WPR Daily Review

 "How Oman quietly became a vital player in the Gulf."

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

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November 7, 2024

Hello, everyone. Today at WPR, we’re covering Oman’s expanding role in regional diplomacy and the growing backlash to overtourism in Europe.

But first, here’s our take on today’s top story:

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz gives a statement after a meeting with government leaders in Berlin, Germany, Nov. 6, 2024 (AP photo by Markus Schreiber).

Germany: Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired Finance Minister Christian Lindner yesterday, collapsing his three-party governing coalition. He also announced that he would submit to a vote of confidence on Jan. 15 that he is widely expected to lose, paving the way for early federal elections, likely in March.  (Washington Post)

Our Take: This collapse has been a long time coming. There have been tensions within Germany’s Ampelkoalition, or traffic light coalition—a reference to the three parties’ colors—essentially since it took power in 2021.

The latest sticking point, which ultimately led to the collapse, has been negotiations over next year’s budget, which currently faces large gaps. Scholz’s Social Democrats, or SPD, and the Greens favor relaxing the country’s “debt brake”—which limits the country’s public deficit and is enshrined in the constitution—in order to fund more public investment and aid to Ukraine. But the market-friendly Free Democrats, of which Lindner is the party leader, ardently opposed such a move.

The impasse led to political paralysis at a time when Germany’s economy has stagnated and is expected to shrink for the second year in a row in 2024. Germany is also particularly vulnerable to the EU-wide shift toward a tougher approach on trade with China, given its export-driven economy’s outsize reliance on the Chinese market.

With these mounting challenges, it’s likely that Germany needs the political clarification that elections could bring. But in the meantime, the Ampelkoalition’s collapse will only result in more uncertainty. Scholz now leads a minority government with little if any room to maneuver, accentuating the existing paralysis.

That leaves Berlin, historically a major force in intra-EU policy debates, greatly weakened at a time when the bloc urgently needs to address a range of economic and security issues, including relations with China, the green transition and Russia’s war in Ukraine. And the election on Tuesday of former U.S. President Donald Trump to a second term will only complicate matters, since he is broadly expected to downgrade relations with Europe and potentially cut off aid to Ukraine.

Normally, Germany and France would lead the EU’s response to major challenges like these, but both are now facing domestic political instability that has forced their leaders to turn inward. That leaves a gap for other EU forces to fill. In principle, that could mean greater freedom of action for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who has pushed for Brussels to play a more influential role on the geopolitical stage. But the EU’s working mechanisms make it unlikely that Brussels might take on such a leading role unilaterally.

In the meantime, it is the far-right leaders of Italy and Hungary—PM Giorgia Meloni and PM Viktor Orban, respectively—that stand to gain the most from the developments of this week. Not only does a weaker Germany give them more room to push for their own agendas in intra-EU policy debates, but their ideological alignment with Trump means they will have more influence to set the tone of U.S.-EU relations when he returns to the White House in January.

Read all our recent coverage of Germany here.

The member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council have stood out in recent years for successfully balancing their relationships with competing global powers in order to better position themselves for the emerging multipolar world.

However, of them all, Oman has most leveraged its long-standing tradition of robust neutrality in a volatile region to make itself a uniquely valued partner for both global and regional powers.

In particular, Washington’s continued reliance on Muscat as a vital backchannel for indirect talks with Tehran has become an enduring pillar of Oman’s regional foreign policy, one that has only become more central amid the escalating regional confrontation between Israel and Iran, Jonathan Fenton-Harvey writes.

Oman Has Quietly Become a Vital Player in the Gulf

By Jonathan Fenton-Harvey Oman has leveraged its long-standing neutrality in a volatile region to make itself a uniquely valued partner for both global and regional powers.

*****

The 2024 tourist season has seen a record number of vacationers flock to the most popular leisure destinations across Europe. And in many locations, visitors have been greeted with protests against their presence, a sign of the growing backlash against the negative effects of mass tourism.

As John Boyce writes, the movement is creating a dilemma for local politicians and policymakers in locations that rely on the revenue and employment that tourism generates.

An Anti-Tourism Backlash Puts Europe’s Vacation Hot Spots in a Bind

By John Boyce A backlash in Europe against overtourism is putting countries that rely on tourism for revenue and employment in a bind.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump won re-election Tuesday on a platform that included promises to expand the U.S. trade war with China through aggressive tariffs and trade protectionism. At the same time, he has also often expressed admiration for Chinese President Xi Jinping and questioned the U.S. commitment to Taiwan’s security, which has been a major source of bilateral tension in recent years.

This week’s question: Do you expect U.S.-China relations to improve or worsen under the second Trump administration?

Improve Worsen

We’ll select one person from those who answer the question above to receive a free month of full access to WPR.

Russia is hosting a large forum this weekend with foreign ministers from African countries. The gathering in Sochi is Russia’s latest diplomatic effort to raise its profile on the continent.

Reports emerge weekly in the West about Russia’s growing influence in Africa, especially as more African countries have sought partnerships with Russia’s Africa Corps, formerly the Wagner Group. But as Duncan Money and Tycho van der Hoog wrote in June, Russia’s position in Africa is weaker and less profitable than reported, and Moscow’s purported political and economic gains are more doubtful if examined in greater detail.

Russia’s Position in Africa Isn’t as Strong as It Looks

By Duncan Money June 3, 2024 | Reports emerge weekly that Russian influence in Africa is growing. In reality, Moscow’s position is weaker and less profitable than reported.

*****

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has denied wrongdoing amid a burgeoning influence-peddling scandal involving him and his wife that has seen his approval rating plummet to below 20 percent. Yoon faces allegations that he inappropriately influenced his party to choose a candidate for a parliamentary by-election on behalf of the founder of a polling agency who had conducted free opinion surveys for Yoon before he became president.

The scandal is just the latest to hit Yoon and his wife. Last year, a video emerged showing first lady Kim Keon Hee accepting a Dior bag as a gift. As Joel Atkinson wrote in April, that scandal only worsened Yoon’s standing ahead of legislative elections in which Yoon’s party fared poorly earlier this year.

South Korea’s Legislative Elections Leave Yoon Down, but Not Out

By Joel Atkinson April 22, 2024 | South Korea’s legislative elections left President Yoon Suk Yeol with little room to maneuver. He has only himself to blame.

*****

Cuba’s national power grid collapsed yesterday as Hurricane Rafael made landfall on the island’s southwest coast. The nationwide blackout comes less than three weeks after the grid collapsed for four days last month amid a fuel shortage. As we wrote then, the blackouts are the result of broader challenges facing Cuba’s economy.

*****

On Tuesday, Mexico’s Supreme Court dismissed a challenge to a recently passed judicial overhaul that will force thousands of judges to stand for election. The challenge would have limited the constitutional change to only the justices on the Supreme Court. Read more about the judicial overhaul, which former President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador pushed through in his final weeks in office in September, in this column by Frida Ghitis.

More from WPR

Judah Grunstein on Donald Trump’s victory. Alexander Clarkson on baseball’s unifying power. Mie Dahl on the women who protect Colombia’s Amazon. Tobias Harris on what Japan’s recent election means for its foreign policy.

Read all of our latest coverage here.

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