Semafor Flagship-Asia Morning Edition

 "Harris gain momentum, Gaza cease fire push, Belarus deploys troops."

Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analysis are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 18 August 2024, 2335 UTC.

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

	12:06 PM (1 hour ago)
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Kabul  Kuala Lumpur  Mumbai August 19, 2024 Read on the web Flagship Asia Morning Edition Sign up for our free newsletters→   The World Today Harris gains momentum Gaza ceasefire push Afghan mining fears Belarus deploys troops X out of Brazil… …While EU eyes bot ‘Orangutan diplomacy’ Asian scientists probe India’s ailing cinemas French film great dies A rock star’s possessions are up for auction and one good text with the mother of James Foley, a US journalist killed by the Taliban. ↓ 1 Harris narrowly leads Trump in poll Kevin Mohatt/Reuters Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump 49% to 45% in a new poll released days before the Democratic National Convention begins this week. The Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll shows how the party’s fortunes have changed since President Joe Biden suspended his re-election campaign and Harris took over. She and her running mate Tim Walz could now use the convention to both define themselves and boost their momentum. “The candidate who sets the narrative usually wins the contest,” one Democratic pollster wrote in The Economist. But with big names like the Obamas and Clintons also attending the convention, organizers need to be sure to elevate Harris and not let her be overshadowed: “There’s too much to lose,” the Vice President’s former communications director told Semafor. For more DNC coverage, sign up for Semafor’s Principals newsletter.  → ↓ 2 Blinken in Israel to push ceasefire Kevin Mohatt/Reuters US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is heading to Israel this week to push for a ceasefire in Gaza. The visit comes after the White House proposed a new “bridging” plan Friday to bring Hamas and Israel closer to a deal — talks are set to resume this week. At stake for the Biden administration is ending Gaza’s humanitarian crisis, but also averting a broader war with Iran, which has hinted it will delay any attack on Israel while the talks continue. Preceding Blinken’s visit were his French and British counterparts. In a joint article Sunday, the pair warned of a cycle of violence. “One miscalculation, and the situation risks spiralling into an even deeper and more intractable conflict.” ↓ 3 Chinese copper mine sparks concerns A new Afghan copper mine contracted by the Taliban to a Chinese firm may present an ecological and archeological disaster, experts warned. The lack of technical expertise and international monitoring in Afghanistan — most world governments don’t recognize the Taliban — means the mine, which broke ground last month, could contaminate groundwater and destroy historically significant sites, experts told Nikkei Asia. Afghanistan’s vast mineral reserves are estimated to be worth $1 trillion, “more than enough to prop up the country’s fragile government,” The Washington Post reported, and Chinese companies have taken an increasingly aggressive position to “further tighten China’s grasp on much of the global supply chain for EV minerals.” ↓ 4 ‘Orangutan diplomacy’ launches Malaysia launched its controversial “orangutan diplomacy” program to bolster its palm oil trade despite the threat it poses to the animals. Countries that import the oil can “adopt” orangutans under the initiative, which had previously proposed sending the apes abroad. While overseas sanctuary conditions have improved in recent years, some of the best-funded are supported by the palm oil industry, and the idea was met with staunch criticism by animal welfare bodies. Malaysia and other Southeast Asian countries have tried to clean up palm oil’s reputation after the European Union banned products linked to deforestation in 2023. The industry, which employs a million people in Malaysia alone, is an economic lynchpin for the region, generating more than $39 billion per year in global GDP. ↓ 5 Belarus deploys troops to border Alexander Kazakov/Reuters Belarus has deployed about a third of its armed forces to its border, citing Ukraine’s ongoing incursion into Russia. Kyiv controls more than 1,100 square kilometers in Russia’s Kursk region and has captured some 150 Russian prisoners of war, Ukrainian officials said. