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"Who's the change candidate?  Plus, the war in Ukraine."

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August 21, 2024

Good morning. Today, my colleague Shane Goldmacher explains the battle over who is the candidate of change. We’re also covering the war in Ukraine, Gaza cease-fire talks and marijuana prices. —David Leonhardt

In Chicago.  Jamie Kelter Davis for The New York Times

Agents of change

	By Shane Goldmacher I cover politics.

It’s hard for the party that holds the White House to run as the party of change. But Kamala Harris and the Democrats are trying.

Running on change is often smart politics. Voters are perennially unhappy with the country’s trajectory, and the pandemic made it worse. According to Gallup, it has been two decades since a majority of Americans said they were satisfied with the direction of the nation. No wonder politicians cater to them with promises of new beginnings.

When Donald Trump was still facing President Biden — just a month ago — the former president could make a clearer case. Trump was out of power. He was the insurgent running against an incumbent. He promised to alter the country’s course.

Now Harris has jostled that dynamic after her party’s midsummer candidate switch. At its convention in Chicago this week, the Democratic Party has embraced the 59-year-old as the face of a new generation in a presidential contest that had previously featured two men seeking to set the record as the oldest person ever to serve. Inside the convention hall, chants of “We’re not going back” have rung out. And a fresh campaign slogan, “A New Way Forward,” is on banners and in speeches.

In today’s newsletter, I’ll look at that battle over who best represents change.

What polling shows

Embodying change has mattered for many years. Long before Barack Obama promised “change you can believe in,” Bill Clinton pitched “change versus more of the same.” Trump, of course, captured the change vote in 2016 when he promised a clean break from the Obama years.

Kamala Harris on the first day of the Democratic National Convention. Maddie McGarvey for The New York Times

If anything, the desire for change has grown in the past decade. When a New York Times/Siena College poll asked voters in May what they thought the country’s political and economic system required, the results were overwhelming: 69 percent said either major changes were needed or the system needed to be torn down entirely.

Only 24 percent of voters thought Biden would do either of those things. But recent polls in swing states suggest people view Harris differently. While far more voters still see Trump as more likely than Harris to make major changes — 80 percent to 46 percent — they are more divided on whether he would bring the kind of change that they want.

In fact, an identical share of voters (50 percent vs. 50 percent) said Harris would bring about the right kind of change compared with Trump.

The messaging wars

The fight over who most represents change is playing out on television, where campaigns spend much of their money. Future Forward, the leading Harris super PAC, created 200 potential ads for her, its leader, Chauncey McLean, said this week. The group tested all of those ads to determine which ones will be most effective.

So it is notable that several of the group’s ads already pitch Harris as a break with the past. “If you’ve had enough of this political era and you’re ready to turn the page, Kamala Harris is ready to lead us to the future,” concludes one recent spot. The ad on which the most money has been spent so far, according to AdImpact, is another one from Future Forward. It ends with a tagline on the screen: “Let the future begin.”

In Raleigh, N.C. Erin Schaff/The New York Times

“The Republicans were hoping that they were going to be able to paint her as more of the same,” explained McLean. But he said their surveys had shown that voters were open to Harris defining herself separately from Biden.

Chris LaCivita, one of Trump’s campaign managers, told me he didn’t think that Harris could seize the mantle of change from Trump. “They have no choice than to change the subject,” he said. “But changing the subject does not make you the agent of change.”

Trump’s ads have yoked Harris to the least popular parts of the Biden-Harris administration. One recent spot features Harris saying the word “Bidenomics” three times in 30 seconds. Another, from a Trump super PAC, talks about inflation and the “border invasion,” with a video of Biden and Harris hoisting their arms in the air together. “Kamala owns this failed record,” the narrator says.

The fight for change is just beginning. Harris allies say she has one obvious advantage that can’t be ignored: She looks like change. She’d be the first woman and the first person of South Asian descent to serve as president. Trump, of course, has brought a constant level of upheaval since his arrival on the political scene in 2015.

The question, after nine years, is whether keeping Democrats in power can itself represent a break from that.

More on the convention

Barack and Michelle Obama.  Maddie McGarvey for The New York Times

In back-to-back speeches, Michelle and Barack Obama reminded Democrats of a past era of hope and change, Peter Baker writes. “America, hope is making a comeback,” Michelle said. Their speeches cast Harris’s background as an embodiment of the American story, and Trump as its opposite. Michelle turned one of Trump’s statements against him, asking the crowd, “Who’s going to tell him that the job he’s currently seeking might just be one of those ‘Black jobs’?” Barack urged Democrats not to get complacent. “For all the incredible energy we’ve been able to generate over the last few weeks — for all the rallies and the memes — this will still be a tight race in a closely divided country.” Taunting Trump, Harris and Tim Walz drew a crowd of about 15,000 for a rally last night in the Milwaukee arena that hosted the Republican convention last month. Delegates formally nominated Harris and Walz in a high-energy, D.J.-led roll call that included Lil Jon, Spike Lee and Eva Longoria. Here’s a playlist of each state’s song. Doug Emhoff, Harris’s husband, called her a “joyful warrior” and poked fun at himself, recounting the rambling voice mail he left Harris before their first date. Several Republicans who oppose Trump spoke. Stephanie Grisham, the former Trump press secretary who quit a White House job on Jan. 6, endorsed Harris and said Trump “has no empathy, no morals and no fidelity to the truth.” Bernie Sanders’s speech criticized billionaires; the speaker who followed him, Gov. JB Pritzker of Illinois, is one. Read more takeaways from the convention’s second night. Biden’s speech on Monday started behind schedule and ended after midnight Eastern. The convention’s organizers blamed “raucous applause.” (From The Times’s archives: George McGovern’s acceptance speech at the 1972 convention didn’t start until almost 3 a.m.)

