Semafor Flagship: Asia Morning Edition

"Investors bet on Modi, US ceasefire diplomacy, Maldives to ban Israelis."

Views expressed in this Geopolitical news and analysis are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 03 June 2024, 2240 UTC.

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

DOHA  MUMBAI  JAKARTA JUNE 4, 2024 READ ON THE WEB

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Investors bet on Modi US ceasefire diplomacy Maldives to ban Israelis Remembering Tiananmen Indonesia capital woes Skin cancer vaccine Studying doom and gloom Japan makes science free Non-Americans’ take on US Travelers in trouble A Japanese version of the Tiny Desk Concerts series shows promise. ↓ 1

Indian stocks up on election results eve

Indian stocks hit record highs on Monday, boosted by exit polls forecasting a big win for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Full elections results will be released Tuesday, with investors betting that a third Modi term will usher in more business-friendly policies and capital spending. Modi wants to make it easier to hire and fire workers and reduce import taxes for parts that are critical to locally made goods, Reuters reported. It’s part of an effort to turn India into a global industrial hub that can counter China, with Modi pitching the country as an alternative to Beijing in companies’ supply chains. New Delhi’s goal is ambitious: India is responsible for less than 3% of global manufacturing, while China controls 24%. ↓ 2

US pressures Qatar to pressure Hamas

REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein US officials made a diplomatic push Monday to pressure Hamas to accept a ceasefire deal championed by the White House. US President Joe Biden told Qatar’s leader that Israel is ready to move forward with the three-phase plan, though Israeli officials said Biden’s version, which proposed an end to the war, was “inaccurate.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed cautious support for the plan, but denied that Israel had agreed to end the war permanently, potentially derailing talks as Hamas wants a permanent ceasefire. Netanyahu is also balancing domestic political considerations, after hard-right ministers threatened to quit if he signs a deal. He “may soon be forced to choose: Agree to a ceasefire deal with Hamas or keep his government in power,” CNN wrote. ↓ 3

Maldives plans to ban Israeli tourists

The Maldives plans to ban Israelis from the country, its president said, as public anger over the war in Gaza rises in the archipelagic South Asian state. It’s the latest diplomatic snub for Israel, which finds itself increasingly isolated internationally: Several European countries formally recognized a Palestinian state and Turkey banned imports and exports from the country, causing shortages within Israel, local media reported Monday. As a small country, the Maldives’ clout is limited, but it is a popular tourist destination: Almost 11,000 Israelis visited in 2023. The country’s previous ban on Israeli tourists was lifted in the early 1990s, and it moved to restore relations in 2010. But normalization efforts were thwarted after then-president Mohamed Nasheed resigned in 2012. ↓ 4

Tiananmen’s impact, 35 years later

REUTERS/Carlos Jasso Activists outside China will mark the 35th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre Tuesday; any mentions of it have long been banned domestically. Beijing’s image in the West immediately after Tiananmen in 1989 — during which authorities opened fire on thousands of pro-democracy activists, solidifying the Chinese Communist Party’s grip on the country — suffered a “one-time shock,” while the subsequent crackdown on dissent under Xi Jinping created “a systematic, progressive, long-term falloff” in the country’s global reputation, a China researcher said. That trend is evident today in Hong Kong, which was once the only place in China that could openly commemorate Tiananmen victims, but now forbids vigils under new national security laws. The city has deployed undercover police officers to monitor events commemorating Tiananmen. ↓ 5

New Indonesian capital in trouble

REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan The top two officials overseeing the building of Indonesia’s new capital unexpectedly resigned, leaving the future of the $32 billion project in doubt. The relocation of Indonesia’s capital from Jakarta to Nusantara, located in the jungles of Borneo, has been touted as President Joko Widodo’s legacy project, with plans to celebrate the city’s launch before he leaves office in October. But it has been plagued by construction delays and has struggled to attract private investment, postponing the relocation of thousands of civil servants to the capital. President-elect Prabowo Subianto “has promised to continue building the capital, but whether he will is anybody’s guess,” BenarNews reported. ↓ Plug The Europeans is an award-winning podcast that combines clear-eyed analysis of European politics with recommendations for the continent’s best culture offerings and a twist of humor. The latest episode investigates how Big Agriculture has co-opted Europe’s farming protests. Subscribe and start listening here. ↓ 6

