CFR Daily News Brief

"NATO Air Defense pledges for Ukraine."

Views expressed in this geopolitical news update are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 10 July 2024, 1333 UTC.

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

Daily News Brief July 10, 2024

Top of the Agenda

NATO Allies Announce Plans to Send New Air Defense Systems to Ukraine

The United States, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Romania will send Ukraine the equipment for five additional air defense systems in the coming months, U.S. President Joe Biden said yesterday at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) alliance’s summit in Washington. Other allies will provide Kyiv with additional air defense equipment and munitions, Biden added. The support will help ensure that Kyiv “will prevail” in the war, which will result in Ukraine “remaining a free and independent country,” Biden said in yesterday’s speech. He described the alliance as “more powerful than ever” as it faces a “pivotal moment” in Russia’s war in Ukraine. As the summit continues for its second day today, allies are discussing the bloc’s general military readiness in addition to the war in Ukraine. The alliance placed an order for Stinger anti-aircraft missiles worth nearly $700 million, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said yesterday. (AP, BBC, Reuters)

Analysis “The growing number of Russian drones able to fly well behind Ukraine’s front lines is one of the most significant problems,” the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Michael Kofman tells the New York Times. “However, the most pressing is a deficit of air defense systems to defend infrastructure, and the need to address shortfalls in Ukraine’s electricity grid ahead of the winter.”   “We’ve done a remarkable job of helping Ukraine defend itself, eighty-plus percent of the country is still standing under Kyiv’s control. I think we’re going to pivot to a new strategy sometime, sooner rather than later,” CFR Senior Fellow Charles Kupchan said at this Virtual Media Briefing, “ensuring that it survives as a democratic, prosperous, secure country.” On the sidelines of the summit, CFR hosted conversations with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis.

Pacific Rim

Beijing Announces Six-Month Probe Into European Trade Practices

China’s trade ministry said the investigation will look into European Union (EU) scrutiny of products including Chinese locomotives, solar panels, wind power producers, and security-check equipment. Experts say such a probe could curtail or increase trade tensions, depending on its outcome. (SCMP)   For RealEcon, CFR expert Liana Fix looks inside Europe’s new tariffs on China.  Thailand: Provisional results of a complex election process to choose two hundred senators showed that relatively few will join from the ruling Pheu Thai Party. The Senate does not play a role in picking who becomes prime minister, but it has the authority to vet law and approve appointees for some government bodies. (Reuters)

South and Central Asia

Modi Tells Putin ‘Peace Is of Utmost Importance’

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow yesterday that “solutions are not possible on the battleground,” and that India was ready to cooperate to restore peace in Ukraine. The two leaders also pledged to boost bilateral trade by some $35 billion by 2030. (Nikkei, FT)    In this Expert Brief, CFR Fellow Thomas Graham explains what Putin really wants in Ukraine.  Afghanistan/Pakistan: UN refugee leader Filippo Grandi praised Pakistan for suspending its deportation drive of undocumented Afghan migrants yesterday. However, a spokesperson for Pakistan’s foreign ministry refuted the claim today and said the campaign was still being “implemented in an orderly and phased manner.” (RFE/RL, Arab News)

Middle East and North Africa

Bloomberg: Riyadh Suggested It Would Sell Off European Debt if Russian Assets Seized

Earlier this year, Saudi Arabia’s finance ministry hinted to some Group of Seven (G7) counterparts that it might sell off European debt if some $300 billion of frozen Russian assets were seized, unnamed sources told Bloomberg, during a period in which Western allies were debating the fate of the funds. Saudi Arabia denied making such a threat. Western nations later decided not to seize the assets, but to tap their profits. Sources close to the matter said it was still unclear if Saudi Arabia was acting out of self-interest or in alignment with Russia. (Bloomberg) Israel/Lebanon/Syria: Iran-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah launched rockets into the Golan Heights following an apparent Israeli strike in Syria yesterday. The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the Israeli drone attack killed two Hezbollah members, further fueling concerns that the region is on the brink of full-scale war. (NYT)

Sub-Saharan Africa

Ethiopian Prime Minister Visits Sudan’s Army Chief 

Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed met with Sudan’s General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in a trip his office said was part of efforts to find “sustainable solutions for Sudan’s stability.” He is the first foreign leader to visit Sudan’s army general in the war capital of Port Sudan since the start of the now fifteen-month war. In December, Abiy hosted the leader of the paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces, who are fighting the army in Sudan’s civil war. (Reuters)   CFR’s Center for Preventive Action tracks the war in Sudan.  South Sudan: Opposition negotiators to a provisional peace deal in the country said they would not sign it unless they saw the removal of a law that allows people to be detained without a warrant. Kenya has been hosting negotiations since May between government envoys and rebel groups that were excluded from a 2018 deal to end the country’s five-year civil war. (AP)

Europe

Brussels Freezes $32 Million in Aid to Georgia, Says EU Accession Is ‘Stopped’

The measures described yesterday by the EU ambassador to Georgia come after Tbilisi passed a foreign influence law in May that is similar to one that Russia has used to crack down on dissent. (Moscow Times)

Americas

Brazil, Bolivia Discuss Trade, Migration

The leaders of the two countries discussed trade and agricultural cooperation, and began negotiations on ensuring migrants have access to health systems in both states, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said on a visit to the Bolivian city of Santa Cruz de la Sierra. Lula also spoke about La Paz’s failed coup attempt last month and underscored the importance of not letting Bolivia “fall into this trap again.” (MercoPress) Chile: The government received eighty-eight proposals for new lithium projects as part of a process that aims to put three to four new projects in development by the end of 2026. The high number of proposals means the government will weigh approving exploration in places it did not originally consider, Chile’s finance minister said yesterday. (Bloomberg)

U.S. Campaign 2024

Zelenskyy in Washington, Calls for Continued Support for Ukraine in Next U.S. Presidency 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke yesterday to an audience of several prominent Republicans at the Reagan Institute. He referenced former U.S. President Ronald Reagan’s commitment to strength against adversaries and said that decisions to be “strong and uncompromising” should be made now instead of waiting “for November.” In an interview after the speech, he said that he hopes U.S. policy toward Ukraine will not change if former President Donald Trump is reelected. He is due to meet with lawmakers on Capitol Hill today, and with Biden on Thursday. (Ukrainian Presidency, AP)

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