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"Russia-North Korea Defense Pact | EU sanctions Russian Gas | Canada adds IRGC to terrorism list."

Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analysis are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 20 June 2024, 1340 UTC.

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

Daily News Brief June 20, 2024

Top of the Agenda

Putin Signs New Bilateral Agreements in North Korea, Vietnam

Russia and North Korea will provide each other military support “without delay” if either country is ever invaded, according to a new bilateral agreement reported by North Korean state media today. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the deal on a state visit to North Korea yesterday before traveling on to Vietnam, where he signed a series of agreements on education, energy, health, and technology.   Japan, South Korea, and the secretary-general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) voiced alarm over the Russia-North Korea deal, with Seoul warning that cooperation on military technology would violate UN Security Council resolutions. While the Russia-Vietnam deals were less substantial, a spokesperson for the U.S. Embassy in Hanoi responded to Putin’s visit by saying that “no country should give Putin a platform to promote his war of aggression and otherwise allow him to normalize his atrocities.” The United States upgraded its relations with Vietnam last year. (Yonhap, AP, FT, Reuters)

Analysis “The more likely consequence of the [Russia-North Korea] treaty is simply closer cooperation in weapons production, with North Korea manufacturing more munitions for Russia and Russia providing more high-end help for North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs, likely including aid in developing submarines capable of launching ballistic nuclear missiles. Both countries will become more dangerous as a result of this new partnership,” CFR Senior Fellow Sue Mi Terry writes in this Expert Brief. “Vietnam will be wise enough to make sure that the visit will not harm its relation with U.S. and western partners,” Le Hong Hiep of Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute tells the Financial Times. “It has been able to maintain good ties with all the major powers, and that plays an important role in helping Vietnam attract investment from different partners.”

Pacific Rim

Philippines Says Chinese Actions in South China Sea Amount to ‘Piracy’

Manila said yesterday that a Chinese attempt to disrupt a Philippine resupply mission in the South China Sea earlier this week led to injuries and theft of property. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson blamed the Philippines for the altercation and reasserted Beijing’s control over the maritime area near the disputed Spratly Islands. (Nikkei, CNN)   This timeline charts China’s maritime disputes.

South and Central Asia

Bipartisan Group of U.S. Lawmakers Meet With Dalai Lama in India

The seven-person envoy met with the exiled Tibetan leader yesterday and voiced support for a bill that would urge China to move forward on a stalled dialogue with Tibetan leaders. Beijing called the Dalai Lama and his group “separatist” and said that Washington should refrain from contacting them. (Times of India) Armenia/Azerbaijan/France: A top advisor to Azerbaijan’s president told media yesterday that France’s pledge to supply new arms to Armenia will harm Armenia-Azerbaijan normalization efforts. Armenia said it has “the sovereign right” to maintain well-equipped armed forces. The two countries have clashed in recent years over the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region. (Reuters)

Middle East and North Africa

Shipping Groups Call for De-escalation in Red Sea After Sinking of Ship

Attacks on commercial shipping “must stop now,” leading industry groups said in a joint statement yesterday. It followed confirmation that a Greek-owned coal carrier that Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels attacked last week has sunk. The head of operations at marine war risk and insurance specialist Vessel Protect counted ten Houthi strikes on shipping so far this month, up from five in May. (Reuters)   U.S./Syria: The United States killed a senior official from the self-declared Islamic State in a Syria air strike on Sunday, U.S. Central Command reported yesterday. It added that there was “no indication” that civilians were harmed in the strike. (CNN)

Sub-Saharan Africa

Reuters: Somalia Seeks to Delay Withdrawal of African Union Peacekeepers

The ongoing scale-down was put in motion at Mogadishu’s request, but the Somali government has asked for a more gradual pullout over concerns that al-Shabaab militants could fill a security vacuum, according to a letter seen by Reuters. The letter asked for two thousand troops, due to depart by the end of June, to remain until September. (Reuters)   The Center for Preventive Action traces the conflict with al-Shabaab in Somalia.   South Africa: The country’s public health system has run out of insulin pens as syringe producers shift their focus to weight-loss drugs, the New York Times reports. Novo Nordisk, the company that makes Ozempic and Wegovy, did not renew its contract with South Africa’s government, saying “manufacturing capacity limitations” may have limited access to human insulin pens. No other firm bid on the insulin-supply contract. (NYT)

Europe

EU Bans Russian Gas Transfers at European Ports

Today’s deal aims to constrain Russia’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments by banning transfers bound for third countries from one vessel to another at European ports. This is the first European Union (EU) sanctions package targeting Russian gas. Russia moved to cut EU member countries off from pipeline natural gas after it invaded Ukraine in 2022, but EU members have since increased their imports of LNG, which they would still be able to buy under the new agreement. (FT)   Brussels: The European Commission warned that seven EU countries including France and Italy should reduce their fiscal deficits by November or face disciplinary action. The bloc has not imposed penalties based on fiscal rules since before the COVID-19 pandemic. (Reuters)

Americas

Canada Adds Iran’s IRGC to Terrorism List

Adding the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to Canada’s list of terrorist organizations enables Canadian authorities to charge and freeze the assets of entities that support the group. Canada’s public safety minister said the move seeks to ensure “there is no immunity for Iran’s unlawful actions and its support of terrorism.” (CBC)   This Backgrounder unpacks the role of the IRGC.   Haiti: Violence and political instability in Haiti have internally displaced a record 578,074 people so far this year, UN officials said in a new report today. They added that 2,500 people were reportedly killed or injured in the first quarter of 2024 and called for progress on a planned Kenya-led multinational security mission to the country. (UNHCR)

United States

First Tropical Storm of Atlantic Hurricane Season Prompts Flood Warnings in Texas

Some residents south of Houston evacuated (CBS) their homes as tropical storm Alberto grew in the Gulf of Mexico, while several Juneteenth celebrations were rescheduled due to flooding in Galveston.

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