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"Israeli cabinet weighs Gaza Deal."

Views expressed in this geopolitical news update are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 16 January 2025, 1236 UTC.

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Daily News Brief January 16, 2025

Top of the Agenda Cease-Fire Deal Moves to Israel’s Cabinet for Approval Many Israelis, Palestinians, and global observers celebrated yesterday’s announcement that Israel and Hamas had reached a complex cease-fire and hostage release agreement, even as political hurdles remained to its full implementation. Israel’s cabinet delayed a vote today that is required for the deal to move forward; if approved, the first stage of the cease-fire could be set in motion as soon as Sunday. The deal followed intensive diplomacy by the United States—both the outgoing and incoming administrations—Egypt, and Qatar. Leaders from around the world voiced hope that the cease-fire could move forward and that humanitarian aid could surge into Gaza. A national security official from the Joe Biden administration said that Washington “fully” expects the deal will commence on Sunday despite the delay in the Israeli government. While the details of the agreement are still subject to final approval, drafts that have been widely reported in the media feature a first six-week phase in which Hamas would release thirty-three hostages, Israel would release hundreds of Palestinians, Israeli forces would begin to withdraw from population centers in Gaza, and humanitarian aid would surge into the enclave. (Reuters, CNN)

Analysis “A cease-fire and hostage deal does not necessarily end the war,” CFR Senior Fellow Steven A. Cook writes. “The cease-fire and hostage agreement will save lives and provide an opportunity for more humanitarian assistance to reach Gazans in need.”   “If the cease-fire holds, what next? For over a year Mr. Biden and his representatives have dangled the possibility of a grand bargain, which would include an official alliance between Israel and the Saudis, as an incentive for ending the war in Gaza and relaunching a diplomatic process that would lead eventually to a Palestinian state. Mr. Netanyahu demurred. The deal with Hamas is a sign that he may finally be shifting in that direction, and not only because Mr. Trump is more insistent,” the Economist writes.  This CFR Education timeline looks at the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

United States Biden Warns of ‘Oligarchy’ in Parting Oval Office Speech

Biden touched on foreign and domestic policy issues in his final Oval Office address yesterday, saying that American democracy has “held strong” and the United States has “pulled ahead” in the competition with China. Yet he expressed concern about “the potential rise of a tech-industrial complex,” citing both Dwight D. Eisenhower’s parting address—which warned of a military-industrial complex—and Gilded Age robber barons. “An oligarchy is taking shape in America of extreme wealth, power and influence that literally threatens our entire democracy, our basic rights and freedoms and a fair shot for everyone to get ahead,” Biden said. “We see the consequences all across America. And we’ve seen it before.” (NYT) This episode of Why It Matters discusses the power of tech titans.

Pacific Rim Washington Announces New Chip Export Curbs, Widens Tech Blacklist The U.S. Commerce Department unveiled a draft rule restricting certain advanced chipmakers from providing to Chinese and other unverified developers, citing national security concerns. It also added fourteen Chinese firms and two Singaporean firms to a list that bans U.S. firms from trading with them. (Nikkei)   For Net Politics, CFR Senior Fellow Michael C. Horowitz unpacks what to know about new U.S. steps to restrict artificial intelligence technologies.   Indonesia: The country’s central bank unveiled a surprise interest rate cut aimed at increasing economic growth. Officials at many central banks around the world have signaled cautious stances on monetary policy amid uncertainty about potential trade tensions with the United States, but Indonesia’s president has said he wants to boost annual GDP growth to 8 percent from its recent average of 5 percent. (Bloomberg, Reuters, FT) CFR Senior Fellow Benn Steil tracks GDP growth around the globe.

South and Central Asia India Becomes Fourth-Ever Country to Dock Two Aircraft in Space Only the United States, China, and Russia had completed space docking prior to India’s exercise, which is central to its ambitions to put a person on the moon. (Times of India, BBC) Pakistan: The World Bank has approved a first-of-its-kind $20 billion loan program for the country. It extends over ten years and is designed to last through various administrations with a focus on climate resilience, clean energy, and poverty reduction. Pakistan is already in the midst of a bailout from the International Monetary Fund. (Dawn, FT)

Middle East and North Africa Saudi Arabia State Companies Announce New Lithium Mining Push State oil company Aramco will partner with state mining company Ma’aden in an effort to start producing commercial lithium by 2027, the companies said. They will explore direct extraction mining technologies, which are being tested worldwide as a potential way to save costs. (Mining.com, Bloomberg) CFR President Michael Froman writes from Riyadh on how the kingdom is looking inward.

Sub-Saharan Africa Central African Republic Leader Holds Talks With Putin Central African Republic President Faustin-Archange Touadéra is discussing how to deepen bilateral cooperation in a Moscow meeting today with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Paramilitary fighters from Russia’s Wagner Group have supported government forces in the Central African Republic since 2018. (AFP) Mozambique: Hundreds of people demonstrated against the swearing-in of President Daniel Chapo yesterday to continue the ruling party’s five decades in power; two of the three opposition parties boycotted the inauguration. Mozambique has seen deadly demonstrations in the wake of Chapo’s election in a vote that opposition candidate Venâncio Mondlane and other countries including the United States called rigged. (AP, NYT)

Europe United States Widens Sanctions on Russian Military The Treasury Department is renewing sanctions on around one hundred entities in the country’s finance, defense, and energy sectors, and introducing them on fifteen more. The moves aim to block Russia from circumventing sanctions, a Treasury official said. (The Hill)    In this article, Edward Fishman argues that tighter sanctions could help end the Russia-Ukraine war. Ireland: The two dominant center-right parties finalized a coalition deal with independent lawmakers yesterday following a period of uncertainty after November elections. The new coalition pledged to address concerns over housing and public services as well as strengthen its engagement with the United States. (Reuters, Bloomberg)

Americas Former Central Banker Jumps in Race for Canadian Prime Minister  Former governor of the central banks of both Canada and the United Kingdom Mark Carney will go public with his Liberal Party leadership bid today, a Liberal lawmaker said. He would be one of the highest-profile candidates to step into the race to succeed Justin Trudeau. Trudeau’s former deputy Chrystia Freeland is also expected to announce a run in the coming days, unnamed sources told CBC. (CBC) France/Italy/Venezuela: The French and Italian governments summoned Venezuelan diplomats in their countries after the Venezuelan government limited the number of French, Italian, and Dutch diplomats in Caracas. Venezuela cited the countries’ “hostile” response to its disputed election. France’s foreign ministry said it would take unspecified “reciprocal measures” against Venezuela. (Reuters)

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