CFR Daily Brief

"Moldova votes to stay on EU membership vote, facing Russian challenges."

Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analysis are those of the Council of Foreign Relations.  Accessed on 21 October 2024, 1329 UTC.

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

 

Daily News Brief October 21, 2024

Top of the Agenda Moldova Votes to Stay on EU Membership Path, Facing Russian Challenges Moldovans voted by a razor-thin margin yesterday to enshrine the goal of joining the European Union (EU) in their constitution, electoral data showed with more than 99 percent of votes counted. Pro-Western President Maia Sandu decried “unprecedented” attempts to meddle in the vote as results came in; spokespeople for EU and United States leadership have also said Russia was actively interfering in the vote, claims that Moscow denies. Moldovans also voted yesterday in the first round of a presidential election. It will go to a runoff on November 3 between Sandu, who won 42 percent of votes, and Russia-friendly former prosecutor Alexandr Stoianoglo, who won around 26 percent.  Moldova borders Ukraine, and it applied to join the EU after Russia’s invasion in 2022; Brussels agreed to start membership negotiations by that June. As the referendum approached, Moldovan authorities said last month that they uncovered a Russia-linked, $16-plus million vote-buying scheme as well as a plot to create civil unrest around the referendum and presidential vote. Russia also has around 1,500 troops stationed in Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria. (WaPo, AP, Sky)

Analysis “The tight result could potentially herald a new period of political instability and protests, with calls for recounts and allegations of fraud from both sides. This uncertainty—and potential instability—makes Moldova even more vulnerable to meddling from Russia, which still regards Moldova as its ‘near abroad’ and where it keeps hundreds of troops in the breakaway region of [Transnistria],” RFE/RL’s Andy Heil writes.  “In Moldova, the Kremlin is playing a long game. It seeks to divide Moldovan society along linguistic lines; to aggravate old ethnic fears and grievances; to infiltrate the Moldovan press; to buy off or sponsor local or parliamentary officials who, in turn, degrade trust in Chișinău; to discredit Sandu’s government; and, specifically, to force Moldova’s leaders to crack down harshly on Russian-funded proxies, thus opening themselves to accusations that they, in fact, are the people who seek to repress Moldovans and limit their freedoms,” retired Foreign Service Officer William H. Hill writes for Foreign Affairs.

Pacific Rim Indonesia’s Prabowo Expands Cabinet, Vows Nonaligned Foreign Policy New President Prabowo Subianto announced the country’s largest cabinet in decades, keeping on several top economic figures from the previous administration despite speculation he’d do otherwise. In his inaugural address, he pledged to not take sides in the U.S.-China rivalry and voiced support for Palestinian independence. (Nikkei, Bloomberg)   China: The central bank cut two benchmark interest rates today, following previous rate cuts last month that aim to tend to its struggling economy. The one-year and five-year loan prime rates cut today are at historic lows. (Nikkei, AFP) At this CFR event, the Treasury Department’s Jay C. Shambaugh discusses the U.S.-China economic relationship.

South and Central Asia Pakistan Boosts Legislature’s Power to Pick Top Judge A constitutional amendment became law today that empowers legislative leaders to appoint the top Supreme Court judge; previously such an appointment was made through a seniority-based system. Critics of the change, including the main opposition party, say it curtails judicial independence. (Dawn, NYT)  India: The government regulator for aviation security met with airline CEOs on Saturday about steps to confront a spate of hoax bomb threats that have grounded many flights in the past week. Indian skies are “absolutely safe,” the agency director said; the government is studying increased penalties for threat offenders. (ANI)

Middle East and North Africa WHO Certifies Egypt as Malaria Free The Egyptian government’s first efforts to interrupt malaria transmission began a century ago, the World Health Organization (WHO) said. It gives such certification when countries have proved they interrupted the transmission chain of malaria for three consecutive years. Egypt joins more than forty countries with this milestone. (BBC)   This In Brief by CFR’s Mariel Ferragamo looks at whether Africa is at a turning point for malaria.  Israel/Lebanon: Israel said it targeted Hezbollah-linked financial institutions in Lebanon over the weekend. On Saturday, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Washington would like to see Israel scale back some of its strikes on Beirut, as the number of civilian casualties was “far too high.” U.S. officials planned yesterday to hold a classified briefing on an intelligence leak about what appeared to be Israeli preparations to attack Iran; the documents were posted to Telegram. (NYT, Reuters)

Sub-Saharan Africa Killing of Mozambique Opposition Lawyer Sparks Global Calls for Investigation A lawyer for the Mozambique opposition figure who is contesting the results of the country’s election was gunned down early Saturday. The United States, Canada, Norway, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom condemned “any act of political violence” in a joint statement. An official vote count has yet to be released, but is preliminarily tipping toward the ruling Frelimo party, which has sat at the country’s helm for half a century. (Bloomberg, BBC)    Sudan: Sudan’s army reported the first defection of a Rapid Support Forces (RSF) commander in the current war, saying it followed the army’s military advances in the capital. (Sudan Tribune, Reuters) CFR’s Center for Preventive Action monitors the civil war in Sudan.

Europe Russia, UAE Hold Security and Economic Talks in Moscow United Arab Emirates (UAE) leader Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Russian President Vladimir Putin were due to discuss bilateral investments and trade, as well as the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East in bilateral talks today, according to the Kremlin. Trade between the countries has tripled over the last three years, Putin said. (Bloomberg)

Americas Cuba Suffers Nationwide Blackouts Cubans demonstrated against blackouts as the country’s power grid went offline four times within a forty-eight hour period over the weekend. It comes as Havana faces an economic crisis and after what experts called years of underinvestment. The blackouts coincided with the arrival of Hurricane Oscar, which made landfall as a Category 1 storm on Sunday. (Reuters, NYT, CNN) Brazil: President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva had to cancel a planned trip to Russia to attend this week’s BRICS summit following an accidental head injury at home. Doctors instructed him not to take long flights but that he could continue other activities. (AP)

U.S. Campaign 2024 Trump Threatens Tariffs on China If It Enters Taiwan Former President Donald Trump told the Wall Street Journal that if China were to “go into” Taiwan, he would “tax” China at 150 to 200 percent, referring to imposing tariffs. He added he “wouldn’t have to” use military force against a blockade on Taiwan because Chinese President Xi Jinping “respects” him. (WSJ) This episode of The President’s Inbox podcast explores the Taiwan challenge in the U.S. election.

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