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"Trump's AI investment plan, Traders brace for volatility, China VP on global trade."

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

 

SHENZHEN  NEW DELHI  JENIN JANUARY 22, 2025 READ ON THE WEB Flagship Asia Morning Edition Sign up for our free newsletters→   The World Today Trump’s AI investment plan Traders brace for volatility China VP on global trade Europe differs on Trump Big banker bonuses in Asia India economy loses steam Israel’s West Bank operation Samsung unveils new phones France’s low-carbon electricity Scientists under pressure AI-powered plant pot or “Tamagotchi from hell”? ↓ 1 Trump to push massive AI investment Al Drago/Pool via Reuters US President Donald Trump is set to announce up to $500 billion in private sector investment to bolster the country’s artificial intelligence infrastructure. Backed by OpenAI, Softbank, and Oracle, the “Stargate” venture will begin with a data center in Texas, before expanding to other states, according to reports Tuesday. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has repeatedly called for more AI infrastructure investment to boost US national security and to compete with China technologically. The announcement was expected on Trump’s first full day in office, which also saw the president advance his legislative and political agenda as pushback to some of his plans began: Two dozen Democratic states and cities sued over Trump’s effort to scrap birthright citizenship. ↓ 2 Markets volatile as Trump returns Andrew Kelly/File Photo/Reuters Donald Trump’s return to the White House roiled global markets. The president’s crush of announcements — or in some cases, offhand comments — on energy, trade, and immigration sent currencies “on a roller coaster,” Bloomberg’s John Authers wrote, while Asian stocks fluctuated sharply, Nikkei Asia reported. “The only thing we can be sure of is ‘uncertainties’ will continue,” a Hong Kong-based strategist said. The market swings signaled how closely investors are watching Trump’s every move, and how foreign currencies will likely be at the whim of his unpredictable decisions. On Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase set up a “war room” to sift through each one of his early policies, with analysts working through the night, a top executive said. ↓ 3 China says ‘no winners’ in trade war Yves Herman/Reuters China plans to import more goods and isn’t seeking a trade surplus, Beijing’s vice premier said Tuesday. While Ding Xuexiang didn’t directly mention the US during a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, his remark that there are “no winners” in a trade war was seen as a nod to Washington. Shortly before Ding’s speech, President Donald Trump avoided committing to a plan for tariff hikes targeting Beijing, the latest sign of thawing US-China ties as his second term gets underway, experts said. Tariffs are a cornerstone of Trump’s economic policy, however, “and they’ll be making an appearance in one form or another before long,” analysts at Beijing-based Trivium China said. ↓ 4 Europe CEOs, pols diverge on Trump Barclays CEO C. S. Venkatakrishnan and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Yves Herman/Reuters Europe’s top CEOs and politicians broadly voiced divergent views on Donald Trump’s return. Executives at the World Economic Forum in Davos expressed optimism: Barclays’ head said the winds of easing US regulations “are blowing towards Europe and the U.K,” while Novartis’ CEO presented Trump 2.0 as “a big moment for Europe” to boost competitiveness. However, Germany’s vice chancellor said the bloc shouldn’t “let ourselves be pushed around” by the US, and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen warned Davos attendees about a “race to the bottom” on trade as Trump threatens new tariffs. She sought to paint Europe as a predictable partner open to business with nations in Trump’s crosshairs: “Our deals have no hidden strings attached.” For the big ideas and small talk from the global village, subscribe to Semafor’s daily Davos newsletter. → ↓ 5 Big bonuses for India bankers National Stock Exchange of India. Francis Mascarenhas/File Photo/Reuters India’s banner year for stock offerings is buoying bankers’ bonuses there. Morgan Stanley is hiking bonuses for its top performers in India and Australia by up to 40%, Bloomberg reported. India’s equity market had a big 2024: The country saw a record number of IPOs, surpassing other major regional markets. Even as banks globally raise bonuses thanks to an uptick in deal-making, bankers focused on China are likely to see muted benefits. Beijing’s economy is struggling and company fundraising plummeted last year due to heightened regulatory scrutiny, leading Chinese companies to turn to the US and Hong Kong for listings. ↓ 6 Indian economy slows down Amit Dave/Reuters India, the world’s fastest-growing major economy, has lost some of its momentum. A recent stock market dip wiped out six months’ worth of gains, and the rupee is falling against the dollar. The revised GDP outlook for the current fiscal year is 6.4%, down from 8.2% last year, and overseas investors are fleeing. Businesses are facing regulatory burdens and political interference, The New York Times reported, and