WPR Daily Review

"Hamas has been weakened, but it will survive."

Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analysis are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 22 October 2024, 1953 UTC.

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October 22, 2024

Hello, everyone. Today at WPR, we’re covering the future of Hamas and why there’s really no such thing as a “limited” nuclear weapon.

But first, here’s our take on today’s top story:

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin shake hands during their meeting on the sidelines of BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia, Oct. 22, 2024 (photo by Kristina Kormilitsyna via AP).

BRICS: Russia is hosting this year’s summit of the BRICS grouping beginning today in the city of Kazan. This year’s meeting is also the first summit to include new members Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, alongside its founding members Brazil, Russia India and China, as well as South Africa, which joined in 2010. (AP)

Our Take: The narrative framing around the BRICS bloc in recent years has been increasingly focused on its role amid the new landscape of geopolitical competition. This year’s summit in particular appears to demonstrate Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ability to not only avoid the West’s attempts to turn Russia into a pariah following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but also his attempt to use BRICS to form an alternative to the U.S-led order.

Both have some logic. Russia is hosting 36 countries for this summit, including 20 heads of state. Putin himself will hold 20 bilateral meetings this week. He and Moscow are clearly not isolated, at least not as much as the West would like. And it is true that Putin would prefer to see an alternative to the Western-led order emerge, one in which Russia holds more influence.

However, the problem with this framing is that, because of the war in Ukraine, Russia is now much more of a “taker” than a “giver” in both BRICS and the international system more broadly. The country’s economy is on a war footing, with no surplus resources to put toward the kinds of aid and investment that strengthen international partnerships. BRICS may have saved Russia from complete isolation and economic freefall, but Moscow does not have the power, even within the grouping, to establish its own global leadership.

If any single country could use BRICS to form a counterbalance to the West, it would be China, which has made no secret of its ambition to at the very least lead the Global South. But turning BRICS into an “anti-G7” would require cooperation from the other members of the group. And similar to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which we talked about last week, it’s not clear those other members are on board with that plan.

India, for example, may want to see a more multipolar global order emerge, but New Delhi maintains strong relations with a number of Western countries, and itself has ambitions to compete with China’s growing economic and diplomatic influence. The two rivals also still have tense relations because of a dispute over their border, for which months of talks have only produced a vague pact agreed to earlier this week.

But if Beijing—not to mention Moscow—finds the other members, like India, standing in the way of its grander ambitions for the group, BRICS can still be an effective platform for China and India to manage the tensions that will inevitably arise between them, similar to the role that the SCO has historically played for China and Russia in Central Asia.

Moreover, the shift toward a multipolar world order has been accompanied by a shift toward strategic autonomy, pragmatism and multi-alignment by many states—including several of BRICS’ new members—that were previously more closely aligned with either Washington or Beijing. So the grouping could also be a useful forum in which to harmonize its members’ collective interests, while managing those that diverge.

That means that even if consensus proves difficult to find on every issue, such as a unified posture toward the U.S. and the global order Washington has historically led, BRICS will still be an effective tool to advance their shared interests.

One year into the war on Gaza, Palestine and the issue of Palestinian self-determination is back on the international agenda. The cost, however, has been enormously high. Israel’s conduct of the war has left tens of thousands of Gazans killed, many more injured and displaced, and the entire civilian infrastructure destroyed.

Over the course of the past year, Hamas has also been significantly weakened in the areas of military command and control, governance and political leadership. However, the movement is not finished as a functioning entity, and Israel will be unable to eradicate it completely.

Indeed, Hamas’ multifaceted nature and the extent to which it is socially and religiously embedded within the Palestinian population will provide it with space and oxygen for rebuilding and reorienting after the war ends, Khaled Hroub writes.

Hamas Has Been Weakened, but It Will Survive By Khaled Hroub After a year of war, Hamas is still functioning, and Israel will be unable to eradicate it completely.

