"Zelenskyy in Washington, Trump floats new tariffs on China, Mexico sends drug capos to U.S."

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

Daily News Brief

February 28, 2025

Welcome to CFR’s Daily News Brief. Today we’re covering Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s talks with U.S. President Donald Trump, as well as...

Trump’s threat of additional China tariffs
Mexico’s transfer of cartel bosses to the United States
A Kurdish separatist leader’s call to disarm

Top of the Agenda

Trump and Zelenskyy are due to meet today for the first time since the U.S. and Russia started high-level talks about ending the war in Ukraine. Trump’s eagerness to settle the war and insistence that European countries take a bigger role in their defense has left Kyiv and other European capitals scrambling to redefine their own positions. The leaders of France and the United Kingdom (UK) preceded Zelenskyy in Washington this week. They urged Trump not to walk away from Ukraine’s defense but rather provide the country with long-term security guarantees. Trump and Zelenskyy are considering a mineral rights deal as a tactic to ensure joint investment in Ukraine’s future.

The latest. Trump praised the European leaders who visited him this week but avoided making public commitments about how much military support the United States might provide Ukraine if the war ends.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has said he is open to sending troops to Ukraine to serve as postwar peacekeepers and called for the United States to act as a “backstop.” Trump told Starmer yesterday that “we are a backstop because we’ll be over there, we’ll be working.”
Trump also said yesterday that he supports NATO’s Article 5, known as the mutual defense clause. When asked if the United States would come to the aid of British peacekeepers if they were attacked in Ukraine, Trump said the British “can take care of themselves. But if they need help, I’ll always be with the British.”

Today’s bilateral. Much of Trump and Zelenskyy’s conversation is expected to focus on the terms of a deal in which the United States would play a role in developing some of Ukraine’s mineral resources.

Recent drafts of the agreement mention minerals as well as oil and gas assets that have not yet been monetized. Ukraine’s government says it has deposits of twenty-two of the fifty minerals listed as critical by the United States. Little has been done to develop Ukraine’s minerals sector, and some of the assets lie in or near Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine.
Zelenksyy is seeking explicit U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine as part of the deal, writing yesterday on social media that “strength is needed on the path to peace.”

“Trump will lean hard on the Ukrainians to accede to some of [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s terms. Yet he needs to secure concessions from the Russian side, too. That’s because accepting Moscow’s maximalist war aims would deal a crippling blow to his reputation as a shrewd statesman,” CFR President Michael Froman writes.“Acquiescence would also undermine Trump’s grand strategy to reduce the U.S. military presence in Europe. An emboldened Putin would be sure to stir trouble along NATO’s eastern flank and make it more difficult for Trump to execute on his ‘America First’ foreign policy by withdrawing U.S. troops from Europe.”

The Scope of U.S. Deployments in Europe

Recent U.S.-Russia talks have spurred a debate over whether U.S. military forces will be reduced in Europe. This rundown by CFR’s Molly Carlough, Benjamin Harris, and Abigail McGowan traces the U.S. military footprint across the continent.

Across the Globe

Threats of new duties on China. Trump said yesterday that he would impose an additional 10 percent tariff on all Chinese imports beginning Tuesday, citing the country’s role in the global fentanyl trade. A duty of that same amount already took effect on Chinese goods earlier this month, which prompted limited Chinese retaliation. The Chinese Embassy in Washington said there were “no winners” in a U.S.-China trade war. Trump’s threat came the same day that Microsoft warned current U.S. export controls on AI chips would lead more countries to turn to China for the technology they need.

Mexico’s mega-prisoner transfer. The Mexican government yesterday sent twenty-nine prisoners to the United States to face charges related to drug trafficking and other violations. Several are senior crime bosses, including a man behind the 1985 killing of a U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration agent. Mexico’s foreign minister was in Washington yesterday trying to head off 25 percent tariffs, which Trump said would go forward for both Canada and Mexico on Tuesday. Trump linked the tariffs to drug trafficking concerns; Canada yesterday launched a new push to intercept drugs entering and leaving the country.

Kurdish leader’s call to disarm. Jailed militant leader Abdullah Öcalan of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) called on his followers yesterday to lay down their weapons. Doing so could mean an end to a more than four-decade-long conflict with Turkey that has killed an estimated forty thousand people. Talks with Turkish politicians preceded Öcalan’s announcement, but it was not clear what Kurdish fighters would get in exchange for disarmament. The commander of the Kurdish-led, U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces celebrated Öcalan’s declaration but said “it has no connection to our forces.”

USAID cuts hit projects worldwide. Health and humanitarian projects around the world received notices yesterday that their U.S. funding was being terminated as part of a Trump administration review of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). More than 90 percent of the agency’s global contracts are being cut. That includes some projects that were initially covered by a waiver for life-saving humanitarian aid, such as work addressing HIV/AIDS. The notices said that top administration officials determined the programs were “not in the national interest,” Reuters reported.

India, EU eye trade deal. In New Delhi, India and the European Union (EU) directed their negotiators to finalize a free trade agreement by the end of this year. It would be “the largest deal of this kind anywhere in the world,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the India-EU strategic partnership is “natural” and has “trust and shared belief in democratic values” at its core.

Thailand deports Uyghurs to China. The UN refugee agency called yesterday’s deportation of forty Uyghur asylum seekers—an action China had requested—a “clear violation” of international law. The men had fled China in 2014 in hopes of reaching Turkey. International outcry over China’s treatment of Uyghurs initially prompted the Thai government to say it would not send them back; human rights groups have warned they could face imprisonment or torture in China. The Thai foreign ministry did not comment on the matter, while a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said that forty Chinese nationals had been legally repatriated.

Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan territory swap. The countries will exchange territory as part of a deal to end a border dispute dating back to the fall of the Soviet Union, the head of Kyrgyzstan’s secret service said. The dispute led to sporadic military clashes over the years. Its resolution comes amid a general improvement in relations between five former Soviet Central Asian countries which also include Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

Global biodiversity funding deal. Envoys at UN biodiversity negotiations in Rome signed off on a roadmap for directing $200 billion per year to reverse nature loss by 2030. They agreed to work toward increasing funding from both public and private sources. But the participating countries pushed into the future a decision about whether to keep channeling money through an existing global fund that some poorer countries criticized as overly bureaucratic.

Trade Calendar

Trade and tariffs are a central part of President Donald Trump’s international economic policy. Stay up-to-date with CFR’s calendar of significant trade-related actions—and reactions—this year, as well as measures that are announced but not yet implemented.

The Weekend Ahead

Syria’s interim government is expected to take office.

The first phase of the Gaza cease-fire is slated to end unless an extension is reached.

Yamandú Orsi takes office as president of Uruguay.

Tajikistan holds a general election.

The 97th Academy Awards ceremony takes place in Los Angeles.

Women Around The World

One of the last remaining programs aimed at ensuring that Afghan women have some access to higher education has been halted as a result of the Trump administration’s freeze on foreign aid funding. In this week’s edition of Women Around the World, Diya Mehta and CFR’s Noël James also look at news from Guatemala and the African Union.