WPR Daily Review

"Political polarization isn't the U.S. media's real problem."

Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analysis are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 30 October 2024, 2033 UTC.

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

 

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October 30, 2024

Hello, everyone. Today at WPR, we’re covering the fractured U.S. media landscape and China’s dominance of a key part of the critical mineral market.

But first, here’s our take on today’s top story:

Labour Party leader Keir Starmer speaks on stage at the launch of party’s 2024 general election manifesto in Manchester, England, June 13, 2024 (AP photo by Jon Super).

United Kingdom: Treasury chief Rachel Reeves unveiled earlier today the Labour government’s first budget since winning the country’s general elections in July and returning to power after 14 years in opposition. The budget includes tax increases worth £40 billion, or about $52 billion, and increased investment in public services and infrastructure. (AP)

Our Take: The first budget reveal for any new government is always an eagerly awaited moment, but in the U.K., the Labour government’s budget announcement has been particularly anticipated. That’s in part because of the disastrous impact in 2022 of then-PM Liz Truss’ first—and only—budget announcement during her short-lived premiership, the memory of which has yet to fade.

But this reveal has also been so eagerly awaited because the Labour Party made big promises ahead of July’s general elections in anticipation of returning to power, including that they would not raise taxes for working class people. At the same time, 14 years of austerity under successive Tory governments have left Britain with serious challenges, including deteriorating infrastructure and underfinanced public services. The hollowing out of the National Health Service, or NHS—the country’s universal public health care system—has become a particularly powerful symbol for many of national decline.

With Labour having promised to address these issues in its first budget, the big question was: with what money? Despite more than a decade of austerity, the Tories saddled the Labour government with a yawning gap in public finances, exacerbated by the impact of Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as multibillion-dollar compensation payments to victims of recent government scandals that were not budgeted for under Conservative leadership.

The answer is the hefty tax hikes announced today. Labour made a point of shielding individual taxpayers as much as possible from the pain, with the lion’s share felt by employers through higher payroll taxes. The budget also notably increases the country’s minimum wage, while expanding the government’s ability to finance spending through debt.

But the increased costs for businesses means the budget could be a brake on the U.K.’s economic growth, which is already struggling, due to its potential impact on job creation. And tax increases, no matter how they are distributed or spun, tend to be unpopular, which explains why the Labour government has spent months trying to temper expectations for this budget.

From a policy perspective, the willingness to implement unpopular measures shows a level of seriousness from the government. But from a political standpoint, it is risky, especially because the Labour government’s electoral mandate was not as overwhelming as it seemed, and the party is already suffering a drop in popularity after a series of unforced errors.

Now it is betting that these measures, in particular the increased investments in public services, will have a visible positive impact on British voters’ daily lives before the next elections. With greater investment in the NHS, that could very well be the case. But it is a massive gamble nonetheless.

For more: Read our free Insight on the United Kingdom.

Whenever U.S. journalists lament the loss of civility in the country’s politics, WPR columnist Alexander Clarkson thinks back to his first exposure to U.S. political debate as a young kid in 1980s Canada: the rhetorical combat of the McLaughlin Group, a political talk show broadcast from a TV station on the U.S. side of the border.

In the days before next week’s fateful U.S. presidential election, Clarkson takes a closer look back at how the McLaughlin Group can provide insights into what has really changed when it comes to how the U.S. media shapes politics and what has stayed the same.

Political Polarization Isn’t the Real Problem for the U.S. Media By Alexander Clarkson The U.S. media landscape has fractured into separate partisan spaces that disagree over basic facts and constitutional norms.

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The rush to obtain the “critical minerals” needed for the green transition has led many observers to predict a supply crunch as demand outpaces production. And in the U.S. and Europe, policymakers are growing increasingly concerned about the implications of a looming shortage of these minerals on the West’s strategic competition with China.

Those fears have driven investment into new mines and efforts to create secure supply chains for critical minerals. But these efforts leave out one important detail: All of the extracted minerals need to be smelted and refined before they can be used.

And when it comes to smelting, there is effectively no competition. As Duncan Money writes, China completely dominates the smelting industry, significantly complicating efforts by countries that are trying to create alternative supply chains for critical minerals.

China Has Already Cornered a Key Part of the Critical Minerals Market By Duncan Money The focus on mining the critical minerals for the green transition overlooks a key area of China’s dominance: the smelting industry.

Next Tuesday, Nov. 5, U.S. voters will go to polls to decide whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump will be the country’s next president. The outcome will have a huge impact not only for the U.S., but for the world as well, given Washington’s outsized influence in global politics.

This week’s question: Who will win the U.S. presidential election next week?

Kamala Harris Donald Trump

We’ll select one person from those who answer the question above to receive a free month of full access to WPR.

The EU’s tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles, or EVs, went into effect today, after being approved in a contentious vote earlier this month. The EU said the tariffs are a response to China’s subsidies for its EV industry, which Brussels said give Chinese automakers an unfair advantage.

As we wrote when the tariffs were approved, the EU is clearly trying to avoid making the same mistake it has made in the past regarding China’s growing dominance over certain industries. But as Mary Gallagher warned last year, the issue is still likely to have a serious negative impact on EU-China relations.

Why the EU Is Risking Tariffs on Chinese EVs By The Editors Oct. 4, 2024 | The EU’s willingness to take so many risks by imposing tariffs on Chinese EVs highlights the broader shift in how the West is approaching global trade. Electric Vehicles Are Roiling EU-China Relations By Mary Gallagher Dec. 12, 2023 | The EU has resisted adopting protectionist measures on electric vehicles. But with China controlling so much of the market, it may have to.

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Campaigning for Senegal’s Nov. 17 legislative elections officially began Sunday. President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, who was elected in a landslide victory in March, dissolved parliament last month in an effort to gain a legislative majority to pass his ambitious reform package.

Faye and his political partner PM Ousmane Sonko promised a radical break from Senegal’s “business as usual” politics, and so far, the measures they have implemented have been well-received. But as Samba Dialimpa Badji wrote in August, Faye and Sonko face enormously high expectations, and to deliver, they will need a parliamentary majority.

After a Good Start, Faye and Sonko Face High Expectations in Senegal By Samba Dialimpa Badji Aug. 9, 2024 | Senegal’s new leaders, President Faye and Prime Minister Sonko, promised a radical break with the past administration. Can they deliver?

*****

South Korea’s military intelligence agency reportedly told lawmakers that North Korea will soon test-fire a long-range missile capable of reaching the continental United States. It also said that North Korea has completed preparations for its seventh nuclear test, which would be its first since 2017.

After a relatively quiet period for nuclear and missile tests, North Korea has shown much more movement lately on both fronts, with the timing likely related to the U.S. presidential election. Read more in this edition of the Daily Review from last month.

*****

Germany’s governing coalition is facing another round of infighting as the country’s economy remains stagnant and leaders struggle to agree on the best path to revive it. The coalition’s repeated public airing of grievances with each other has contributed to the government’s falling popularity with the German public. Read more about the coalition’s problems in this briefing by Aaron Allen from January.

Election Updates

Botswana voted in a national election today. Read a preview from AP here.

More from WPR

Mary Gallagher on Donald Trump’s and Kamala Harris’ trade policies. Cristina Guevara on how the U.S. election could affect Central America. Nicholas Blanford on Hezbollah’s war with Israel. James Bosworth on the future of BRICS.

Read all of our latest coverage here.

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