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"Will Sinwar's death be a turning point."

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

 

October 18, 2024

	By David Leonhardt

Good morning. We’re covering the death of Hamas’s leader, as well as the presidential election, Ukraine and travel in Hanoi.

Yahya Sinwar David Dee Delgado/Reuters

Sinwar’s end

The killing of Yahya Sinwar — the chief architect of the Oct. 7 attack — is the most tangible victory that Israel has yet been able to claim in its more than yearlong war against Hamas. Almost as soon as the Oct. 7 attack happened, Israeli leaders vowed to hold Sinwar accountable. So long as he was still directing Hamas’s operations from the tunnels of Gaza, Israel could not credibly claim to have achieved its goals.

Now Sinwar is dead, killed Wednesday in a firefight with Israeli troops who unexpectedly encountered him in southern Gaza. The troops, backed by drones, came upon a small group of Hamas fighters and brought down part of a building where they had taken cover. The Israeli troops found Sinwar’s body in the rubble.

By The New York Times

But the larger significance of Sinwar’s death — for Israel, Hamas, Gaza and the Middle East — remains unclear. In today’s newsletter, I’ll explain both why his death could be a turning point and why it might not be. I will also walk you through The Times’s extensive coverage.

Reasons for a deal

In a span of three months, Israel has killed three top leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah, two Iran-backed militant groups that have been fighting Israel for decades. In July, a bomb placed in a government guesthouse in Tehran killed Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s political leader. Three weeks ago, Israeli planes bombed a Hezbollah office in Beirut, killing its longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah. “The optics is that of an edifice collapsing,” Hassan Hassan of New Lines Magazine wrote yesterday, referring to Iran’s network of groups known as the axis of resistance.

That apparent collapse offers Israel a chance to declare victory, especially against Hamas in Gaza, and negotiate peace terms. Many political leaders in other countries, including President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, hope for this outcome. “Now, after Mr. Sinwar’s killing, a route toward some kind of truce in Gaza seems slightly more navigable,” Patrick Kingsley, The Times’s Jerusalem bureau chief, wrote.

Patrick noted that a major sticking point had been Sinwar’s insistence on a permanent peace deal that would leave Hamas in power; Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, refused any agreement that let Hamas survive. With Sinwar gone, a deal could involve the release of the Israeli, American and other hostages held by Hamas in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails. The end of fighting could also alleviate the intense suffering of Palestinians in Gaza and allow for the beginning of reconstruction efforts, funded by Arab countries and overseen by Palestinian groups that are more moderate than Hamas.

Reasons for no deal

Yet it remains unclear whether either Netanyahu or Hamas’s surviving leadership is ready for a truce.

Hamas has survived the deaths of previous leaders and has emerged with a new generation willing to die in the service of trying to destroy Israel. (This Times article explains what we know about Hamas’s remaining leaders.) A basic tension remains: Israel is unwilling to accept a Gaza where Hamas retains power; Hamas’s leaders are unwilling to surrender.

“For the sake of their own physical survival, they may make more compromises than the man who initiated the whole war,” Ibrahim Dalalsha, director of the Horizon Center, a research group in the West Bank, told The Times. But, he added, “they won’t say: ‘Yes, we’ll do whatever you want, Mr. Netanyahu.’”

For Netanyahu, a peace deal also brings political risks. He has long opposed a Palestinian state, as have the far-right parties in his governing coalition. Both the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, among other countries, favor a two-state solution and have said any peace deal must include steps toward a Palestinian state. Agreeing to those steps could unravel Netanyahu’s coalition, either costing him his job or forcing him to make an alliance with more centrist parties.

“A lot of people seem hopeful that Netanyahu will use Sinwar’s killing as an opportunity to declare victory, negotiate a hostage deal and end the war,” Gregg Carlstrom, a Middle East correspondent for The Economist, wrote. “But to believe that you basically have to ignore everything Netanyahu has said and done over the past year.”

Perhaps the biggest question is whether Sinwar’s death is big enough of a development to change the political dynamics in both Israel and Gaza.

From Times Opinion

Thomas Friedman: “The death of Sinwar alone is not the sufficient condition to end this Gaza war and put Israelis and Palestinians on a pathway to a better future. Yes, Sinwar and Hamas always rejected a two-state solution and were committed to the violent destruction of the Jewish state. No one paid a bigger price for that than the Palestinians of Gaza. But while his death was necessary for a next step to be possible, it was never going to be everything.” Matthew Duss, Center for International Policy: “The Biden administration must press the Netanyahu government and remaining Hamas officials to end the war in Gaza, return hostages to their families, surge humanitarian aid into the territory and urgently take other steps to ensure that Gazans have adequate shelter, supplies and security as winter approaches.”

More on Sinwar’s death

A poster of Sinwar in Beirut, Lebanon. Chris McGrath/Getty Images

Israel spent months looking for Sinwar. In the end, a training unit on a routine patrol encountered him in southern Gaza. The Israeli military released drone footage that it said showed Sinwar sitting in a chair shortly before he was killed. Israeli officials used dental records and fingerprints to help identify his body, the Israeli police said. Biden congratulated Netanyahu and said Sinwar’s death could create the opportunity to “move on” to a cease-fire in Gaza. He said he was sending the secretary of state to discuss plans for securing Gaza. Netanyahu, in a video address, said that Israel would continue its military campaign against Hamas: “This is not the end of the war in Gaza. It is the beginning of the end.” For the families of hostages, the news brought satisfaction as well as concern for the fate of the captives. Sinwar, known for his brutality and his cunning, emerged from two decades in Israeli prison to rise to the helm of Hamas. Read his Times obituary.

