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"Rebel advance in DRC and Serbian leader resigns."

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

 

Daily News Brief January 29, 2025

Top of the Agenda Global Warnings About DRC Conflict Grow as Rebels Take Crucial City Rwandan-backed M23 rebels seized the airport in the largest eastern city in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) yesterday. Their sweep into Goma—which was a humanitarian hub—marks the worst escalation since 2012 in an ongoing insurgency. It prompted appeals for de-escalation from the UN Security Council and countries ranging from China to the United States. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke to leaders of both DRC and Rwanda on the phone this week, urging a cease-fire and saying the U.S. is “deeply troubled” by events there. Kenya had planned to host a crisis meeting to help mediate today, but the DRC’s president declined to attend, Congolese state media reported.    The violence in Goma has prompted hundreds of thousands of people to flee, the UN deputy special representative in Congo said. When M23 rebels took over the city in 2012, Rwanda was hit with international sanctions, and the rebels were defeated the following year. So far, countries have largely held back from similar threats this time. In just three days of fighting, local hospitals tallied more than one hundred people killed and almost one thousand wounded, the AFP reported. In the DRC capital of Kinshasa, demonstrators attacked a UN compound and foreign missions—including those of its former colonizer Belgium, France, and the United States—in anger over the international community’s failure to stop the rebel advance. (Reuters, NYT, U.S. State Department, France 24, AFP)

Analysis “The Democratic Republic of Congo’s displacement crisis is second only to Sudan’s, and many of the roughly 1.5 million people now trapped in Goma have been on the run from conflict for years. Peacekeepers from the United Nations and the Southern African Development Community were killed in the latest advance. But drivers of the conflict are murkier than the scale of the emergency, particularly if one tries to glean insight from the rhetoric of the antagonists involved,” CFR expert Michelle Gavin writes for Africa in Transition.    “With the fate of [Goma] in the balance, analysts say a conflict that could be tamed with strong international pressure against Rwanda is, instead, spiraling out of control,” the New York Times’ Ruth Maclean writes.

Pacific Rim New Zealand Reviewing Aid to Kiribati, Citing Snub Wellington announced it is reconsidering its aid to the island nation of Kiribati after a diplomatic meeting was abruptly canceled this month. New Zealand and Australian officials have been frustrated that Kiribati is moving closer to China. A Kiribati official said the alleged snub was due to a scheduling conflict, but New Zealand’s foreign minister yesterday maintained his version of events. (AP, Radio New Zealand)   China/Thailand: The first phase of a long-delayed rail project that will connect China, Laos, and Thailand is 36 percent done and the entire project is due to be completed in 2030, a Thai government spokesperson said. Thailand sees the rail as critical to boost trade with China. (Bloomberg)

South and Central Asia Hospitals Serving Myanmar Refugees Ordered to Close After U.S. Aid Freeze The International Rescue Committee (IRC) funds the hospitals on the Thai-Myanmar border with U.S. backing. IRC told them to close by Friday, an unnamed local official and sources at refugee camps told Reuters; last week President Donald Trump ordered a halt on U.S. foreign aid. The IRC did not comment. (Reuters)   CFR’s Global Conflict Tracker explains the latest on the worsening war in Myanmar.  India: A crowd crush at a Hindu festival killed multiple people early today. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi acknowledged the deaths in a speech, but officials did not immediately issue casualty numbers. (CNN)

Middle East and North Africa Netanyahu to Meet With Trump Envoy, Invited to White House Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is due to meet today with U.S. Mideast envoy Steven Witkoff, Netanyahu’s office said. It added that Trump has invited Netanyahu to the White House on February 4, which would make Netanyahu the first foreign leader to visit during Trump’s second administration. The talks are expected to cover the unfolding Gaza cease-fire and hostage deal. (NYT)    On The President’s Inbox, CFR expert Steven A. Cook unpacks how the cease-fire came about and how it’s going.  Syria/Russia: Syria’s transitional government held “frank” talks with a visiting Russian delegation yesterday, the Kremlin said. An unnamed Syrian source told Russia that the Syrians had sought the handover of ousted leader Bashar al-Assad, who fled to Moscow. A Syrian readout of the meeting also said it stressed the need for Russian “compensation” and “reconstruction” in the country, but did not mention military bases in the country that Moscow seeks to retain. (Reuters, Bloomberg)

Sub-Saharan Africa France Pledges $1 Billion for Electrification Projects in Africa The funds will be channeled through a French state bank as part of a World Bank-backed initiative, French President Emmanuel Macron said. It hopes to connect 300 million people in several countries to electricity by 2030. (Bloomberg, RFI)

Europe Serbian Prime Minister Resigns After Anticorruption Protests The weeks of demonstrations highlighted growing citizen demand for transparency in the country, which has been a candidate to join the European Union since 2012. Miloš Vučević had been in office as prime minister for less than a year, and stepped down “to defuse tensions,” he said. (The Guardian)   Ukraine: The country’s anti-graft bureau opened an investigation into Defense Minister Rustem Umerov over whether he had abused authority. Last Friday, Umerov dismissed the head of the weapons procurement agency, citing “unsatisfactory” performance. On Monday, Group of Seven countries urged Kyiv to resolve the dispute, warning that it could undermine confidence or disrupt supplies. (Reuters, FT) CFR expert Heidi Crebo-Rediker lays out whyTrump should see ending the Ukraine war as an economic opportunity.

Americas Canadian Probe Finds Foreign Attempts to Influence Politics, ‘Marginal’ Effects on Lawmakers  A monthslong public inquiry into alleged attempts to influence Canadian politics identified efforts by China, India, and others to try to sway politics through traditional and social media activity. But it said that efforts to try to influence specific lawmakers were “marginal and largely ineffective.” The commissioner of the government report said there was no evidence of “traitors” in parliament but that the government had communicated poorly about the issue. China and India have repeatedly denied meddling in internal Canadian affairs. (BBC, FT)   U.S./Panama: Senior Panamanian and U.S. diplomats met yesterday in preparation for Secretary Rubio’s Saturday stopover in Panama. Panama expressed that it is ready to work together on U.S. concerns regarding Chinese involvement in the country, saying Panama would “gravitate” toward U.S. investment, an unnamed Panamanian official told the Wall Street Journal. (WSJ) CFR’s Diana Roy explains the Trump-Panama Canal controversy.

United States Judge Blocks Part of Trump Freeze on Federal Funding

Yesterday’s temporary ruling came minutes before Trump’s order would have gone into effect. The freeze on federal grants and loans had prompted confusion about its operational effects. The Trump administration also offered some 2 million workers packages in which they would resign but be paid through September, saying downsizing and furloughs were ahead at the majority of federal agencies; military personnel and immigration officials would be among those exempt from the action. (BBC, NYT) U.S. company Boom, which builds supersonic airliners, broke the sound barrier for the first time in a test over the Mojave desert. An Anglo-French airliner, Concorde, offered flights that went twice the speed of sound some two decades ago, but its service was discontinued after a 2003 crash that killed 100 people. (Bloomberg)

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