"A remarkable comeback, President Biden, Israeli anti-government protests."

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

July 8, 2024

Good morning. Today, my colleague Jim Tankersley is writing about some good news for the U.S. economy. We’re also covering President Biden, Israeli anti-government protests and Wimbledon. —David Leonhardt

Downtown Scranton, Pa., in September 2019. Bryan Anselm for The New York Times

Comeback story

By Jim Tankersley

I cover economic policy at the White House.

America’s so-called “left behind” counties — the once-great manufacturing centers and other distressed places that struggled mightily at the start of this century — have staged a remarkable comeback. In the last three years, they added jobs and new businesses at their fastest pace since Bill Clinton was president.

The turnaround has shocked experts. “This is the kind of thing that we couldn’t have even dreamed about five or six years ago,” said John Lettieri, the president of the Economic Innovation Group, a think tank that studies economic distress in the U.S. His group is releasing a report today that details the recovery of left-behind counties.

Those counties span the nation but are largely concentrated in the Southeast and Midwest. In today’s newsletter, I’ll explain how they defied recent trends — including a particularly grim stretch under Donald Trump — to rebound so strongly from the pandemic recession. I’ll also show the one indicator that helps explain why voters there might not reward President Biden for the good news that has happened on his watch.

Out of the recession

The last two decades were economically cruel for the 1,000 or so left-behind counties in the U.S. — places like Bay County, Mich.; Dyer County, Tenn.; and Lackawanna County, Pa., home to Scranton, Biden’s birthplace. These counties added jobs and people far more slowly than the nation as a whole. Some lost factories to foreign competitors like China. Many lost residents, including educated young workers, as economic activity concentrated in big cities like New York and San Francisco.

In Dyersburg, Tenn. Whitten Sabbatini for The New York Times

As a candidate in 2016, Trump promised to revitalize those areas. In his first three years in office, before the pandemic hit, the national economy was strong. Unemployment was low. Wages were rising. But left-behind counties saw few of those benefits.

In 2018, a colleague and I noted that left-behind counties that voted for Trump had not seen any net job gains the previous year. The new Economic Innovation Group analysis shows that, in terms of job growth, left-behind counties experienced three of their four worst years since the Great Recession on Trump’s watch.

The pandemic recession hit those counties harder than the rest of the country, just as the Great Recession did. But their recovery has been much stronger this time. Left-behind counties added jobs five times faster in the first three years of the Biden administration than they did in the first three years of the Trump administration. The flow of residents leaving them for better opportunities slowed.

Perhaps most strikingly, they have shared in a new-business boom that has swept the country since the pandemic. That didn’t happen after the Great Recession. From 2009 to 2016, for example, Bay County, Mich., lost 8 percent of its business establishments. Since 2020, it has gained 12 percent.

In Bay City, Mich., in March 2020. Alyssa Schukar for The New York Times

The political fallout

Researchers say it’s too soon to know exactly what’s changed, but there are theories. The pandemic disrupted some long-running patterns of where Americans live and work; some people appear to have fled cities like New York for remote jobs — or for the chance to start a new company — in less expensive areas.

Under both Trump and Biden, the government lavished Americans with pandemic assistance, like direct checks for lower-income and middle-class workers and forgivable loans for business owners. Many people saved that money, and they may have used it to start businesses and create jobs in left-behind counties.

Whatever the explanation, though, Biden probably should not expect voters in those areas to reward him electorally. Many left-behind counties are solidly Republican, or have moved to the right since Trump first ran. And for all their job and business gains, left-behind counties were hurt by high inflation in the early Biden years. In 2021 and 2022, the typical household income in those counties fell, after adjusting for rising prices. Those price increases have left voters unhappy with Biden on the economy, no matter where they live.

THE LATEST NEWS

Politics

President Biden at a church service in Philadelphia. Tom Brenner for The New York Times

A half-dozen top House Democrats told colleagues in a private call that it was time for President Biden to end his campaign, and discussed how to use their collective influence to convince him.
Biden is starting a crucial week. He has a NATO summit in Washington and his team has promised that he will hold a solo news conference, his first in Washington since November 2022.

He spoke briefly at a church in Philadelphia yesterday, reading from prepared remarks. Some allies called on him to do more: Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut said he should “show the country he is still the old Joe Biden.”
Biden’s campaign strategy was to raise questions about Donald Trump’s ability to be president. That has boomeranged, Reid Epstein writes.
The president’s aides face scrutiny about whether they shielded him from displaying signs of aging, The Washington Post reports.

