WPR Daily Review

"Trump's Chaos will do a lot of damage."

Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analysis are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 14 November 2024, 0121 UTC.

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November 13, 2024

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Hello, everyone. Today at WPR, we’re covering Donald Trump as an agent of chaos, as well as Tuvalu and Australia’s climate migration pact.

But first, here’s our take on today’s top story:

Elon Musk speaking at the symposium about antisemitism, organized by the European Jewish Association, in Krakow, Poland, on January 22, 2024 (Photo from STR/NurPhoto via AP).

Elon Musk: Without naming him, Italian President Sergio Mattarella clearly rebuked Musk, calling on him to “respect [Italy’s] sovereignty” after Musk used his social media platform X to criticize Italian judges for a ruling Monday that effectively blocked the implementation of Italy’s asylum-processing deal with Albania. The rebuke notably comes one day after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump announced that Musk would co-lead a new “Department of Government Efficiency.” (AP)

Our Take: This is not the first time that Musk has caused controversy with a U.S. ally with his comments on X, formerly Twitter. In August, Musk drew the ire of British PM Keir Starmer after Musk peddled far-right conspiracy theories and amplified anti-immigrant rhetoric on X related to violent race riots targeting asylum-seekers in the United Kingdom. Later that month, Brazil temporarily banned X after the platform, under Musk’s instructions, refused to comply with orders to ban accounts that Brazilian authorities said were spreading misinformation.

To be sure, in both of those cases...

	Subscribe to WPR to read our take on today’s top story.

In the week since it became clear that former U.S. President Donald Trump would be returning to the White House, much discussion has centered on whether he will be willing and able to follow through on some of his most extreme campaign promises.

Compared to his first term, the tight grip he now wields over the Republican Party, along with the much deeper roster of eager personnel at his disposal to staff his next administration, has convinced many observers he will be in a better position to pursue his authoritarian goals in domestic and foreign policy.

But even as supporters of MAGA Republicanism celebrate their moment of triumph, a closer look at the movement’s internal tensions and contradictions indicates that rather than imposing authoritarian order, a politically resurrected Trump is more likely to once more be an agent of chaos, columnist Alexander Clarkson writes.

Trump’s Chaos Will Do More Global Damage Than His Authoritarianism By Alexander Clarkson Trump will damage U.S. democracy and global stability, but infighting among his coalition is likely to limit his authoritarian reach.

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Tuvalu, a Pacific Island nation of 11,200 people, is forecast to be the first country to become uninhabitable due to climate change. In response, it has successfully negotiated the first legally binding climate migration agreement for the emigration of its citizens to another country, specifically Australia.

The bilateral Falepili Union, which was signed late last year, came into effect in August and aims to be operational by mid-2025. It will initially provide 280 Tuvalu citizens, or 2.5 percent of the population, with a voluntary, self-funded legal pathway to emigrate to Australia each year as permanent residents with access to education, employment, state services and a pathway to citizenship.

Experts believe that the Falepili Union could set a global precedent for other countries and regions where worsening climate extremes will exert greater stresses on human life this century, Catherine Wilson writes.

The Tuvalu-Australia Climate Migration Pact Could Set a Global Precedent By Catherine Wilson Tuvalu recently signed a climate migration agreement with Australia. Experts think it could be a model for other countries.

The U.S. is continuing to push to transition an international security mission that is currently fighting gang violence in Haiti to a U.N. peacekeeping mission, which would be more robust and better-funded. The transition is also supported by Kenya, which is leading the current mission, but has been blocked by Russia and China.

This week’s question: Should the U.N. send a peacekeeping mission to Haiti?

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The self-declared republic of Somaliland is voting in a presidential election today, after a delay of two years. The breakaway region declared independence from Somalia in 1991 and has been autonomous since then, but still lacks international recognition.

Over the past decade, Somaliland has sought to bolster its case for international recognition by more deeply engaging with foreign powers through economic integration and military cooperation. But as Matthew Gordon wrote last year, those moves have also unsettled the fragile balance of intercommunal relations that has ensured Somaliland’s stability up to this point.

Somaliland’s Case for International Recognition Is Getting Complicated By Matthew Gordon March 28, 2023 | As Somaliland’s case for recognition grows stronger, recent violence highlights the erosion of its democracy.

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A fight among inmates in Ecuador’s largest prison left 15 dead and 14 wounded, authorities said yesterday. The Litoral penitentiary, where the fight occurred, currently houses about 10,000 inmates, or double its capacity, and was also the site of two riots in 2021 that left more than 175 inmates dead.

Overcrowding in prisons, which in turn leads to worsened conditions for inmates and violence, has become a significant problem across Latin America, fueled by the adoption across the region of hardline policies on crime. And as Joshua Collins wrote in 2021, there is little political will to fix the problem.

Reforming Latin America’s Overcrowded Prisons Won’t Be Easy By Joshua Collins Dec. 1, 2021 | Prison populations in Latin America have grown massively over the past decade. The result has been increases in overcrowding, corruption and violence.

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A committee of Guinean opposition groups, civil society organizations and activists called on the country’s military junta to establish civilian rule by Jan. 1. The junta, which took power in 2021, promised in late 2022 to transition back to a civilian government by the end of 2024, but that transition appears to have stalled. Meanwhile, as Lassane Ouedraogo wrote earlier this year, the junta is facing mounting popular disillusionment as it struggles to address the country’s challenges and increasingly cracks down on civil society.

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Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim will visit Turkey tomorrow for talks focused on bilateral trade. After siding with Qatar in its standoff with the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2017, Turkey is now pursuing a rapprochement with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. But as Jonathan Fenton-Harvey wrote in July, Turkey is still keen to maintain its close ties with Qatar.

More from WPR

Mary Gallagher on Elon Musk, Tesla and Trump’s tariff plans. Michael Cecire on Georgia’s contested elections. James Bosworth on Latin America and the second Trump term. Lyuba Zarsky on AI’s effects on climate change.

Read all of our latest coverage here.

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