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is a long-time ally of Russia’s Vladimir Putin, but analysts should be “quizzical” of Belarus’ claim it is willing to escalate on Ukraine’s borders given that Minsk “has not expressed firm solidarity with Russia over the Kursk incursion,” a security expert argued in a post on X. ↓ 6 X hits back at Brazil judge Jorge Silva/Reuters Elon Musk’s X will cease operations in Brazil over a fight with one of the country’s Supreme Court justices. The social media platform will continue to be available for Brazilians to use, however. The decision comes after Justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered a probe in April into Musk on various allegations, including obstruction of justice and sharing fake news. Musk, in turn, had criticized the judge for ordering X to block certain accounts under investigation, many of which appeared linked to former Brazilian president Jair Bolsanaro — a move Musk described as “censorship.” The fight, The Washington Post wrote, is seen by some as “the latest test in the global debate of free speech vs. fake news.” ↓ 7 xAI bot under EU scrutiny David Swanson/Reuters A new text-to-image generator from Elon Musk’s xAI could escalate the fraught relationship between the tech billionaire, X, and European regulators. The tool seems to have few guardrails, with users sharing a variety of fake and misleading images, including false depictions of well-known US politicians. The European Commission said it is monitoring the bot to ensure it complies with strict new rules aimed at curbing the spread of disinformation and other harmful content. Meanwhile, the bloc is investigating X over its content moderation practices, and its internal market commissioner had a tense exchange with Musk last week after he warned the billionaire not to violate the EU’s misinformation laws prior to Musk’s chat with Donald Trump. ↓ 8 NIH concedes China probe harms National Institutes of Health Director Monica Bertagnolli. Flickr A top US health official acknowledged that a government probe into Chinese spying may have unintentionally harmed Asian American and Asian immigrant researchers in the US. In a statement released Thursday, National Institutes of Health director Monica Bertagnolli said that actions taken under the auspices of the Department of Justice’s China initiative to curb espionage, had unintentionally created “a difficult climate” for researchers with ties to Asia. While the DOJ’s initiative ended in 2022, the NIH has continued to press US institutions to investigate certain researchers, Science reported. The acknowledgement comes after scientists and advocacy organizations criticized the NIH for seemingly targeting Asian researchers unfairly and pressuring institutions that depend on NIH funding.  ↓ 9 Indian cinemas are faltering Punit Paranjp/Getty Images India’s small, independent cinemas — once the bedrock of the country’s vibrant film industry — are shutting down at alarming rates. There are around 9,000 single-screen movie theaters in India — at least 10% of which are non-operational — compared to more than 10,000 a decade ago, according to the South China Morning Post. Industry experts blamed the decline on the rise of streaming services. Larger firms aren’t immune: India’s biggest cinema chain recently posted a $21.4 million loss — more than double the previous year’s — and said it would close 70 theaters this year. “It’s going to be a tough time for the big screen” unless Bollywood can match Hollywood’s pace of releasing one blockbuster a month to keep cinemas afloat, one film critic said. ↓ 10 French film great Delon dies Stephane Mahe/Reuters French film actor Alain Delon has died at 88. A César film award winner, Delon was perhaps best known for playing antiheroes, and for collaborating with celebrated French New Wave auteurs Jean-Luc Godard and Jean-Pierre Melville. In tribute, French President Emmauel Macron described Delon in a post on Sunday as a “French monument.” Delon was also known for his looks, and in his The New York Times’ obituary, the outlet cited their critic’s contemporaneous review of “Le Samouraï,” one of Delon’s most famous films, in which they described him as a “beautiful misfit.” Also on Sunday, his frequent co-star in times past, Brigitte Bardot, described him as “the best of France’s ‘prestige cinema,’” and “an ambassador of elegance.” ↓ Flagging August 19: US President Joe Biden is set to open the Democratic National Convention with a keynote speech. New Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is expected to give her first address to parliament. Japanese and Indian foreign and defense ministers meet in New Delhi for bilateral talks. ↓ One Good Text James Foley, a US freelance journalist, was beheaded in Syria by the Islamic State on Aug. 19, 2014. Diane, his mother, is the founder and president of the James W. Foley Legacy Foundation. ↓ Curio Bonhams A selection of personal items belonging to rock musician Tom Petty will go on auction starting Aug. 29. The former Mudcrutch frontman passed away in 2017, leaving behind an “eclectic collection” of Spanish and Italian décor, Persian rugs, and Himalayan sculptures that “reflects his wide-ranging musical inspirations and influences,” Artnet News wrote. Petty’s Yamaha grand piano is expected to sell for $7,000, according to auctioneer Bonhams, while a recording console is estimated at up to $700, and a writing desk — engraved with his initials — at $300. The most expensive item is his 1965 Ford Mustang, at a $25-35,000 asking price, which is reportedly in excellent condition. ↓ Hot on Semafor The partisan fight over “weird” is becoming a proxy war for LGBTQ issues. The 2025 tax war starts early as Harris and Trump vie over child credit. To tear down Biden’s climate legacy, Vance needs to go through Ohio’s mayors. 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