More on the campaign

Trump called Harris “pro-crime” and “anti-police” at a Michigan event. He also falsely claimed that “nobody was killed” when his supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6. Nicole Shanahan, Robert F. Kennedy’s running mate, said they were considering dropping out and endorsing Trump.

THE LATEST NEWS

More on Politics

President Biden  Eric Lee/The New York Times

Biden approved a classified plan to guard against nuclear threats from China, Russia and North Korea. Representative Mary Peltola, a Democrat, and two Republicans advanced to the ranked-choice general election for Alaska’s sole House seat, The A.P. reports. Montana voters will decide whether to amend the state Constitution to protect abortion rights, joining eight other states with similar measures on the November ballot. Matt Gaetz, the Florida Republican who helped unseat Kevin McCarthy as House speaker, easily beat a McCarthy-backed primary challenger.

Middle East

Israeli and Hamas officials have downplayed the idea that a cease-fire deal is imminent, saying mediators have yet to resolve major disputes. Israel said its forces had recovered the bodies of six Israeli hostages in southern Gaza. Five were previously known to have died. A senior Iranian military official said that retaliation against Israel for the killing of a Hamas leader in Tehran “could take a long time.”

War in Ukraine

In Kursk, Russia.  Nanna Heitmann for The New York Times

Russian forces, now recovered from the initial shock of Ukraine’s incursion, want to exploit the war’s expansion by depleting Ukraine’s forces and making gains on other fronts. To meet their need for troops in Ukraine, Russian authorities have crossed borders to find deserters and bolstered a campaign to punish draft dodgers, The Wall Street Journal reports.

Other Big Stories

Internet speeds have slowed to a crawl in Pakistan. Rights groups blamed the government, and said officials were testing a system to surveil and control the internet. A Filipino janitor survived the Maui wildfires, but they destroyed everything she had. She couldn’t survive the year after. Electrical failures have caused major delays on Amtrak rail lines in the Northeast this summer. Some of the problem equipment is a century old.

Opinions

Mpox has the potential to create a pandemic. Rich countries should share their vaccines, not hoard them, Lawrence Gostin, Sam Halabi and Alexandra Finch write.

Here are columns by Bret Stephens on illiberal student protests and Thomas Edsall on the risks of a second Trump term.

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MORNING READS

Señor Salme

Our red neighbor: A century ago this week, a cosmic coincidence gave Americans a case of Mars-mania.

Pot economics: Why does a jar of legal weed cost $60 in New York? A licensed dispensary explains its prices.

Hard work and fizzy drinks: Read what it takes to live past 110 years old.

Lives Lived: Ruth Johnson Colvin wasn’t a teacher, but she felt she had to do something to help residents of her town learn to read and write. She founded Literacy Volunteers of America, which now has 100,000 tutors in 42 states and 60 countries. She died at 107.

SPORTS

Tennis: Jannik Sinner, the men’s world No. 1, received an antidoping sanction after testing positive twice for a banned substance.

M.L.B.: The New York Mets, one night after an electric walk-off win, lost to the Baltimore Orioles with a comedy of defensive errors.

ARTS AND IDEAS

Photo Illustration by The New York Times

Disney’s stories are deeply embedded in American culture, and many parents consider a trip to one of the company’s parks to be a rite of passage. But they aren’t cheap: A week at Disney World now costs a family of four from $6,000 to $15,000, one analysis found, not including flights or souvenirs. Some families, then, are taking on debt to visit the theme parks.

More on culture

Jennifer Lopez and Ben Affleck last year.  Maggie Shannon for The New York Times

Jennifer Lopez filed for divorce from Ben Affleck after two years of marriage. The late night hosts discussed the Democratic convention: “Even Nancy Pelosi was chanting ‘We love Joe!’” Desi Lydic said. “It’s like the iceberg waving goodbye to the Titanic.”

THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …

Bryan Gardner for The New York Times

Sauté tomatoes slowly for a one-pot orzo inspired by the end of summer.

Control all your gear with one remote.

Consider an electric toothbrush.

GAMES

Here is today’s Spelling Bee. Yesterday’s pangram was phoenix.

And here are today’s Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands.

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow.

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Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

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