"Reason can't explain the right's populism rise."
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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).
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July 18, 2024 |
Hello, everyone. Today at WPR, we’re covering the rise of far-right populism in Western democracies and the semiconductor war between the U.S. and China. |
But first, here’s our take on today’s top story: |
European Union: Ursula von der Leyen has been reelected by the European Parliament as president of the European Commission, the leader of the EU’s executive branch, for another 5-year term. Von der Leyen enjoyed the support of the body’s center-right, centrist, center-left and Green blocs, with the various far-right coalitions voting against her. (AP) |
Our Take: Since taking office in 2019, von der Leyen has had no shortage of critics, many of whom point to her leadership style, which centralizes decision-making and can tend toward micromanagement. Others argue she has at times overstepped her position, particularly by advocating for policies—like aligning with the U.S. on China—that reflect her personal preference rather than that of the EU’s member states. |
But over the course of her first term, which has coincided with some of the most momentous crises the EU has faced, von der Leyen has also proven herself to be an effective leader. |
Less than a year after taking office, she corralled and guided the bloc’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, in particular by organizing the EU’s collective purchases of vaccines and harmonizing travel restrictions and subsequently “vaccine passports” to ensure that internal freedom of movement could be maintained. Then, just as the pandemic response was beginning to wind down, Russia invaded Ukraine. Here, too, von der Leyen played a crucial role in marshaling the EU’s response to the war, overcoming obstacles like Hungarian PM Viktor Orban’s attempts to dilute the bloc’s sanctions against Russia and block aid to Ukraine. |
Now, von der Leyen will start her second term amid a shifting European political landscape characterized by a resurgent far-right movement. Of course, the success of the far right in recent European Parliament elections did not prevent her from securing a second term. In fact, she won more comfortably in the parliamentary vote this time around than before, without having to make any concessions to the far right on appointments to the other top EU roles. |
Still, she will have to contend with the far right’s growing influence in EU decision-making, and in European politics more broadly. And that’s just one of many challenges von der Leyen will face in her second term, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, the upcoming U.S. presidential election and the bloc’s heightened trade tensions with China. |
But the EU will also confront these challenges as a far more empowered entity than it was when von der Leyen first took office, largely because of her leadership and in spite of her flaws. During her first press conference as president of the European Commission back in 2019, von der Leyen declared her intention to lead “a geopolitical commission.” She has certainly lived up to that promise. |
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France’s recent snap parliamentary elections featured a paradox that was hard to make sense of. On one hand, popular disaffection with President Emmanuel Macron dominated the elections. On the other hand, Macron’s record on a range of economic indicators has been pretty good. |
It would be easy to chalk that up to Macron’s governing style, but the list of Western democracies experiencing popular and populist backlashes to establishment parties does not end there, despite relatively solid economic fundamentals in many of these countries. |
This raises the questions of why this phenomenon is so widespread, and why now, when by the conventional indicators things just aren’t so bad. |
WPR editor-in-chief Judah Grunstein explores what could be behind this dynamic: |
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America’s renewed embrace of industrial policy is clashing with China’s all-in push for semiconductor self-sufficiency. Who outmaneuvers whom in this high-stakes battle for tech supremacy could shape the future of the two rivals’ strategic competition for global influence. |
Recognizing the stakes, both the U.S. and China are investing heavily in semiconductor capabilities, albeit using very different approaches, Lizzi Lee writes. |
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Although the attempted assassination of Donald Trump and the Republican National Convention have diverted attention, U.S. President Joe Biden continues to face pressure to step down as the Democratic Party’s candidate in November’s presidential election against Trump. |
This week’s question: Should Biden drop out of the race? |
We’ll select one person from those who answer the question above to receive a free month of full access to WPR. |
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The Third Plenum of the Central Committee, a major policymaking meeting of China’s Communist Party, wrapped up today. A statement released at its conclusion suggested that the major political and economic reforms normally associated with third plenums won’t be forthcoming. |
Rather, President Xi Jinping appears to be doubling down on his current plan to get China out of its economic struggles, specifically by expanding manufacturing in key sectors and trying to shore up confidence among investors. But as Mary Gallagher wrote earlier this year, further delay in implementing economic reforms is likely to reinforce fears that China’s leader is either unable or unwilling to right the country’s economic ship. |
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The Suez Canal’s annual revenue dropped by almost a quarter in its latest financial year as some shipping companies switched to alternate routes to avoid Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Houthi rebels have been attacking merchant shipping since the war in Gaza began, in solidarity with Palestinians. |
The attacks have diminished prospects for shipping in the Mediterranean Sea region, which relies on the Suez Canal for maritime traffic. But as Miquel Vila Moreno wrote in January, other developments, particularly the growing geopolitical risks reshaping trade with China, have some potential to help Mediterranean economies. |
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South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will open a new parliamentary term today with a speech in which he will lay out the priorities for his new coalition government. As Chris O. Ògúnmọ́dẹdé wrote last month, Ramaphosa’s long-dominant ANC now leads a coalition with intractable differences that will make addressing South Africa’s deep-rooted challenges very difficult. |
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An Italian journalist has been ordered to pay thousands of euros in damages to PM Giorgia Meloni for making fun of her height on social media. The court order comes amid a surge in lawsuits brought against journalists in Italy, which prompted Reporters Without Borders to downgrade the country in its annual press freedom index. |
The trend is just one of many illiberal turns seen in Italy under Meloni. But as John Boyce wrote last month, the EU continues to turn a blind eye to them. |
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Welcome to my geopolitics blog site. This is a Hawaii Island news site focusing on geopolitical news, analysis, information, and commentary. I will cite a variety of sources, ranging from all sides of the political spectrum.