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"The West Bank is becoming ground zero."

Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analysis are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 17 October 2024, 2015 UTC.

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October 17, 2024

Hello, everyone. Today at WPR, we’re covering increasing violence in the West Bank and a dangerous shift in the politicization of natural disasters.

But first, here’s our take on today’s top story:

U.S. President Joe Biden listens during a bilateral meeting between Israeli and U.S. government officials, in Tel Aviv, Osrael, Oct. 18, 2023 (AP photo by Evan Vucci).

U.S.-Middle East: The U.S. military struck five underground Houthi weapons facilities in Yemen yesterday, an attack that included the use of B-2 warplanes and specially built bombs. The strikes come just days after the U.S. said it would send the advanced THAAD air defense system to Israel, along with around 100 military personnel to run it. (New York Times; Reuters)

Our Take: A year ago, the Iran-backed Houthis’ entry into the conflict between Israel and Hamas was a surprising development that immediately had a significant impact. The group’s attacks on merchant shipping off the coast of Yemen temporarily paralyzed traffic through the trade corridor, and although the U.S. military’s response since then has significantly reduced the impact on shipping, the Houthis have not submitted. The group continues to occasionally attack ships in the Red Sea and launch missiles toward Israel.

The fact that the U.S. targeted the Houthis in such an intense and dramatic faction—deploying a B-2 stealth bomber and specially made explosives—is a reminder that the group is still very much an actor in the expanded conflict. At the same time, it is also a reminder that the U.S. is as well.

In fact, the U.S. has been directly involved in this conflict from the beginning, not only with the punitive strikes against the Houthis but also in working with Israel to defend against Iranian missile and drone strikes. Now, amid reports that Israel has depleted its formidable anti-missile defenses, the deployment of the THAAD air defense system alongside U.S. military personnel underscores this participation in Israel’s wars against Iranian proxies—and Iran itself.

To be sure, current U.S. involvement is still far from the worst-case scenario—a regional conflagration that fully pulls the U.S. military into a high-intensity war—that U.S. President Joe Biden and his administration have worked so hard to avoid. But it is one step further down a slippery slope that may lead to that outcome. And in the meantime, it is a reversal of what Biden wanted to accomplish, namely winding down the U.S. military’s involvement in the Middle East’s conflicts.

Instead, the U.S. military is more actively involved in combat operations in the region than at any time since the end of the fight against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. And with the region and the world waiting apprehensively for Israel to retaliate against Iran in their latest tit-for-tat exchange of standoff strikes, the attack against the Houthis yesterday is evidence that Washington is not yet out of the woods in terms of getting drawn in deeper.

More than a year after Hamas’ unprecedented attacks against Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, Gaza remains locked in protracted war and deepening humanitarian catastrophe.

At the same time, the West Bank is witnessing a serious increase of Israeli-Palestinian violence. Even before Oct. 7, a Palestinian insurgency was growing in the West Bank amid an upsurge in popular support for armed resistance. This has been fueled by escalating Israeli settler attacks and ever-more destructive Israeli military action.

With a weakened Palestinian Authority unable to curb the violence, the crisis is only likely to get worse, Hugh Lovatt writes.

The West Bank Is Becoming Ground Zero in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict By Hugh Lovatt A weakened Palestinian Authority is unable to curb increasing violence in the West Bank. Without pressure on Israel, it will only get worse.

*****

Natural disasters and governments’ responses to them have always packed a considerable political punch. That has been especially true the world over when calamities occur in the days and months leading up to important elections, and even more when they strike geographic areas that receive high levels of media attention.

What is occurring now in the United States, however, is something altogether different. The tornadoes of disinformation unleashed upon U.S. voters in the wake of recent hurricanes represent a new, malignant twist on a more benign, legitimate political phenomenon, columnist Frida Ghitis writes.

Trump and the GOP Are Weaponizing the Politics of Natural Disasters By Frida Ghitis Governments’ responses to natural disasters have always been politicized. Trump’s use of Hurricanes Helene and Milton is different.

This week, China engaged in military exercises in the air and waters surrounding Taiwan that were characterized by some analysts as a dress rehearsal for a blockade of the autonomous island. The spike in tensions comes against the backdrop of warnings in Washington that Beijing is preparing to invade Taiwan in the coming decade.

This week’s question: Will China seek to seize Taiwan by force in the next five years?

Yes. No.

We’ll select one person from those who answer the question above to receive a free month of full access to WPR.

Yesterday, Italy banned citizens from seeking birth surrogates abroad, extending an existing domestic ban on the practice of surrogacy. Critics say the law is targeted at same-sex couples, who are already barred from domestic and international adoption under Italian law, leaving gay male couples in particular with effectively no route for starting a family.

Italian PM Giorgia Meloni has made the curbing of LGBTQ+ rights a cornerstone of her far-right domestic agenda, which has also included attacks on reproductive rights and press freedoms. And yet, as John Boyce writes, because Meloni has managed to maintain good relations with Brussels, the EU has turned a blind eye to Meloni’s extremism back at home.

The EU Is Turning a Blind Eye to Meloni’s Extremist Domestic Agenda By John Boyce June 25, 2024 | Italian PM Giorgia Meloni is playing nice with the EU, which is turning a blind eye to her far-right agenda at home.

*****

Record-low water levels in the Paraguay River, the result of a drought upstream, are fueling a conflict between fishers and rice farmers over water usage. Local fishers in the country argue that the water-intensive rice farms are exacerbating the problem.

Latin America as a whole is facing one of its longest, most severe droughts in decades, leading to widespread uncertainty around water availability. As Grant Burrier wrote last year, while water scarcity can be mitigated through better policy and governance—including by improving water systems and rationalizing water usage—most politicians across Latin America do not prioritize a vision for enhanced water management.

Latin America Is Running Out of Water By Grant Burrier Nov. 13, 2023 | Latin America is facing a severe water crisis that will only get worse if governments don’t act to mitigate it.

*****

Assimi Goita, the head of the military junta in Mali, promoted himself to the highest rank in the army yesterday, the latest sign that he has little desire to relinquish power. Since the military takeover in a 2021 “coup within a coup,” Mali’s transition back to civilian rule has stalled, and the junta has this year increasingly clamped down on political freedoms. Read more in this briefing by Chris O. Ògúnmọ́dẹdé from April.

*****

The EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, questioned the U.S. decision to give Israel one month to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza before halting arms deliveries to the country, saying earlier today that the delay would result in too many people being killed. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Berlin will continue to supply Israel with weapons.

The contrasting statements on the same day highlight the widening divisions within the EU over Israel and the war in Gaza. Read more in this recent briefing by Anchal Vohra.

More from WPR

Rushda Fathima Khan on the Congress party’s failure to protect India’s Muslims. Alexander Clarkson on the shifting balance of power in the EU. Mary Gallagher on China’s economic conundrum. Viktoria Ivanova on Bulgaria’s fraught media environment.

Read all of our latest coverage here.

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