THE LATEST NEWS

The Trump Campaign

Donald Trump Jordan Gale for The New York Times

In speeches, Donald Trump often veers off script and gives play-by-plays of his internal thoughts. Some of his advisers think his scattershot style is electorally risky. Trump, in a podcast interview, blamed Volodymyr Zelensky for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “He should never have let that war start,” Trump said. Elon Musk and a group of Silicon Valley billionaires have made it their mission to get Trump elected. Some Republican lawmakers are wary of Trump’s pledges not to tax tips, overtime pay or Social Security benefits. Mitch McConnell privately called Trump “stupid” and a “despicable human being” after the 2020 election, The A.P. reported. McConnell responded to the article by saying that JD Vance and Lindsey Graham had said worse things about Trump, “but we are all on the same team now.”

The Harris Campaign

Harris campaigned in Wisconsin with Mark Cuban, making her sixth visit to the state since entering the race. She accused Trump, who recently described Jan. 6 as “a day of love,” of gaslighting Americans. Democrats have, for years, avoided calling Trump a fascist. They appear to be losing their reluctance, Jonathan Weisman writes. Harris wants to build three million new housing units in four years. Economists disagree about whether her plan would vastly expand supply.

More on the Election

This year’s presidential race is so close that even a small polling error could misjudge the outcome.

An independent review of the Secret Service’s failures before the July assassination attempt against Trump recommended replacing the agency’s leaders with people from the private sector. Sam Brown, the Republican candidate for Senate in Nevada, is struggling to gain ground. He’s relatively new to the state and has never held elected office. Amazon, as part of its live programming push, will stream an Election Day newscast hosted by Brian Williams.

More on Politics

The Biden administration has forgiven federal student loan debt for more than one million public service workers. Pentagon officials have discussed whether giving military aid to Israel and Ukraine is hurting the military’s ability to respond to new conflicts.

International

President Biden and Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India. Doug Mills/The New York Times

U.S. prosecutors have charged a man they identified as an Indian intelligence officer with trying to orchestrate an assassination on U.S. soil from abroad. China’s economy, which has been marked by falling prices and weak consumer spending, continued to grow at a lackluster pace over the summer. Draft officers in Ukraine stationed themselves outside a concert for a popular band, looking for men trying to dodge military service. Some were detained.

Other Big Stories

Financial pressures and concerns about stability are straining OpenAI’s yearslong partnership with Microsoft. The Texas Supreme Court halted the execution of a man convicted of killing his 2-year-old daughter. The case has drawn scrutiny because of the role that shaken baby syndrome played in his conviction.

Opinions

Medications to treat addiction are rare. If Ozempic can really help addicts — as early studies indicate — policymakers should make the drug more affordable and accessible, Maia Szalavitz writes.

Here are columns by David Brooks on America’s political gridlock and Paul Krugman on Trump’s tariff proposals.

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MORNING READS

Simbarashe Cha/The New York Times

Good hair days: The diversity of hairstyles at fashion weeks rivals the range of clothes.

36 Hours in Hanoi: Drink in a movie-themed bar, visit a temple and take a street-food tour.

Food upgrade: Try these five lesser-known, expert-recommended grains.

Lives Lived: Mitzi Gaynor played the female lead in the movie version of the Broadway musical “South Pacific.” Gaynor also performed regularly in Las Vegas and on television specials with names like “Mitzi Zings Into Spring.” She died at 93.

SPORTS

David Fry Major League Baseball

M.L.B.: The Cleveland Guardians mounted an incredible comeback win over the New York Yankees in 10 innings. The game ended on a walk-off home run from David Fry.

Los Angeles Dodgers: In the National League, the Dodgers are one game away from the World Series after a 10-2 blowout victory over the Mets.

N.F.L.: The Denver Broncos defeated the New Orleans Saints, 33-10. Read takeaways.

ARTS AND IDEAS

T Magazine’s new Greats issue celebrates four talents who have transformed the culture. They are Florence Welch, a singer who has offered a mythic view of pop music for nearly two decades; Lorna Simpson, an multidisciplinary artist whose work has made marginalization a source of power; Jonathan Anderson, the creative director of the fashion house Loewe; and Theaster Gates, an archivist, ceramist and sculptor. Read their profiles here.

More on culture

Jilly Cooper at her home in England. Francesca Jones for The New York Times

Sex, horses and stately homes: Jilly Cooper has written raunchy novels for decades. Adapting her 1988 book “Rivals” for the streaming age meant tweaking some details. The late night hosts joked about Harris’s Fox interview and Trump’s Univision town hall. “Kamala and Trump went into ‘the lion’s den’ this week,” Desi Lydic said. “They only got Trump there by telling him it was the name of a strip club.”

THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …

Rachel Vanni for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Spencer Richards.

Make a hearty tagine, a staple family meal in many Moroccan homes.

Charge your electric vehicle at home.

Pick the best American cheese.

Take our news quiz.

GAMES

Here is today’s Spelling Bee. Yesterday’s pangram was apathetic, hepatic and pathetic.

And here are today’s Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands.

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. —David

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Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

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