A potential vaccine for skin cancer

REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan A clinical trial of a combined mRNA vaccine and cancer immunotherapy treatment significantly improved odds of survival for patients with melanoma, a potentially deadly form of skin cancer. The results, published on Monday, come from a Moderna-Merck trial involving 157 people with mid-stage cancer who were followed over two and a half years; further trials are ongoing. The immunotherapy — Keytruda — has been hailed as a “lightning-in-a-bottle” treatment for cancer that works by boosting the body’s own immune system to fight tumors. But combined treatments with mRNA vaccines could open the door to personalized cancer therapies tailored to a person’s own immune system in the future, researchers said. ↓ 7

Embracing the chaos

Doom and gloom headlines about climate change, nuclear warfare, and the dangers of artificial intelligence can seem terrifying, but studying existential risk can be a helpful way to understand, rather than shy away from, these challenges, a New Yorker feature outlined. After observing a class at the University of Chicago titled “Are We Doomed?,” writer Rivka Galchen found the students were “much less daunted or flattened by reflecting on the future than I was — than most people I speak with are.” One student said: “It’s a weird feeling — to be certain that the world will end. … So you think, I may as well dedicate myself to something.” The course puts existential risks in a historical context and encourages creative assignments like creating a doomsday video game. ↓ 8

Japan makes research free to read

The University of Tokyo. Wikimedia Commons. Japan will push ahead to make all publicly funded research free to read. The scientific publishing industry takes scientists’ research for free, then often hides it behind expensive paywalls. Funding bodies in the US and Europe have for six years now demanded that research backed by state money should be made open-access, to improve the free flow of knowledge. Japan’s science and culture ministry announced a similar plan in February, and this month will start helping universities to build the infrastructure required to implement it. Journals will not be required to make the papers free themselves, but researchers will make a version of their papers available in digital repositories. ↓ 9

Outsiders should write about the US

The 'Succession' cast. REUTERS/Mario Anzuoni It is not only legitimate but “necessary” for outsiders to write about the US, argued the creator of Succession. Jesse Armstrong, the British writer behind the popular show about corporate America, wrote in The New Statesman that being in Britain means “we live in something of a rainy Puerto Rico,” where despite lacking representation in Congress, its politics and culture are influenced by “the flows of American capital and moods of American culture.” Armstrong acknowledged that British writing about the US can be condescending, but that there is value in an outsiders’ perspective because they can “see the alarming cracks in the wall the resident has stopped noticing… [but] also see the grandeur of a room where the resident can only see the cracks.” ↓ 10

US braces for chaotic summer travel

Liu Guanguan/China News Service/VCG Would-be vacationers in the US should “brace for disappointment” this summer due to a shortage of planes during a record travel season, Bloomberg wrote. US airlines are still struggling as Boeing’s well-documented troubles affect aircraft deliveries: There are 6.2 million fewer seats available between June and August than carriers had planned. Meanwhile passenger numbers are expected to rise by about 10% above last year’s record. Worldwide, demand is up too, with industry bodies projecting record revenues for airlines in 2024. ↓ Flagging June 4: US President Joe Biden arrives in France for a state visit. South Korea hosts an economic summit with 45 African delegations. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Labour leader Keir Starmer face off in the first televised debate of the election. ↓ Curio Screenshot from YouTube NPR Music The Japanese version of NPR’s Tiny Desk Concerts series could serve as a springboard for musical acts to achieve international fame. Japanese public broadcaster NHK partnered with NPR to adopt the simple concept — an artist performs a live set of their hits behind a desk — and kicked off the series with rising J-pop star Fujii Kaze. Music and culture writer Patrick St. Michel made the case in The Japan Times that while some globally popular Japanese artists should be featured on NPR’s Tiny Desk series, the local version can “become a place for the full spectrum of Japanese music to shine, not just the top-level stuff.” ↓ Hot on Semafor Inside the NATO debate over protecting Ukraine’s skies. Labor strikes shut down essential services in Nigeria. China accuses the UK of recruiting spies.