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"The state of the war in Ukraine.  Plus, Mexico's judiciary."

Views expressed in this U.S., World, and Geopolitical News update are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 13 September 2024, 1159 UTC.

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

 

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September 13, 2024

Good morning. Today, two of my colleagues use maps to explain the state of the war in Ukraine. We’re also covering Mexico’s judiciary, a new ChatGPT and “The Golden Bachelorette.” —David Leonhardt

Source: Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project | Note: As of Sept. 8 | By The New York Times

Summer battles

	By Andrew E. Kramer and Josh Holder Andrew visited the fronts. Josh tracked troop movements and made the maps.

Not long ago, a Ukrainian officer at an artillery position on the eastern front shared a telling detail with The Times. His crew, sweaty and covered in dust, was firing a howitzer at a coal mine it had occupied until just days earlier. Now they were losing ground, and the Russians held the mine.

Not since the early months of the war have front lines shifted as swiftly as they have in the past several weeks. In northeastern Ukraine last month, the country’s military staged a surprise attack into Russia and quickly captured about 500 square miles. At the same time, Russian troops pressed ahead with their offensive toward the eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, advancing by more than a mile on some days. Yesterday, they were on the city’s doorstep.

In today’s newsletter, we’ll examine the new battlefield maps, and we’ll explain why each front is so volatile.

The eastern front

For more than a year, the lines often shifted only yards per day, despite fierce fighting. Troops were dug into well-fortified lines that led to comparisons to World War I. Then, in February, Russia broke through a dense maze of Ukrainian defenses in the city of Avdiivka, an industrial city that had been a Ukrainian stronghold since 2014.

Russia then had a path to the west through Ukraine’s fallback lines. The advances have since continued, sporadically. Russia ground through defensive positions in fields east of Pokrovsk, a city built around a crucial road and railroad junction, this summer.

Source: Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project | Note: As of Sept. 8 | By The New York Times

The artillery team near the coal mine held a position typical for Ukrainian forces. It was tucked into a grove of trees for camouflage. It overlooked a vast open farm field. The fields, the small villages and the several reservoirs on the Pokrovsk front provide few natural barriers against infantry attacks or sources of cover from Russian artillery and aerial bombs.

Since April, Russian troops passed five lines of Ukrainian fortifications. Only two now remain between the front line and the city, Pokrovsk’s military administrator told me.

Police cars drove on the city’s streets, blaring orders for residents to evacuate. Its fall would cut key supply lines for Ukraine into the Donbas region and ease Russia’s potential march westward.

The northern front

Source: Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project | Note: As of Sept. 8 | By The New York Times

Ukraine realized it was losing ground in the east. Rather than fight on ineffectively there, on Russia’s terms, Ukraine responded with a risky surprise attack in the north. Troops surged into Russia, hoping to draw forces away from the battle for Pokrovsk.

So far at least, it has not worked. Russia still presses ahead in eastern Ukraine. Yet Ukrainian troops have quickly opened a new front in the war. It captured about a hundred settlements near the border, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky. Ukraine’s military broke through thin border defenses manned mostly by young conscripts. Then soldiers advanced along two rivers, keeping the water as a protective barrier along one flank. Their gains have yet to be tested in a serious counterattack.

Some of the tactics are similar in both theaters. As Russia has sought to encircle Ukrainian troops in the Donbas, Ukraine has tried the same in Russia. It has blown up bridges over the Seym River to isolate Russian soldiers in a pocket between the water and the Ukrainian border. As Russia tried to build pontoon crossings over the river in recent weeks, Ukraine blew them up with long-range strikes.

It’s not a given that this period of quick changes will continue. Going into the fall, the questions are whether Ukraine can defend the Russian territory it captured and whether Russia’s troops can continue on the offensive without a pause to rearm and regroup. The answers will help determine both the future of the war and any potential peace deal.

More on the war

Near Moscow. Maxim Shemetov/Reuters

President Biden is poised to let Ukraine launch long-range Western weapons deep into Russia, as long as it doesn’t use U.S.-provided arms, officials said. The Toronto Film Festival canceled screenings of a documentary on Russian soldiers, which has been criticized as Kremlin propaganda.

THE LATEST NEWS

2024 Republican Campaign

Donald Trump said he wouldn’t debate Kamala Harris again. Harris, who raised $47 million after Tuesday’s debate, said “we owe it to the voters to have another debate.” A Georgia judge threw out three charges in the criminal case against Trump and his allies there, but kept most of it intact. The case remains frozen while the defendants seek to disqualify the prosecutor, who had a relationship with a subordinate. Trump, campaigning in Arizona, called for the elimination of taxes on overtime pay. Springfield, Ohio — where Trump falsely claims Haitian immigrants are eating pets — evacuated its city hall after bomb threats. The mayor has had enough. Trump met with New York firefighters to mark the Sept. 11 attacks. He brought along a conspiracy theorist who has called the attacks an “inside job.” An antisemitic ad campaign, funded by a group that appears tied to Republicans, has targeted parts of Michigan with many Muslim residents. The ads highlight the Jewish faith of Doug Emhoff, Harris’s husband.

