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"Sudan's unexpected civil war."

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

 

August 15, 2024

Good morning. Today, we’re covering a catastrophic civil war in Sudan — as well as Ukraine, the U.S. economy and extreme fan culture.

In Omdurman, Sudan. Ivor Prickett for The New York Times

A country in ruins

	By Declan Walsh I’m The Times’s chief Africa correspondent, based in Nairobi, Kenya.

After more than a year of civil war, the toll in Sudan is heartbreaking: thousands killed, millions scattered and cities besieged or destroyed across a vast nation three times as large as France. Much of the capital lies in rubble. This month, international officials declared that part of Sudan was in a famine. At least 100 people die of hunger every day.

And there are signs it could soon get much worse.

Recently, I spent three weeks in Sudan, traveling across a part of the world that few foreign reporters have reached. The scale and intensity of destruction were startling: A conflict that started as a power struggle between rival generals has metastasized into a far bigger and messier conflagration, threatening to spread chaos across an already fragile region.

By The New York Times

Despite all that, the conflict has received scant attention from world leaders or money for humanitarian aid. But its soaring human cost is making it ever harder to ignore. U.N. experts warn that Sudan is again spiraling into genocidal violence, as it did in the early 2000s. Samantha Power, the head of USAID, says it is “the single largest humanitarian crisis on the planet.”

One faint glimmer of hope lies in tentative peace talks, mediated by the United States, that started in Switzerland yesterday. Today’s newsletter explains the stakes: how an unexpected civil war is crushing Africa’s third-largest country — and what could stop the suffering.

Hope on the ropes

Only five years ago, Sudan was the source of euphoric hopes, when crowds of young people gathered to oust President Omar Hassan al-Bashir, the country’s dictator of three decades. For once, it seemed that a popular revolution in an Arab country might succeed.

Artists flourished. Politics opened up. Western governments offered to cancel billions of dollars in debt. Al-Bashir went to jail, convicted on corruption charges.

Those dreams were dashed after just two years, in 2021, when Sudan’s military and a powerful paramilitary group known as the Rapid Support Forces, unwilling to cede power to civilians, united to overthrow the government in a coup.

But the alliance was short-lived. The coup leaders — the army chief, Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the R.S.F. commander, Lt. Gen. Mohamed Hamdan — fell out over how to merge their forces. Then they went to war.

A surprise war

When the first shots rang out on the streets of the capital, Khartoum, in April 2023, many residents figured it wouldn’t last long. Sudan had experienced dozens of coups, more than any country in Africa, since it won independence in 1956. Most were short-lived and bloodless.

But the military found that the R.S.F., a force it had once helped to create, was now a formidable adversary with fighters more battle-hardened than its own forces. By December, the R.S.F. had seized most of Khartoum and the country’s breadbasket region, Jazeera State, as well as much of Darfur, the western region that suffered a genocide two decades earlier.

General Hamdan, the R.S.F. leader, claims to be fighting for Sudan’s marginalized and has sought to distance his force from its roots in the Janjaweed militias that terrorized Darfur in the 2000s. But his lofty speeches are at odds with the massacres, rape and ethnic violence that human rights groups say his fighters commit.

The Sudanese military is also guilty of war crimes, U.S. officials say, including indiscriminate bombing and the use of starvation as a weapon of war.

Sudanese refugees in Chad. Ivor Prickett for The New York Times

Rising stakes

Because Sudan is such a huge and populous country, the number of people who may starve is staggering.

According to the latest estimates, 26 million people — over half the population — are suffering crisis levels of hunger. On Aug. 1, two groups of global hunger experts declared famine at a camp in Darfur, the world’s first since 2020. Other parts of the country may soon follow, they say.

The conflict also brings political risk. It could spread to Sudan’s weak neighbors, like Chad or South Sudan. European leaders fear an influx of refugees. American intelligence worries that a lawless Sudan could become a terrorist haven.

Other foreign powers are already involved in the conflict, choosing sides and providing weapons that ravage civilian neighborhoods. The United Arab Emirates has armed the R.S.F. Iran supplied drones to the military. Russia, over the course of the war, has backed both sides.

The American-led peace talks that started in Geneva yesterday seem like a long shot — Sudan’s military didn’t even send a team of negotiators. But officials alarmed by the spiraling hunger crisis say there is little choice but to try. Millions of lives could be on the line.

For more

The war has transformed Khartoum, once a city of high rises and five-star hotels, into a battleground. Videos and satellite images show just how much destruction the war has brought. For The Times Magazine, Nicholas Casey embedded with a Sudanese militia that says it’s fighting to establish a Western-style democracy.

THE LATEST NEWS

2024 Election

Donald Trump Doug Mills/The New York Times

During a speech in North Carolina, Donald Trump directed a series of insults at Kamala Harris, claiming she had “the laugh of a crazy person.” Trump criticized the Affordable Care Act but said he would leave it in place “unless we can do something much better.” He also promised tariffs of up to 20 percent on U.S. trading partners.

