"Israel announces 'extended' new military operation in the West Bank."

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

Daily News Brief

January 22, 2025

Top of the Agenda

Israel Announces ‘Extensive’ New Military Operation in West Bank

Israel’s military has increased its operations in the West Bank as the cease-fire in Gaza continues to hold, with Prime Minister Benjamin Nentanyahu yesterday announcing an “extensive and significant” new campaign there aimed at “eradicating terrorism.” Ten people were killed and at least forty wounded, the Palestinian Health Ministry said yesterday. The military push in the city of Jenin came after Israeli settler groups attacked Palestinians in the West Bank Monday, the same day U.S. President Donald Trump removed sanctions imposed in 2024 on dozens of individuals and settler groups accused of violence.

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said yesterday that the West Bank had become a part of Israel’s “war goals,” reflecting concerns about Hamas efforts to fortify fighters there after the group’s strength was diminished in Gaza. Since the Gaza cease-fire took effect, violence in the West Bank has risen, the UN Human Rights Office in Ramallah said Monday. The Palestinian Authority for weeks has waged its own crackdown against militants in the territory. (NYT, The Guardian, CNN, FT)

Analysis

“The United States also has three major interests in the Middle Eastern conflict: protecting Israel, checking Iran, and saving the possibility of Palestine. Achieving the first two goals now seems possible, but the third—necessary for any long-term regional peace and stability—will be tougher to pull off. It will require going beyond the recent cease-fire agreement to pathways for eventually ending the Israeli occupation of Gaza and the West Bank,” CFR Adjunct Senior Fellow Gideon Rose writes for Foreign Affairs.

“The [Palestinian Authority] operation has also been widely interpreted as an attempt by the PA to demonstrate to the international community that it has the capacity to take on a role in administering Gaza once the war between Israel and Hamas in the enclave is over—an idea backed by the U.S., Arab, and European states, but vehemently opposed by Israel’s hardline government,” the Financial Times’ James Schotter writes.

Pacific Rim

Trump Threatens 10 Percent Tariffs on China

Trump yesterday said his administration was considering hitting Chinese products with 10 percent tariffs beginning February 1 based on Chinese actions of “sending fentanyl to Mexico and Canada.” It was Trump’s first tariff threat against China since taking office, though during the campaign he had proposed a 60 percent tariff on Chinese goods. Yesterday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, China’s vice premier said there were “no winners” in a trade war. (CNBC)

CFR expert Zongyuan Zoe Liu unpacks China’s role in the global fentanyl trade.

South Korea: Impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol appeared at a hearing for the first time in a Constitutional Court trial over his potential removal from office yesterday. His lawyer said that Yoon’s December martial law declaration was not meant to be executed but rather to raise an alert over abuses by the country’s opposition. The lawyer also denied testimony by military commanders that Yoon had ordered the arrests of some lawmakers. Yoon will be back in court tomorrow. (Reuters, Yonhap)

South and Central Asia

Azerbaijan Trial of Seven Media Workers Begins

Six of the defendants are affiliated with Abzas Media, which focuses on corruption and human rights, and one is a reporter with the Azeri service of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL). All seven face smuggling charges that they deny, and which press freedom groups have denounced as attempts to stifle reporting. The director of RFE/RL denied that their reporter had worked for Abzas and called the case “baseless.” (Reuters)

Pakistan: The country reached a deal on terms for a loan of $1 billion for up to a year with two Middle East banks, Pakistan’s finance minister told Reuters. Pakistan is trying to raise money ahead of a February review of its International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout program. International ratings agencies upgraded Pakistan last year after the IMF deal was announced, though it remains below investment grade. (Reuters)

Middle East and North Africa

French Court Issues Arrest Warrant for Syria’s Ousted Dictator

This is the second French arrest warrant against Bashar al-Assad, who fled to Russia after last month’s rebel takeover of Syria. It accuses Assad of a role in a 2017 bombing that killed a Franco-Syrian. (RFI)

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Africa Says G20 Presidency Will Focus on Debt, Green Industrialization

South Africa becomes the first African country to chair the Group of Twenty this year. Pretoria will direct the group’s planning forums to focus on how debt of developing countries stifles climate and developmental progress and how they can carry out green industrialization goals. (Bloomberg)

This CFR Backgrounder explains what’s been on the G20’s agenda.

Ghana: The government appointed a former national security chief as envoy to the three junta-led countries of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. It was a sign of rapprochement after Ghana’s bilateral relations with Burkina Faso collapsed in 2022 over accusations of allowing Wagner Group paramilitary fighters to operate in the border area. (Reuters)

Europe

Ukraine’s Zelenskyy Pitches Cease-Fire Vision for 200,000 European Peacekeepers

A “minimum” of two hundred thousand European peacekeepers should be on the ground in Ukraine to guarantee its security in the case of a halt to the war with Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said at Davos. He has rejected Russia’s demand that Ukraine shrink its army to a fifth of its current size. Separately, the leaders of France and Germany are meeting today to discuss their stance on the war in Ukraine. (The Guardian, DW)

CFR’s Center for Preventive Action has the latest on the war in Ukraine.

Denmark/Greenland: The Premier of Greenland Mute B. Egede seeks direct talks with Trump over his interest in acquiring the territory, he said yesterday. Last week, Denmark’s prime minister held a phone call with Trump over the issue. Trump maintained a threat of tariffs on Denmark in that conversation. (Bloomberg)

Americas

Brazil Names Climate Negotiator as President of COP30

Diplomat André Correa do Lago will helm this year’s UN climate conference in Belem, Brazil. Correa do Lago has often represented Brazil at international climate talks. The last two COP presidents in the United Arab Emirates and Azerbaijan both had a background of working for state oil companies. (Climate Home News)

Lindsay Maizland and CFR’s Clara Fong look at climate diplomacy at COP over the years.

U.S./Cuba: A deal to free detainees from Cuban prisons in exchange for the loosening of U.S. restrictions on the island is now in limbo after Trump reimposed those restrictions, which place Cuba on a terrorism blacklist. Some 150 of a planned over 500 prisoners have been freed. One freed detainee said they were only granted “conditional” liberty. (Reuters)

United States

Tech Firms Announce Plan for $100 Billion AI Data Center

Open AI, SoftBank, and Oracle will form a new company to grow artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure in the United States, planning to invest an initial $100 billion in a data center in Texas. They announced the plans in Washington alongside Trump, who pledged to speed construction through executive declarations. Trump appeared to signal that boosting U.S. progress in the sector would be a priority amid the global scramble for AI dominance. (CNN, CBS, AP)

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