2024 Democratic Campaign

When Taylor Swift endorsed Harris on Instagram, she also posted a link to Vote.gov, a registration site. In 24 hours, more than 400,000 people clicked on it. Do endorsements like Swift’s matter? The Upshot reviewed the evidence. Alberto Gonzales, a George W. Bush loyalist who served as attorney general, endorsed Harris. “Trump is someone who fails to act, time and time again, in accordance with the rule of law,” he wrote in Politico.

More on Politics

Alabama has mailed the first absentee ballots of the general election. North Carolina was supposed to mail ballots last week, but delayed them to remove Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s name. A judge overturned North Dakota’s near-total abortion ban, saying that the State Constitution protected the right to an abortion until fetal viability. Speaker Mike Johnson faces a Sept. 30 deadline to fund the government. He’s caught between a hard right that wants to cut spending and mainstream Republicans who fear a shutdown will endanger their re-election.

New York Investigations

Commissioner Edward Caban, the top N.Y.P.D. official. Dave Sanders for The New York Times

The New York City police commissioner is stepping down. Federal agents seized his cellphone last week as part of an investigation into his twin brother’s nightclub security business. The federal investigation is one of four that touch top city officials. Others involve the mayor’s dealings with Turkey, and the head of the school system. Here’s a guide.

International

In Mexico City.  Luis Antonio Rojas for The New York Times

Mexico’s states approved a constitutional amendment to replace thousands of appointed judges through a new system of elections. Pakistan seemed close to beating polio. Now the disease is spreading quickly. Israel conducted a raid in Syria that obliterated a Hezbollah missile production facility near the Lebanese border, according to American officials. The pope’s long tour of Asia signals his commitment to building a church with a less Western future.

Other Big Stories

Boeing workers are striking for the first time since 2008. It’s a union dispute. Firefighters have made progress in stopping the wildfires in California. OpenAI unveiled a new ChatGPT that can reason through math and science.

Opinions

The U.S. athletes Jayci Simon, left, and Miles Krajewski. Samantha Hurley/Associated Press

Samantha Hurley is a blind photojournalist who covered the Paralympics. See her photos.

“Hedonistic excess isn’t the cause of addiction.” Maia Szalavitz talks about the real reason people can’t put down their phones.

Here are columns by Paul Krugman on Trump’s position on Obamacare and David Brooks on Harris’s politics of joy.

Readers of The Morning: Don’t miss out on a full year of savings.

From in-depth coverage of Decision 2024 to unlimited news and analysis, Games, Cooking, The Athletic and more, subscribe now for only $1 a week for your first year.

MORNING READS

Elon Musk. Made Nagi/EPA, via Shutterstock

Elon Musk: The billionaire has barricaded himself behind a kind of mini-Secret Service in response to threats.

Wedding trends: First comes marriage. Then comes the rehearsal dinner.

Monkeys: Marmosets address different individuals with distinct calls, a study suggests. They’re the first nonhuman primates found to use something like names.

Lives Lived: Bob Weatherwax was born to train celebrity dogs. He grew up alongside Pal, the first collie to play Lassie, and went on to coach successors, as well as dogs for “Back to the Future” and other films. He died at 83.

SPORTS

Damar Hamlin tackles Tua Tagovailoa. Jasen Vinlove/Imagn Images, via Reuters

N.F.L.: The Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa suffered a concussion in a 31-10 loss to the Buffalo Bills.

W.N.B.A.: The Indiana Fever star Caitlin Clark liked Taylor Swift’s post endorsing Harris, but says she isn’t endorsing a presidential candidate herself.

ARTS AND IDEAS

Tia-Maria Smith, 60, isn’t interested in marriage.  Amanda Mustard for The New York Times

“The Golden Bachelorette” premieres next week, with a 61-year-old school administrator and grandmother going to exotic locations to meet two dozen suitors. But single straight women around that age say real-life dating isn’t like that.

Scammers often target older women on dating apps. One women said men have made her feel like dating a woman in her 60s is an act of generosity. “It’s exhausting,” Anne Vitiello, a 60-year-old single woman from New York, said. “It’s like panning for gold in a sewer.”

More on culture

In New York. Simbarashe Cha/The New York Times

New York’s streets had no shortage of great outfits during Fashion Week. See some looks. You may have seen a lot of videos of the V.M.A.s on social media this week. See the show’s seven most memorable moments. Late night hosts joked about Biden briefly wearing a MAGA cap.

THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …

Christopher Testani for The New York Times

Bake cauliflower Parmesan.

Take a solo cruise.

Travel with better luggage.

Slice your pizza with scissors.

Take our news quiz.

GAMES

Here is today’s Spelling Bee. Yesterday’s pangram was mothball.

And here are today’s Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands.

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow.

P.S. The Times is re-establishing its Vietnam bureau, which closed in 1975, and Damien Cave will lead it. Here’s our front page from April 30, 1975, covering the fall of Saigon.

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Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

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