-noir trend in cinema, has brought her latest drama to the Berlinale film festival. Vivian Qu’s Girls on Wire is set in 1980s China and follows the lives of two cousins — a movie stuntwoman and a single mom fleeing from gangsters. The story traces “the complex legacy of China’s economic miracle,” while highlighting young, working class women’s struggles, The Hollywood Reporter wrote. The “high-wire adventure” is also a satire of China’s “hopeless addiction to gangster capitalism,” The Guardian’s reviewer wrote, calling the movie “a flawed, but involving spectacle.”

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Semafor Spotlight Michael Brochstein/Reuters Lori Chavez-DeRemer is going to need help from Rand Paul, Democrats, or both if she wants to become Donald Trump’s labor secretary, reports Semafor’s Burgess Everett. Paul has called for Chavez-DeRemer to publicly renounce her past support for the pro-Union PRO Act, while Democrats, in response to Trump’s aggressive first weeks, are increasingly holding a harder line against any and all parts of his agenda: “I’m not supporting nominees as long as the lawlessness continues,” Sen. Andy Kim, D-N.J., told Semafor. For more on the inner workings of Congress, subscribe to Semafor Principals. →

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