Tim Walz, a hunter and a veteran, was a small-town gun guy. The Parkland school shooting helped turn him into a gun-control advocate. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. tried to meet with Harris to discuss endorsing her in exchange for a cabinet post. Jesse Ventura, the former Minnesota governor and professional wrestler, endorsed Harris. Hulk Hogan, a onetime rival in the ring, has endorsed Trump. Walz met his wife, Gwen, when they taught at the same Nebraska high school. Friends describe her as coolheaded and competent.

More on Politics

Nancy Pelosi helped push President Biden out of the 2024 race. It’s chilled their five-decade friendship. Speaking to online content creators at the White House, Biden joked that he was “looking for a job.”

U.S. Economy

Karl Russell

Last month, inflation in the U.S. dropped below 3 percent a year for the first time since 2021, putting the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates in September. Many prices fell from June to July, including for cars, clothes and plane tickets. Car insurance and rent got more expensive. Asked by a reporter whether the U.S. had “beat” inflation, Biden said yes: “My policies are working.”

Israel-Hamas War

Senior U.S. officials said Israel had achieved all that it can militarily in Gaza and that continued bombings would only increase risks to civilians. The Times spent weeks with freed Israeli hostages, photographing them as they try to rebuild their lives. See the images. Columbia University’s president quit. She’s the third Ivy League president to resign after criticism over the handling of Gaza protests on campus.

War in Ukraine

Russian medics at a field hospital in the Kursk region.  Anatoliy Zhdanov/Kommersant Photo, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Ukraine’s military advanced even deeper into Russian territory. Russia withdrew some troops from Ukraine to combat the incursion. More than 130,000 Russians have fled or been evacuated. It’s a new phase of uncertainty for a country that had largely adapted to the war. Germany issued an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian man it suspects of helping sabotage the Nord Stream pipeline in 2022.

Other Big Stories

In Tehama County, Calif. Noah Berger/Associated Press

Over the past decade, some counties in Northern California have seen half their land burn. Hurricane Ernesto cut power for hundreds of thousands of people in Puerto Rico. The World Health Organization declared a global emergency over the spread of mpox in Africa. The disease, formerly called monkeypox, has killed more than 500 people in the Democratic Republic of Congo this year. A New Zealand charity accidentally gave away hundreds of chunks of meth. They had been disguised as candies. Even as Trump distances himself from abortion bans, conservative Christians aim to restrict abortion from conception and limit access to I.V.F. with or without him.

Opinions

Ukraine’s incursion into Russia is a serious risk, but also a real opportunity to expose Russia’s vulnerabilities, David French writes.

Saving Caribbean coral reefs may require freezing their eggs and sperm, Carly Kenkel argues.

Here are columns by Charles Blow on Trump’s sexism and Pamela Paul on the end of summer.

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MORNING READS

In Copenhagen. Simbarashe Cha/The New York Times

Scandinavian style: At Copenhagen Fashion Week, outfits on and off the runway matched the host country’s reputation as one of the happiest places in the world.

Homesteaders: They’re living off the grid and posting about it online.

Old Timer: The survival of the world’s oldest known humpback whale is a mystery.

Youth: Growing up is hard. Global trends like climate change and job insecurity seem to be making it harder.

Lives Lived: Wally Amos used his background as a talent agent, his aunt’s recipe and a winning personality to build the Famous Amos cookie brand. He died at 88.

SPORTS

M.L.B.: The New York Yankees’ Aaron Judge hit his 300th career home run in a win over the Chicago White Sox. He’s the fastest player to the milestone in the league’s history.

Gymnastics: The court presiding over Jordan Chiles’s bronze medal case blamed gymnastics’ global governing body for problems at the Olympic floor exercise final.

N.F.L.: The New England Patriots traded the veteran pass rusher Matthew Judon to the Atlanta Falcons in exchange for a third-round pick.

ARTS AND IDEAS

Ma Long, captain of the Chinese men’s table tennis team. VCG, via Reuters

After an impressive run at the Paris Olympics, Chinese athletes are finding a darker side of that success: Extreme fans have mobbed them at airports and staked out their homes. Their experience is not uncommon in China, Vivian Wang writes, where intense fan culture often leads people to stalk their idols and sell their personal information. Read more about the phenomenon.

More on culture

The eighth piece in Banksy’s animal series. Adrian Dennis/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

The street artist Banksy has unveiled animal artworks around London for nine straight days, sending fans on a citywide scavenger hunt. On late night, Jimmy Fallon and Stephen Colbert both discussed JD Vance.

THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …

Christopher Testani for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews.

Shuck corn for this basic chowder.

Avoid these debunked health trends.

Sip a nonalcoholic wine that’s actually good.

Convert to compression socks.

GAMES

Here is today’s Spelling Bee. Yesterday’s pangram was motivator.

And here are today’s Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands.

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow.

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