French Election

People standing atop a monument, as people cheer below. Small plumes of pink smoke are wafting into the sky.

Supporters of the left-wing alliance. Dmitry Kostyukov for The New York Times

Left-wing candidates surged in the second round of France’s national election, upending expectations that the right-wing National Rally would win control of the government.
Without a clear majority, though, the country faces a political deadlock.

France’s left wing united to keep the far right from power. Its strategy appeared to work.
It’s not yet clear who will be the next prime minister. Read more takeaways.

More International News

Israelis held nationwide anti-government protests, calling for a cease-fire and the return of hostages.
In Nepal, flooding and landslides killed at least 15 people. Officials warned of further heavy rains and said the death toll could rise.
In Sri Lanka, climate change and contaminated water have combined to create an epidemic of kidney disease in young men.
Rising heat and profit seekers are making the hajj more dangerous. An industry profits from unregistered pilgrims.
In Japan, the yen is plunging. So is the defense budget.

Business

Paramount agreed to merge with another entertainment company, Skydance, a deal that would usher in a new era for CBS, Nickelodeon and several major film franchises.
Boeing will plead guilty to a felony charge over two fatal crashes of 737 Max jets.

MORNING READS

Jack Teich in the driveway of his home in Westchester County, N.Y. Dina Litovsky for The New York Times

Kidnapping: A writer’s family friend was kidnapped and held for ransom. She writes about what came after — how he lived the rest of his life.

Abercrombie: The mall store has succeeded in a rebrand, The Cut reports. It’s now even selling wedding guest outfits.

“MaXXXine”: The director of the “X” trilogy, Ti West, is turning Hollywood toward horror.

The T List: Jenna Lyons shared her favorite beauty products, including the eyeliner she uses.

Metropolitan Diary: Surprise guest star.

Lives Lived: Jon Landau was an Oscar-winning producer who helped the director James Cameron bring to life three of the highest-grossing films of all time: “Titanic” and the two “Avatar” movies. He died at 63.

SPORTS

Coco Gauff Adam Vaughan/EPA, via Shutterstock

Wimbledon surprise: Coco Gauff, the No. 2 seed, lost in straight sets while publicly feuding with her coach.

M.L.B.: The league announced All-Star rosters. It included Paul Skenes, a pitching phenom who has had just two months in the major leagues.

W.N.B.A.: Angel Reese surpassed Candace Parker’s record for consecutive double-doubles, making her 13th in a row just 20 games into her pro career.

ARTS AND IDEAS

Caroline Li and Colin Wang seated on a couch smiling.

Caroline Li and Colin Wang Tag Christof for The New York Times

Across the U.S., young people faced with a difficult housing market are finding creative ways to save on living costs. One workaround: Moving in with a partner early on in a relationship. According to one survey, 80 percent of Gen Z respondents said that finances or logistics contributed to their decision to move in with their partner. As one might imagine, many of these relationships don’t survive the move.

More on culture

Alice Munro looks at the camera with a half smile.

Canadian author Alice Munro in 2013. Chad Hipolito/The Canadian Press, via Associated Press

The Nobel laureate Alice Munro’s daughter said that her stepfather sexually abused her at age 9, and that her mother stayed with him after she learned of it.
Ewan Mitchell plays the fearsome Aemond Targaryen in “House of the Dragon.” He’s still getting used to the attention that comes with starring in the “Game of Thrones” universe.
The youthful Brooklyn jewelry brand Catbird — known for its dainty designs — is expanding across America, 20 years after it opened its first store in Williamsburg.
Some South Asian women remember being embarrassed of their families’ hair oiling traditions. Now, beauty brands and celebrities are embracing the practice.
Alec Baldwin’s manslaughter trial over the fatal shooting on the “Rust” movie set is expected to begin this week. Read what to know.

THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …

A dish of noodles with zucchini, scallions, a slice of lemon and a soy-based sauce.

David Malosh for The New York Times

Toss stir-fried zucchini with cold noodles for this easy summer dinner.

Use a good milk frother.

Garnish your homemade cocktails.

Clean your luggage.

Make great cold brew at home.

Take our news quiz.

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