the economy is struggling to create jobs. Meanwhile, the government’s efforts to transition away from coal are faltering: New Delhi is pouring billions into solar megaprojects, but these efforts are ensnared in land ownership disputes and regulatory holdups, with plans repeatedly delayed or canceled, the Financial Times reported. ↓ 7 Israel launches West Bank operation Raneen Sawafta/Reuters An Israeli military operation in the occupied West Bank on Tuesday killed eight Palestinians, a day after US President Donald Trump rescinded sanctions on far-right Israeli settlers accused of violence. Israel said the raids were a counterterrorism effort, as Hamas is ramping up efforts to arm militants in the West Bank, The New York Times reported. The offensive came after Israeli ultranationalists attacked Palestinian villages to protest the new ceasefire in Gaza. Trump’s decision to remove the Biden-era sanctions signal that his administration “will be the most pro-Israel in decades,” the Financial Times reported, and the presence of a settler movement leader at his inauguration “highlighted just how quickly Washington has shifted its stance,” The Times of Israel wrote. ↓ 8 Samsung to unveil AI-equipped phones Kim Hong-Ji/File Photo/Reuters Samsung will unveil a new lineup of phones equipped with AI Wednesday, as the South Korean firm ramps up competition with US tech giant Apple and Chinese rivals. Global shipments of Samsung’s smartphones declined at the end of 2024, even as the overall market for the devices rebounded last year. Chinese competitors are largely to blame: They have expanded their market share with cheaper devices, and they now dominate the domestic market. Huawei was the top seller in China last year, dethroning Apple, which fell to third place, new data showed, and the country’s growing aversion to foreign-made phones also dented Samsung’s sales. ↓ 9 France’s electricity is nearly fossil fuel-free More than 95% of France’s electricity was produced by low-carbon sources in 2024, a record. Some of the country’s nuclear fleet had been shut down for maintenance through 2022 and 2023, but came back on last year, with nuclear generation jumping 13% year-on-year. Heavy rains fueled France’s hydropower sector to hit a 12-year high, pushing renewables to 28% of total output, and fossil fuels produced less energy than at any point since the early 1950s. Solar power receded slightly, but France can expect another low-carbon year in 2025: The first new nuclear plant in 25 years was added to the grid in December. A further six are planned, but are unlikely to come online until the 2030s. ↓ 10 Scientists face ‘pressure to publish’ Michael Dalder/Reuters Scientists are under pressure to “publish or perish” in order to further their careers, undermining the scientific process. Nearly three-quarters of biomedical scientists recently surveyed said the “reproducibility crisis” — whereby many research findings don’t stand up to scrutiny — is real, with 62% citing the fact that their career depends on publishing research regularly as a key driver of the problem. Many journals avoid publishing negative findings, and scientists are incentivized to find something, even when there might not actually be much there. Respondents also flagged cherry-picking data and small sample sizes as compounding the crisis. One 2016 study found that more than 70% of scientists had had trouble reproducing their peers’ work. ↓ Flagging Jan. 22: A US Senate committee votes on whether to advance Donald Trump’s nominee for attorney general, Pam Bondi, to a Senate vote. Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz travels to Paris to meet French President Emmanuel Macron. Nominations are announced for the 45th Golden Raspberry Awards, a dubious honor for the worst movies of 2024. ↓ Curio Photo via LeafyPod A self-watering, AI-powered plant pot aims to help houseplant owners keep their green friends alive. The LeafyPod, unveiled at the annual Las Vegas tech show CES, “automatically adapts to each plant’s specific needs,” monitoring environmental conditions and preferences to create a bespoke watering routine over time, its co-founder told Dezeen. Sensors detect when moisture, light, humidity, and temperature — the four main causes of plant death — are out of kilter, alerting owners via an app. One CNET writer who owns almost 100 houseplants was not a fan, however, describing the pot as “nightmare fuel” that threatened to turn their plants into a “Tamagotchi from hell.” ↓ Semafor Spotlight Nathan Howard/Reuters Joe Biden’s White House homeland security team urged Trump’s team to focus on a number of major threats that include Iran’s plots against dissidents and current and former US officials, Semafor’s Morgan Chalfant scooped. Liz Sherwood-Randall, Biden’s top homeland security adviser, briefed the incoming Trump team headed by Stephen Miller on seven top priorities. For more on the Trump transition, subscribe to Semafor’s daily Principals newsletter. → You’re receiving this email because you signed up for newsletters from Semafor. Manage your preferences or unsubscribe here.Read our privacy policy Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get Semafor in your inbox. Semafor, Inc. 228 Park Ave S, PMB 59081, New York, NY, 10003-1502, USA