*****

Recent discourse around the use of nuclear weapons has raised the potential loophole in international law for tactical, limited or “precise” nuclear weapons used against “legitimate military targets.”

The implication of such terminology is that a low-yield nuclear weapon with a comparatively small radius of “collateral damage” could potentially be used on a battlefield that is distant from civilians or on a military target like the Pentagon.

It’s hard to imagine where such a battlefield might be, besides at sea or in the desert. But even if one does exist, in terms of the international laws of war, there are at least three problems with the idea that so-called low-yield nuclear weapons could be aimed at a military target without massive indiscriminate side effects, columnist Charli Carpenter writes.

There’s No Such Thing as ‘Limited’ Nuclear Weapons By Charli Carpenter Even at their least powerful and even when targeted solely at military objectives, nuclear weapons are still inherently unlawful, indiscriminate and inhumane.

Question of the Day: The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, originally made up of Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan when it was founded in 2001, has since expanded to include four more countries. Which of the following SCO members joined most recently?

India Pakistan Iran Belarus

Find the answer in the latest WPR Weekly Quiz, then read last Wednesday’s edition of the Daily Review for more on the SCO.

Philippine VP Sara Duterte held a news conference Friday in which she repeatedly insulted President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr., adding that at one point she “wanted to cut his head off.” Duterte, the daughter of former President Rodrigo Duterte, resigned from Marcos’ Cabinet in June amid a broader falling out between the Philippines’ two most powerful political families.

The Duterte-Marcos feud is in many ways a reflection of the growing U.S.-China competition in the region. As Richard Javad Heydarian wrote in February, while Marcos is seeking expanded security cooperation with the U.S. amid heightened tensions with Beijing in the South China Sea, the Dutertes have positioned themselves as China’s best hope in the Philippines.

The Marcos-Duterte Family Feud Is Heating Up in the Philippines By Richard Javad Heydarian Feb. 27, 2024 | The Marcos-Duterte feud in the Philippines has reached a boiling point, reflecting the role U.S.-China competition plays in the country.

*****

Italy’s two most populous cities, Rome and Milan, endured the biggest rise in average temperatures in the country in 2022, according to government statistics agency Istat, which recently released data from that year. The average temperatures in 2022 were the highest in more than 50 years, and the numbers from 2024 are expected to be even higher.

Italy’s geography, as well as the policies of its current far-right government, make the country extremely vulnerable to the effects of climate change. As Jakob Cansler wrote last year, that could have a dramatic impact on Italy’s soft power, so much of which has been built on the foundation of the country’s unique climate.

Climate Change Is Eroding the Foundations of Italy’s Global Brand By Jakob Cansler Sept. 6, 2023 | Italy’s global brand and soft power is based on its cuisine and tourism, both of which are threatened by climate change.

*****

Cameroonian President Paul Biya returned to the country after a 42-day absence that led to growing speculation about the 91-year-old’s health, prompting the government to outlaw any discussion of his condition. As Chris O. Ògúnmọ́dẹdé wrote last month, though, authorities are already having delicate but inescapable discussions about a post-Biya succession behind closed doors.

*****

Gunmen in India-controlled Kashmir killed at least seven people working on a strategic tunnel project, with police blaming militants fighting against New Delhi’s grip over the disputed region.

Violence in Kashmir had seemingly declined after 2019, when the Indian government stripped the region of its semi-autonomous rule, but recent months have seen a rise in militant attacks there. As Shweta Desai wrote last year, the apparent post-2019 calm had been enforced by an extraordinary level of state surveillance and intimidation, making it inherently unsustainable.

More from WPR

John Boyce on rollbacks of LGBTQ+ rights in the EU. James Bosworth on security and biodiversity in Latin America. Holly Rooper and Sagatom Saha on integrating trade and climate policy. Paul Poast on the goal of a nuclear weapons-free world.

Read all of our latest coverage here.

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