"Three years of war in Ukraine. German conservative victory."

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

Daily News Brief

February 24, 2025

Welcome to CFR’s Daily News Brief. Today we’re covering the diplomatic scramble over Ukraine’s future on the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion, as well as...

Germany’s new political map after national elections
Firings among senior Pentagon ranks and at USAID
The EU’s relaxation of sanctions on Syria

Top of the Agenda

Today marks three years since Russia invaded Ukraine. Hundreds of thousands of people are estimated to have been killed, Russian forces occupy just under 20 percent of the country, and hundreds of billions of dollars in aid for Kyiv have been provided by the United States and other backers—who were united until now. The Donald Trump administration has upended U.S. policy on the war by engaging Russia in direct bilateral talks that so far exclude Ukraine and its European allies. A dozen leaders from Canada and Europe are in Kyiv today to reaffirm their support. Meanwhile, Washington is preparing for its next round of bilateral talks with Moscow, while applying pressure at the United Nations and Group of Seven against language in joint statements that identify Russian aggression as the cause of the war.

The latest in Ukraine. Over the weekend, Russia launched what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the largest drone attack on Ukraine since the start of the war. Russia launched 267 attack drones, Zelenskyy said; Ukraine’s air force detected three Russian ballistic missiles. After relations between Zelenskyy and Trump soured in sharp exchanges last week, the Ukrainian president said yesterday he would be willing to step down if it brought lasting peace, suggesting Ukraine could receive NATO membership in exchange.

Talks between Kyiv and Washington have centered on a draft deal over Ukraine’s rare earth minerals that the Trump administration has framed as a way for Ukraine to pay back wartime aid. A top Ukrainian official said today that negotiations are in “final stages.” Zelenskyy had objected to a previous proposal for a $500 billion fund fed by Ukraine’s mineral wealth, saying it was higher than the United States’ contribution to Ukraine thus far and that he would “not sign what ten generations of Ukrainians will have to pay back.” He also said he pushed back on a U.S. proposal that Ukraine pay two dollars for every dollar of U.S. military aid.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wrote in a Financial Times op-ed that Washington was not proposing “taking ownership of physical assets in Ukraine” or “saddling Ukraine with more debt” and that the proposed deal would invest the United States “alongside the people of Ukraine.”

What’s next for Europe. Cut out of peace deal talks and told by the Trump administration to expect less defense help from the United States, European countries are steeling themselves for changes in their regional defense architecture.

European Union (EU) leaders are scheduled to meet for an extraordinary summit on Ukraine and EU defense on March 6.

The victor of yesterday’s German elections, conservative Friedrich Merz, said last night that his “absolute priority” would be to strengthen Europe in order to gradually “achieve independence” from the United States. While NATO is due to meet in June, Merz wondered aloud yesterday “whether we will still be talking about NATO in its current form or whether we will have to establish an independent European defense capability much more quickly.”

French President Emmanuel Macron is meeting with Trump in Washington today after holding two European crisis meetings last week. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will follow him on Thursday. Macron and Starmer agreed to demonstrate “united leadership in support of Ukraine,” Starmer’s office said.

“[Trump] will still need to secure concessions from the Russian side, because accepting Moscow’s maximalist war aims would deal a crippling blow to his reputation as a shrewd statesman,” CFR President Michael Froman writes. “To secure peace through strength, it would be in Trump’s interest to work in tandem with our European partners, who will bear the burden of Ukraine’s financial and economic survival. It would be a mistake for a ceasefire deal to come at the cost of the transatlantic alliance.”

Rebuilding Ukraine

A successful economic recovery in Ukraine requires steps to alter the trajectory of its labor force, attract private investment to ease the burden on public finances, and provide long-term stability, Charles Becker, Peter Devine, Aaron Lam, Michelle Schultze, and Eva Spektorov write in this Center for Preventive Action report.

Across the Globe

Germany’s new power map. The country saw its highest voter turnout since its 1990 unification in yesterday’s election. Merz’s center-right alliance won almost 29 percent of votes, while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) won around 21 percent, followed by outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s center-left party with 16.4 percent and the Greens with 11.6 percent. While the AfD received the highest support for a German far-right party since World War II, Merz ruled out a coalition with them.

EU eases Syria sanctions. The bloc announced it is suspending transportation, energy, and banking sanctions on Syria as part of efforts to support “an inclusive political transition” and “swift economic recovery, reconstruction, and stabilization” in the country. The Council of the European Union said it would monitor the steps and continue to assess its sanctions policy.

Prisoner release delay. Hamas handed over six hostages over the weekend as planned in the cease-fire deal with Israel. But Israel did not release the more than 600 Palestinian prisoners as scheduled, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying Hamas had repeatedly violated the truce and made hostage releases into “humiliating ceremonies.” Yesterday, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff said that he expects phase two of the cease-fire deal to move forward and that he will visit the Middle East in the coming week.

Indonesia’s sovereign fund. The Indonesian government launched its second sovereign wealth fund today. Such funds have multiplied in emerging Asian economies in recent years as governments have sought more control over state assets. But Indonesia’s new fund is already controversial; President Prabowo Subianto is funding it in part through public spending cuts that prompted anti-austerity protests in recent days.

Restrictions on Afghan radio. The Taliban information ministry said on Saturday it would lift a suspension on Radio Begum, a women’s station that government authorities raided and closed down on February 4. It said the radio could resume broadcasts that were in accordance with the “regulations of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.” Still, yesterday the Afghan Journalists Center said the outlets remained closed and two detained journalists had not yet been released.

India-UK trade talks. The countries agreed to accelerate talks on bilateral trade and investment deals, India’s trade minister said. The UK trade secretary is in India to restart negotiations, which he has called a “top priority” for the Labour government. More than a dozen rounds of bilateral trade talks have been held since 2022, but they were paused last year ahead of elections in both countries.

Firings at U.S. military, USAID. The Trump administration dismissed the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General CQ Brown, Jr. and other top military officers including the navy chief and senior military lawyers in a surprise shakeup that began last Friday. In a social media post, Trump praised General Brown and did not give an official reason for firing him. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said Brown was “not the right man for the moment.” Hegseth had previously said Brown should be fired for “woke” military programs and had described Lisa Franchetti, the dismissed navy head, as a “DEI hire.” Franchetti was the first woman to hold the position and to sit on the Joint Chiefs; Brown was the second Black Joint Chiefs of Staff head. Separately, yesterday the Trump administration said it was firing two thousand employees of USAID and placing thousands more on leave.

Fading U.S. counternarcotics support. The current U.S. freeze on foreign aid has stalled a program in Mexico that aimed to block imported fentanyl materials from the country’s drug cartels, eight unnamed sources told Reuters. The program provided training and equipment to screen cargo at Mexican ports. A White House press official did not answer Reuters questions about the funding halt, saying Trump is working to secure the border.

A Conversation With General CQ Brown, Jr.

Last September, General Brown gave CFR’s annual David A. Morse lecture. In conversation with CFR President Michael Froman, he reflected on his first year as Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman and how the military should be innovating.

The Day Ahead

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change begins a weeklong plenary meeting in Hangzhou, China.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov concludes visit to Turkey.
A rare alignment of the five brightest planets in the solar system will be visible in the night sky.

How Far-Right Gains Are Changing Europe

As far-right parties make significant strides in Austria and Germany, they are pulling EU policies in a rightward direction, CFR expert Liana Fix and CFR’s Sofia Winograd write in this Expert Brief. The shift has implications for Ukraine, migration policy, and Euroskepticism.