Semafor Flagship-Asia Morning Edition

"Labour set for UK win, Biden needs more sleep, Modi to visit Russia."

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

TOKYO  MOSCOW  SINGAPORE JULY 5, 2024 READ ON THE WEB Flagship Asia Morning Edition Sign up for our free newsletters→   The World Today Labour set for UK win Biden needs more sleep Modi to visit Russia Singapore’s investment draw Shedding ‘crazy rich’ rep China urges AI cooperation Sketchy malware site Upsides of anti-aging meds Human embryo research rules New hot dog eating champ A massive Asian film festival honors movies made with AI. ↓ 1 UK exit polls point to Labour landslide Claudia Greco/Reuters Britain’s opposition Labour Party is set to secure a landslide victory in the country’s general election, exit polls showed Thursday, while the ruling Conservatives are facing their worst result in history. Although the official results are set to be released through the evening, the exit polls suggest Labour leader Keir Starmer will be the country’s new prime minister — after 14 years of Conservative rule and five prime ministers. A widely predicted Labour victory marks a major transformation for UK politics, and shows just how much Britons have fallen out of love with the Conservatives, rejecting their efforts to deflect blame for the country’s economic crisis. The party became so unpopular,” The Guardian wrote, that they “could stand unopposed and only come second.” ↓ 2 Biden says he needs more sleep US President Joe Biden blamed his poor debate performance on fatigue, telling a group of Democratic governors that he needs to sleep more, work fewer hours, and decline events after 8 p.m. His comments reportedly frustrated several governors, as the president fights growing calls to quit the race — The Economist became the latest major outlet to say the 81-year-old “must withdraw.” Biden is now regrouping before “potentially the most critical 48 hours of his political career,” CNN’s Stephen Collinson wrote, and his primetime interview with ABC News on Friday is shaping up to be a greater challenge than the debate, given the urgency to course correct his disastrous performance. “No president has ever needed a public holiday like Joe Biden needs July 4.” For more news on Biden and the presidential race, subscribe to Principals, Semafor's daily politics newsletter. → ↓ 3 Modi to make first Russia visit since war Guglielmo Mangiapane/Reuters Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Russia next week, his first since the invasion of Ukraine, aligns with New Delhi’s strategy of maintaining good relations with Moscow as a counterbalance to China, analysts said. Russia’s drift into China’s orbit is worrying for India “because it’s like your best friend sleeping with the enemy,” an Indian defense expert said. Modi’s government has maintained an ambivalent stance on the Ukraine war and avoided criticizing Russia; India is a major buyer of discounted Russian oil despite strong Western sanctions. The trip will likely frustrate some of New Delhi’s allies who have sought to make Moscow a pariah, showing “that Russia enjoys the support of key emerging powers,” an expert wrote in The Interpreter. ↓ 4 Singapore attractive to Taiwan, Chinese firms Edgar Su/Reuters Singapore is becoming a hub for both Taiwanese and mainland Chinese companies seeking capital from a wider, and less politically volatile pool of investors. “We never do fundraising in mainland China — a lot of restrictions,” the head of a Taiwan-based capital market adviser said. Nikkei reported that Singapore is more attractive to Taiwanese startups in part because of Beijing’s tightening grip over the rival business hub of Hong Kong. Meanwhile, Chinese artificial intelligence companies are choosing Singapore as their hub, Bloomberg reported, to get access to global investors who want to stay away from the geopolitical tensions surrounding China. ↓ 5 Singapore tries to shed ‘crazy rich’ rep Singapore is trying to shed its Crazy Rich Asians image. The 2018 rom-com, which was backed by the Singaporean government, caused a record rise in tourism for the city-state, but also gave it a reputation of being an ultra-glitzy place only fit for the 1%: Private Crazy Rich Asians-themed tours show visitors the most lavish homes in Singapore. However, a recent article from a government agency sought to portray the city-state as affordable, dismissing “familiar tropes,” including “over-the-top mansions in Crazy Rich Asians, the infinity pool at Marina Bay Sands and incredibly expensive cars.” The push comes as locals face a cost-of-living crisis that they say was partially caused by the government’s effort to lure wealthy foreigners, the Financial Times’ Southeast Asia correspondent wrote. ↓ 6 China tries to keep up with AI curve Lukas Coch/Reuters Chinese Premier Li Qiang called for more global cooperation and an open environment in artificial intelligence, as Beijing’s competition with the US intensifies. Li said the manufacturing sector should more openly embrace AI. If that marriage of industry and AI “wins over Xi Jinping and other top leaders, it will pave the way for government incentives and policy support,” the Beijing-based Trivium research firm said. China is still figuring out how to ride the AI wave to help its economy: Li said AI development is “like setting sail on a vast ocean. The scenery ahead is exciting, but there will inevitably be storms along the way.” ↓ 7 US sites link to China-owned malware Dado Ruvic/Reuters Nearly 385,000 websites, including some owned by major companies like Hulu and Amazon, as well as the US government, link to a Chinese-owned malware site. The open-source site Polyfill originally hosted a JavaScript function which allowed older browsers to run newer web pages. But after it was bought by a Chinese company in February, the code was changed to redirect some users to adult and gambling sites. Domain hosts and other web infrastructure providers started blocking Polyfill after the malicious behavior came to light, but 384,773 sites and 182 .gov domains still have the link; Polyfill itself is now blocked, but if it ever came back online, the pages would start spreading malware again, Ars Technica reported, demonstrating the risk of supply-chain attacks. ↓ 8 Are downsides of anti-aging meds worth it? A Japanese elderly breakdancing club. Kim Kyung-Hoon/Reuters The benefits of anti-aging medicines will outweigh their costs, New Scientist argued in an editorial. The recent surge of research into the biology of aging has led to some fundamental discoveries being translated into experimental therapies: Vaccines against age-related conditions such