"What's News: Israel launches raids into Lebanon ahead of possible ground incursion."
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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).
Good afternoon. Here’s what you should know today, Sept. 30:
| - China’s stock markets are red hot
- A wave of bogus shooting threats is jolting U.S. schools this year
- Americans are more reliant than ever on government aid
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By Zlati Meyer
| Thanks for reading What’s News! Look for the  to enjoy a free article on us—and share the link with a friend (or forward the whole newsletter!). |
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What to Watch
|  | The strikes in Yemen attacked Ras Issa and the port city of Hodeidah, the Israeli military said. The Houthi rebel group said Israel targeted fuel tanks and two power stations. PHOTO: ASSOCIATED PRESS |
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1. Israeli special forces have been carrying out small, targeted raids into southern Lebanon.
| They’re gathering intelligence and probing ahead of a possible broader ground incursion that could come as soon as this week, people familiar with the matter said. The raids ( read for free), which have included entering Hezbollah’s tunnels, have occurred recently and over the past months, as part of Israel's effort to degrade the militant group’s capabilities along the Israel-Lebanon border, the people said. The Biden administration expects an imminent Israeli invasion of Lebanon, U.S. officials said. |
| Hamas Leader Killed in Lebanon Was Also a U.N. Staffer (Read) Nasrallah’s Killing Leaves Hezbollah Diminished—With a Void at the Top (Read) |
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2. China’s major injection of stimulus last week ignited the country’s stock markets.
| Some $143 billion worth of stocks changed hands in 35 minutes of fevered trading today in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing—the shortest-ever span of time in which stock trading hit the one-trillion yuan mark in the country’s history. What impact Beijing’s laundry list of growth-friendly pledges, such as lower interest rates for existing mortgages, will have on the world’s second-largest economy remains to be seen. |
| Defense-Tech Startups Need a New Supplier: Anyone but China (Read) |
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3. Gov. Tim Walz and Sen. JD Vance are prepping for the biggest night of their career: tomorrow’s vice presidential debate.
| In practice sessions, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has played the Republican senator from Ohio, while Minnesota House Rep. Tom Emmer has stood in as the Democratic governor, according to people familiar with their prep. The lower-polling Vance might have it tougher because Donald Trump is widely viewed as losing the Sept. 10 debate with Kamala Harris. Walz is likely to focus on winning over white, working-class voters in swing states, while Vance might be forced to address his “childless cat ladies” comment and Trump’s unfounded claims of Haitian immigrants eating pets in Springfield, Ohio. |
| Coalition of the ‘Weird’ Mobilizes for Trump (Read) Trump Amps Up Rhetoric to Keep Immigration at Center of Election (Read) |
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4. AI was the stock market’s Next Big Thing in the first half of the year. Not so much in the third quarter.
| The rally that many investors feared had become too dependent on a handful of Big Tech stocks broadened to include sectors such as utilities, industrials and financials. Plus, value and small-cap stocks trounced growth and large-cap ones. Back in Techland, investors began questioning the huge amounts of money that some companies are spending on AI. |
| How Nvidia’s Monster Rally Broke Your Tech ETF (Read) DirecTV Agrees to Merge With Satellite Rival Dish (Read) Epic Games Sues Google and Samsung Over Alleged App-Store Scheme (Read) |
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5. Threats of shootings, bombings and other violence are upending the school year.
| They’re fueling worry among families and frantic responses from law enforcement and district administrators. Most of the threats—thousands, according to state and local estimates—have been hoaxes spread by teenagers on TikTok and Snapchat. Yet some have led to student arrests, canceled classes and football games, and drops in attendance. |
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Make sense of AI’s impact on business.
The Numbers
| 53% | The share of U.S. counties that drew at least a quarter of their income from government aid by 2022, bipartisan think tank Economic Innovation Group found. That’s up from less than 1% in 1970 and roughly 10% in 2000. Neither major-party presidential candidate has said much about reducing this growing piece of the national debt because many counties that rely heavily on government safety-net and social-program money are clustered in battleground states that will decide the election. |
| $3.8 billion | The low-end estimate of what a dockworkers strike on the East and Gulf coasts would cost the U.S. economy per day, according to JP Morgan equity analysts. Some of that would be recovered once normal operations resume. The International Longshoremen’s Association, with 45,000 members from Maine to Texas, is preparing to strike at midnight. The union wants a 77% increase in wages over six years to give workers a share of shipping companies’ skyhigh profits. |
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Quoted
“Overall, the economy is in solid shape; we intend to use our tools to keep it there.”
| —Fed Chair Jerome Powell, explaining that the central bank would continue to reduce interest rates from a two-decade high to help support hiring and preserve a growing economy. The Fed’s half-percentage-point cut earlier this month was its first rate reduction since 2020. U.S. stocks edged higher after Powell’s comments. |
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“The opportunity for people coming into this company is not the same as what it used to be.”
| —Tony Merwin, a 30-year Boeing veteran who prepared his three sons, now in their thirties, to work there, too. U.S. factory jobs used to mean a middle-class life for blue-collar workers like the Merwins, but Boeing wages haven’t kept up with the cost of living in the now pricy Pacific Northwest. The jetmaker’s largest union has been on strike since Sept. 13 when the two sides failed to agree on contractual pay raises. |
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Catch Up
| - New York City Mayor Eric Adams Seeks Dismissal of Bribery Charge (Read)
- FTC Warns of Oil-Patch Collusion. Energy Executives See Political Smear. (Read)
- The Big Shift From Salaries to Bonus-Based Pay (Read)
- Wealthy Carolina Town Worries There’s Danger Lurking Under Its Lawns (Read)
- The Jets Went All-In on Aaron Rodgers. It’s Looking Like a Bust. (Read)
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This Week in History
| | Roberta Karmel was sworn in as the SEC’s first female member. |
The New York securities lawyer made a name for herself by publicly disagreeing with other commissioners, which some considered heretical. Karmel argued that the SEC was overstepping its statutory authority and regulating through prosecution. The alumna of Radcliffe College and NYU’s law school resigned from the Washington, D.C.-based agency after 2.5 years; her husband wanted to leave the city. Karmel returned to private practice, became a law professor and was a NYSE director. She died in March at age 86. |
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Take a Break
| | Camden Riviere is the real tennis champion of the world. Why won’t anyone believe him? |
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Beyond the Newsroom
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Welcome to my geopolitics blog site. This is a Hawaii Island news site focusing on geopolitical news, analysis, information, and commentary. I will cite a variety of sources, ranging from all sides of the political spectrum.