Semafor Flagship: America's Morning Edition

"Chaos for Europe's giants, Trump seeks black votes, Peru's China megaport."

Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analysis are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 14 June 2024, 1248 UTC.

Content and Source:  https://www.semafor.com/newsletters/flagship.

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

 

BERLIN  CHANCAY  MUNICH JUNE 14, 2024 READ ON THE WEB Flagship Americas Morning Edition Sign up for our free newsletters→

The World Today Chaos for Europe’s giants Trump seeks Black votes Perú’s Chinese megaport EV sanctions won’t work Fears over China’s science Microsoft’s security focus AI in soccer’s Euros UN calls for Sudan help Japan green energy boost A very old termite mound Mexico’s new president’s unexpected family history, and Flagship recommends Viggo Mortensen’s new Western.

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1 Political chaos for Europe’s big three Reuters/Nadja Wohlleben Germany’s government is fracturing over a budget deficit, meaning all three of Europe’s largest economies face political upheaval. Chancellor Olaf Scholz presides over an uneasy coalition of fiscal conservatives and tax-and-spend left-wingers, and arguments over how to make up a €40 billion shortfall in the upcoming budget are splitting that alliance. With French President Emmanuel Macron having called a snap election in the face of far-right gains in the European Parliament, and Britain’s ruling Conservatives facing near-annihilation in that country’s own rapidly approaching election, a period of instability in Europe’s powerhouses is coming — inconveniently timed instability, with wars in Europe and the Middle East and the US presidential campaign under way.

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EXCLUSIVE 2 Trump makes pitch to Black voters Al Lucca Black voters in the US want “strength,” Donald Trump told Semafor in an interview. The former president’s remarks came as he seeks to win over African Americans, who have historically supported Democrats, in his efforts to return to the White House. “They want strength, they want security,” he said. “They want jobs … They don’t want to have millions of people come and take their jobs.” The article came a day after Trump returned to the US Capitol for the first time since the Jan. 6, 2021 riot there by his supporters, a visit in which he pledged to restore Republican unity, but which the former Democratic House of Representatives speaker condemned as “returning to the scene of the crime.” Read the full interview with Trump, and how he defended himself against allegations of racism. →

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3 China’s Peru port worries US A new Chinese megaport in Perú could further strengthen Beijing’s grip over South America’s resources, raising fears in the US. The port, set to open this year, will be capable of receiving the world’s biggest ships, opening a direct route between Perú and Shanghai. A highway connecting the port to Brazil’s Atlantic coast is also under discussion. Officials hope the project will spark a wave of investment across the continent as Washington vies to keep up with China. However other projects in Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative offer a cautionary tale: Almost two decades after it was announced, Pakistan’s billion-dollar Gwadar port still sits empty.

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4 EU tariff impact likely limited Reuters/Claudia Greco/File Photo The European Union’s new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles are unlikely to derail Beijing’s automakers, analysts said. China criticized the tariffs of up to 48% and threatened to file a complaint with the World Trade Organization over their imposition, but their ultimate impact may be limited: Europe is a far bigger market than the US for Chinese EV makers, and the new tariffs mean Chinese EVs will be roughly equivalent in price to their European counterparts, while offering better automotive technology and more varied design, experts told Nikkei. The trade restrictions are, however, having an impact in other ways, with Stellantis — which owns the Jeep and Fiat brands — planning to shift some of its production away from China.

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5 The US war on Chinese science Washington’s efforts to slow China’s progress in science and technology would be misguided even if they were likely to work, The Economist argued. In recent decades, China — partly through investment, partly through intellectual theft — has become a leading scientific power, producing some of the world’s best research. Good science produces “knowledge that benefits all humanity,” such as new solar panels and improved agricultural techniques. But it also produces technology with military uses. The US has focused on that threat, trying to “stymie China using sanctions” and other restrictions. But those efforts are unlikely to significantly hamper Chinese efforts, and would also slow global progress. The US would do better to focus “more on pushing itself ahead,” the magazine said.

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6 Microsoft scrambles to fix security laws Reuters/Gary He/File Photo Microsoft promised it would focus on security after a bug in its system allowed major cyberattacks to steal government officials’ data. The company’s President Brad Smith told Congress that cybersecurity would be an even higher priority for the firm than artificial intelligence, with CEO Satya Nadella taking on overall accountability for its delivery. A whistleblower had said Microsoft ignored the vulnerability for years over fears it would lose its government contract: 60,000 State Department emails were stolen in a Chinese-linked attack, and Microsoft’s own data was taken by a Russian group. Smith told Congress we “must do better,” and Nadella said in an all-staff email that given a choice between security and other priorities, “your answer is clear: Do security.”