as cancers, heart disease, and dementia could be available by 2030. Some are worried about downsides, including population explosion, societal stagnation, and inequality. But, New Scientist wrote, if the therapies work, you can’t “put the genie back in the bottle.” And besides, those could also be arguments against antibiotics and vaccines and other life-saving advances which we think are good: “If we can make lives longer and less painful, the downsides are a price worth paying.” ↓ 9 UK’s rules on human embryo research The UK unveiled the world’s first set of rules for research on lab-grown embryos. Britain has taken the lead on human embryo research regulation in the past. But while strict rules exist for using real embryos in research, the use of lab-grown models — which face fewer restrictions and can be made in large numbers — has recently exploded. As they become increasingly sophisticated, and more like real embryos, these models raise ethical questions of their own. UK’s voluntary code prohibits implantation of lab-grown embryos in human or animal uteruses, but sets no time limit on how long they can be grown for. A Japanese bioethicist told Nature that “the world is paying close attention” to the UK, for its “history of swiftly establishing national rules on human embryo research.” ↓ 10 New hot dog eating champion crowned Kent J. Edwards/Reuters Nathan’s Famous International Hot Dog Eating Contest crowned a new male champion. Chicago’s Patrick Bertoletti scarfed down 58 hot dogs in 10 minutes to take the title, while Miki Sudo set a women’s record with 51. Not to minimize Bertoletti’s dedication — “I wasn’t going to stop eating until the job was done,” he said — but he was likely helped by the absence of 16-time champion Joey “Jaws” Chestnut, who was barred from competing over his sponsorship deal with Impossible Foods. Chestnut is instead holding his own hot dog eating contest with four US Army soldiers. A uniquely American tradition, the competition draws tens of thousands of viewers in person, and more than a million on TV. Americans eat an estimated 150 million hot dogs on Independence Day. ↓ Flagging July 5: Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan visits Azerbaijan. The Dalai Lama, Tibet’s spiritual leader, turns 89. The annual snail racing championship takes place in the UK. ↓ Substack Rojak Rojak is a colloquial Malay word for “eclectic mix,” and is the name for a Javanese dish that typically combines sliced fruit and vegetables with a spicy dressing. Meet ‘SASEA’ There’s a new geographic bloc in town. It’s called SASEA, and stands for South Asia and Southeast Asia — which would include countries like India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand. Pronounced like “SAZ-ee-uh,” the term was coined by writer Noah Smith, who makes a compelling case for why this region makes sense as a grouping, and why we should keep an eye on it: It holds a third of the world’s population, which is relatively young, its economies are growing, and it’s receiving a flood of foreign investment. The region will also benefit from the geopolitical tensions surrounding China, with many companies — including some Chinese ones — diversifying away from Beijing to avoid Western tariffs. While some say developed countries’ protectionist policies against China threaten to reverse globalization, Smith argues in his newsletter Noahpinion that it actually accelerates globalization. “Without developed countries’ de-risking and protectionism, SASEA might have had to wait for several more decades before cost pressures finally forced Chinese firms to invest abroad.” Plunging into the swamps To understand the mood of the UK’s general election this week, one must understand a fundamental truth about Brits: They love to be disappointed. Sam Kriss argues in Persuasion that the UK’s penchant for feeling crummy goes beyond politics, from lackluster public events — remember the viral Willy Wonka “Chocolate Experience” fiasco in Glasgow? — to the weather. It’s not a new phenomenon: The Roman historian Cassius Dio wrote that Britons “can endure hunger and cold and any kind of hardship; for they plunge into the swamps and exist there for many days with only their heads above water.” It’s only recently that the rest of the world has caught onto the Brits’ situation. “Friends in other countries started asking if I was ok, if I was surviving out there,” Kriss writes. “Do you have any idea what it’s like to be pitied by a Belgian?” When it comes to the election, a massive Labour victory isn’t necessarily attributable to enthusiasm for Labour policies, but rather that “nobody could possibly expect anything” from the ruling Conservatives anymore. An unambiguous message A recent outburst of violence in China showed the sensitivity of issues related to Japan, and the limit of institutions’ tolerance of anti-Japan nationalism. In late June, a Chinese man armed with a knife attacked a Japanese school bus in the Chinese city Suzhou; a bus attendant, a Chinese woman, died from injuries sustained from trying to stop the attack. The Chinese internet quickly lit up with discourse around the incident, with some anti-Japanese hate speech. “If it involves Japanese people, oh boy, you are destined to see a pile of ugly mess here,” Robert Wu writes in China Translated. But the government wasted no time in declaring the woman a hero, and it didn’t dwell on the different nationalities of those involved. And almost all major online platforms — which are closely monitored by the government — announced they would crack down on hate speech against Japan. “The message sent to all corners of our society is unambiguous,” Wu wrote. “You may want to dislike Japan, you may even want to do some indecent stupid acts and we can’t stop you. But violence is a big no-no.” ↓ Curio STUDIO FREEWILLUSION Asia’s largest genre film festival kicked off Thursday with a new category for movies made with artificial intelligence. The 11-day Bucheon International Fantastic Film Festival in South Korea features more than 200 short and feature films from around the world. The AI category will assess films on both their technological prowess, as well as their artistic merit and message. One high-profile entry is One More Pumpkin, which director Kwon Han-seul made in just five days. The film, which won best picture at the inaugural Artificial Intelligence Film Festival in Dubai in March, is about an elderly couple who live on a pumpkin farm and defy death. ↓ Hot on Semafor Climate change is fueling more hurricanes like Beryl. China races for dominance in Central Asia. Netanyahu is at increasing odds with the Israeli military over ceasefire.