WPR Daily Review

"Will the war in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas war expand?"

Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analysis are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 16 August 2024, 2016 UTC.

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

 

View this email in your browser. August 16, 2024 Hello, everyone. Today at WPR, we’re covering the likelihood that the war in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas war expand, as well as Ukraine’s rumored involvement in conflicts in Africa. But first, here’s our take on today’s top story: Venezuela: Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Colombian President Gustavo Petro each proposed yesterday that Venezuela hold a new presidential election with improved conditions. The two leaders have been leading the international charge to push Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, who fraudulently claimed victory in last month’s election, to negotiate a way out of the crisis. (Financial Times) Our Take: Since its candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, won the presidential election on July 28, Venezuela’s opposition has been pushing for the Maduro regime to negotiate a democratic transition of power. Their strategy relies on domestic pressure, in the form of mass protests, and international pressure forcing Maduro to engage in talks. The big obstacle, though, is that Maduro doesn’t seem like he’s being forced to do anything. He has the ability to repress protests—he’s shown as much in recent weeks—and has authoritarian allies that he can use to skirt international pressure. As a result, while the idea of holding another round of elections is obviously unjust and less ideal, Lula and Petro view it as more likely to actually lead to a transition of power, especially if the conditions are more free and fair than the vote last month. Specifically, Petro’s proposal—which includes incentives for Maduro, like amnesty and the lifting of sanctions on Venezuela—appears more likely to get the Maduro regime to the negotiating table. There are some benefits to this idea. Maduro’s strategy right now is to maintain repression long enough to create widespread disillusionment while waiting for international attention to move on. Holding another round of voting could be a way to keep domestic pressure on Maduro and maintain the international spotlight on his regime. But it’s worth noting that the Maduro regime agreed to a deal last year that similarly included incentives, although not amnesty, in exchange for a more free and fair vote ahead of last month’s election that Maduro later reneged on. And more importantly, both the regime and the opposition have rejected Lula and Petro’s proposal to hold new elections. Still, as WPR columnist James Bosworth noted in his own newsletter yesterday, there are no perfect solutions to the crisis in Venezuela. “No matter what is being proposed, there will be strong arguments against it and plenty of reasons it probably won’t work. However, there is one action that absolutely won’t make any progress: Sitting around arguing against someone else's wrong answer.” In other words, the best option may simply be the one that actually happens. If Lula and Petro can convince the Maduro regime and Venezuela’s opposition to hold another vote, that will at least be better for Venezuela than the alternative, which is allowing Maduro to keep holding on to power. For more: Read Mie Dahl’s in-depth report from Caracas on Maduro’s campaign of repression and the opposition’s strategy. Special Offer: 50% Off Your All-Access Subscription Unlimited access to WPR’s in-depth news and expert analysis of global affairs for less than $1.08/week. Subscribe Now Could the world be stumbling into catastrophe? There is widespread concern right now that we are about to find out, with both the war in Ukraine and the war in Gaza seeming poised to escalate into regional conflagrations. The fear is understandable, but it is worth noting that escalation has not happened yet, and despite the concerns that it is only a matter of time before the wars do widen, it is unlikely that they will. Columnist Paul Poast explains why: In Ukraine and Gaza, a Wider War Is Getting Less Likely, Not More Despite concern that the war in Ukraine are the Israel-Hamas war seem poised to expand, it is unlikely that they will. Read more. Ukraine has decided to open up a new front against Russia in Africa, at least according to rumors swirling about Ukrainian involvement in a deadly ambush of Russian contractors in northern Mali. The attack killed dozens of contractors and Malian soldiers and ripped a hole in the narrative that Russia’s actions in Africa have a stabilizing effect on the region. This isn’t the first time there has been innuendo about Ukrainian forces operating in Africa. And even if the evidence is sketchy, the growing narrative that Ukraine is assisting enemies of the Africa Corps, formerly known as the Wagner Group, could create serious complications for Russia’s fledgling missions on the continent, Marcel Plichta writes. Ukraine Could Cause a Major Headache for Russia in Africa Aiding Moscow’s enemies in Africa could cause disproportionate damage for Russia. It’s also a big gamble for Ukraine. Read more. The Taliban is marking the third anniversary of its return to power in Afghanistan this week, with human rights and economic conditions still worsening in the country. The international community continues to face a conundrum in its approach to the Taliban, as it wants to see reforms in Afghanistan, but doesn’t want to engage with the group due to its repressive rule. This week’s question: Should the international community recognize the Taliban as Afghanistan’s government? The results? 72% of respondents said “No, recognition should only come as a reward for instituting reforms in Afghanistan.” That’s compared to 28% who said “Yes, it’s the best way to advance a reform agenda in Afghanistan.” Sudan’s military said yesterday it would reopen a major border crossing with Chad that has been closed for six months, a significant obstacle for U.N. trucks carrying crucial aid into the country. The crossing at Adre is the main crossing connecting eastern Chad to the western region of Darfur, where a famine was declared earlier this month amid the country’s civil war. By nearly all measures, the civil war in Sudan is a massive crisis, with more than 10 million people displaced and more than half of the country’s 49 million people in need of aid, not to mention strong evidence that the warring parties have committed war crimes. And yet, despite the enormity of the crisis, the civil war in Sudan has received little to no international attention. As we wrote in the Daily Review in June, it would be perplexing if the reasons why weren’t so familiar. Failing to Address the War in Sudan Is a Choice June 11, 2024 | Despite the enormity of the crisis, the civil war in Sudan has received little to no international attention. The failure ultimately amounts to a choice. Read more. ***** Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Myanmar’s junta leader yesterday in Naypyitaw, where they reportedly held discussions about the military’s plan to hold an election that has already been widely considered a sham. Beijing has reportedly agreed to provide aid for conducting the vote as well as a census. The visit comes at a time when Myanmar’s military has been suffering battlefield defeats to ethnic militias amid the civil war that erupted following the country’s military takeover in 2021. The defeats have strained bilateral relations, although China remains one of the only countries to maintain working relations with the junta, as Frida Ghitis wrote about in 2022. China’s Support Is Emboldening Myanmar’s Military July 28, 2022 | For much of the international community, Myanmar’s military junta is an international pariah. The crucial exception is China. Read more. ***** Thailand’s parliament has elected Paetongtarn Shinawatra prime minister, thrusting the daughter of former PM Thaksin Shinawatra—who controversially remains the driving force behind the ruling Pheu Thai party—into the leadership position. The move comes just two days after the last PM was dismissed, likely as a warning from the country’s conservative establishment. Read more about that dismissal in Wednesday’s Daily Review. ***** Sweden said yesterday it has recorded the first case of the more infectious form of mpox outside of Africa. The news came just hours after the World Health Organization declared an outbreak of mpox in Africa to be a global health emergency. Read more about that in yesterday’s Daily Review. More from WPR Mie Hoejris Dahl on the Venezuelan opposition’s post-election strategy. Frida Ghitis on Ukraine’s incursion into Russia. Alexander Clarkson on potential conflict escalation in the Middle East. Constance Malleret on the backlash to abortion rights in Latin America. Read all of our latest coverage here. Copyright © 2024 World Politics Review LLC, All rights reserved. You are receiving this email because you are subscribed to our free daily newsletter. Our mailing address is: World Politics Review LLC 401 E. Jackson St, Ste 3300 Tampa, FL 33606 USA To be sure this email isn't filtered as spam, add newsletter@worldpoliticsreview.com to your address book or contacts list. Want to change how you receive these emails? You can update your preferences or opt out of all WPR emails (not recommended).