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7 AI VAR at the 2024 Euros Reuters/Fabien Bimmer The men’s soccer European Championship — featuring most of the sport’s dominant nations — kicks off today, with hosts Germany facing Scotland in the opening match. Bookmakers say England and France are favorites, although England had a rocky send-off with a friendly defeat at home to minnows Iceland. The tournament will also see the latest version of the controversial “video assistant referee,” now powered by artificial intelligence algorithms and a motion sensor at the center of the match ball. VAR is disliked by some fans for slowing down the game but a sports physicist told Nature that the new edition should roughly halve the time to make a decision, hopefully allowing fans to celebrate in confidence.

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Plug On the ground at Cannes: Starting Monday, the Semafor Media team will launch a free pop-up Cannes newsletter, your ultimate guide to navigating the panels, parties, and yachts on the Côte d’Azur. Get the scoop on key moments, influential people, and big ideas of the festival. Whether you’re attending or just curious about the deals and connections being made, Semafor Cannes is your go-to resource. Sign up for free.

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8 UN urges end to Darfur siege The United Nations Security Council demanded an end to the siege of the last city in Sudan’s Darfur region still under army control. The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces have been attacking El Fasher for weeks, with the UN saying some of the violence is “ethnically motivated.” Across Sudan, aid groups said more than 750,000 people could face famine by September. The war, which has forced 10 million people to flee to neighboring countries, has failed to gain the attention it deserves, the US ambassador to the UN told Semafor’s Mixed Signals podcast. Despite reports that genocide is happening, “this does not get the front page attention of the international press,” Linda Thomas-Greenfield said. Listen to Mixed Signals by Semafor Media for the US ambassador to the UN’s full comments. →

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9 Japan bets on tech for transition Japan — a climate laggard among rich nations which is heavily dependent on fossil fuel imports — could be entirely energy independent by 2060 because of a major renewables push, a prominent analyst suggested. The remarks by the chief executive of the Rystad Energy firm to Reuters underscored how far behind Japan is compared to its G7 peers, recording the lowest clean-power generation rates of wealthy countries. In a bid to address that, Tokyo is in particular placing a major bet on floating offshore wind, an advanced technology that officials hope will help accelerate Japan’s energy transition. Experts warn, however, that building an entire industry, infrastructure, and supply chain for a technology that hasn’t yet been commercialized will be a massive undertaking. For more on the energy transition, subscribe to Semafor’s twice-weekly Net Zero newsletter. →

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10 Ice-age termite mound discovered Field with termite mounds in Namaqualand, South Africa. Wikimedia Commons. Scientists found the world’s oldest known inhabited termite mound. The mounds, in Namaqualand, South Africa, were first built 34,000 years ago, meaning they were old when wooly mammoths walked the Earth, and are twice as old as the famous Lascaux cave paintings. The previous oldest known mounds, in Brazil, are “just” 4,000 years old. The termites that inhabit them have been harvesting organic material for the entire time, meaning that the layers of sediment within the mounds are a record of climate and ecosystem changes since deep into the last ice age: It is like “being able to read an ancient manuscript,” one scientist said.

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Flagging Millions of Muslims gather in Saudi Arabia for the start of the annual Hajj pilgrimage. NATO defense ministers meet in Brussels. The Pope hosts a cultural event at the Vatican with US comedians including Stephen Colbert and Jimmy Fallon.

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Semafor Stat The year that Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum’s forbearers moved to Mexico, calling into question her account of her family history. According to Sheinbaum — who will become Mexico’s first Jewish-heritage president — her family fled Bulgaria in 1940, escaping a pro-Nazi regime. However The Jewish Forward revealed that the family’s journey to Mexico is more complicated: According to archival documents, Sheinbaum’s family spent the war in Bulgaria and made their way to Mexico in 1946, having previously transited through Lebanon, Palestine, New York, and Texas. “It’s unclear if Sheinbaum knew the true story … but it sheds light on a complicated chapter of global history,” The Jewish Forward wrote.

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Recommendation The Dead Don’t Hurt, directed by Viggo Mortensen. Mortensen’s second work as director is a “ruminative state-of-the-nation Western,” as the British Film Institute puts it. The story, set in 1860s America, follows Hoger Olsen, a Danish immigrant played by Mortensen and Vivienne, a French-Canadian woman played by Vicky Krieps. The two move to a remote frontier town, where Vivienne becomes entangled with the corrupt town mayor and a violent land baron’s son. The narrative, which at points shows Mortensen’s “clumsiness — or boldness,” in the words of the London Review of Books, is non-linear, and touches on themes of love, violence, and injustice.

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Hot on Semafor Immigration activists are starting to miss Bob Menendez. G7 agrees outline of $50B deal to fund Ukraine using frozen Russian assets. Renewable energy alone can’t save Ukraine’s faltering grid.

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