CFR Daily News Brief

"Activists convicted in Hong Kong and NATO meets in Prague."

Views expressed in this geopolitical news and analysis are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 30 May 2024, 1307 UTC.

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

Daily News Brief May 30, 2024

Top of the Agenda

Hong Kong Court Convicts Fourteen Activists, Politicians in Closely-Watched Trial

A court convicted (NYT) the pro-democracy figures today of “conspiracy to commit subversion,” which carries a maximum sentence of life imprisonment, in a sweeping national security trial that followed anti-government protests in 2019 and 2020. The closely-watched case began with charges against forty-seven people in 2021; many pleaded guilty, while sixteen fought the charges. Only two of those sixteen were acquitted today. Western countries have long denounced the charges, with the European Union saying today that the convictions marked (FT) a “further deterioration of fundamental freedoms” in Hong Kong.   The trial underscored how a Beijing-imposed national security law has reshaped Hong Kong in the wake of anti-government protests. While Hong Kong was once known for its judicial independence from China, a wave of political cases is changing that. A separate trial against Jimmy Lai, a businessman and prominent critic of Beijing, is also underway.

Analysis “[The verdicts show] the use of peaceful means to pressure the Hong Kong government could become a criminal activity,” Georgetown University’s Eric Lai tells Voice of America. “The Hong Kong government has instrumentalized the courts to punish opposition forces, a method widely used by other autocratic regimes.”   “Beijing’s steady suffocation of [Hong Kong’s] autonomy resembles its strategy toward claimed maritime spaces,” the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Isaac Kardon and Jennifer Kavanagh write for Foreign Affairs. “China has implemented legal actions that expand its effective control over critical aspects of Hong Kong’s governance, all without resorting to military force.”   This Backgrounder by Lindsay Maizland and CFR’s Clara Fong looks at how China is cracking down on Hong Kong.

Pacific Rim

China to Restrict Exports of Some Aviation, Aerospace Equipment

Beijing will begin requiring (SCMP) export licenses for some aviation and military technologies on July 1 due to national security interests, its commerce department and military equipment department said. The United States, Singapore, and Vietnam were the top three importers of the affected air and space manufacturing products in the first four months of 2024, according to Chinese customs data.

South and Central Asia

Azerbaijan President: Resettlement of Nagorno-Karabakh Capital Will Start in September

Baku will begin efforts (Reuters) to resettle the region’s capital in September, President Ilham Aliyev said. Azerbaijan carried out a military campaign last fall in what was previously an ethnic Armenian enclave.   This photo essay by CFR’s Sabine Baumgartner and Diana Roy shows the Armenian exodus from Nagorno-Karabakh.   Myanmar: Ethnic rebel groups have expanded and consolidated (Reuters) their control along much of Myanmar’s international borders, two separate conflict monitors said in new reports today. The Special Advisory Council for Myanmar calculated that the junta lost total authority over 86 percent of the country’s territory, while the International Crisis Group said many ethnic armed groups were “well on the way to establishing autonomous statelets.”

Middle East and North Africa

Israeli National Security Advisor Projects Gaza War Will Continue Through Year’s End

Israel expects another seven months (NYT) of combat in the Gaza Strip before it destroys the military and governing capabilities of Hamas and the Islamic Jihad, Israeli National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi told Israeli public broadcaster Kan. Israel has seized “operational control” of a buffer strip of southern Gaza on the border with Egypt, its military announced yesterday.   China/Middle East: Chinese President Xi Jingping hosted Arab leaders (AP), including the presidents of Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), for a summit in Beijing today. Xi pledged increased trade ties and called for an end to the war in Gaza.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Sudan’s Army Rebuffs U.S. Call to Attend Peace Talks

The army will not return (Reuters) to peace talks with the rival Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group in Saudi Arabia, the second-highest-ranking official on Sudan’s transitional sovereign council said yesterday. His remarks follow a call on Tuesday in which U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged Sudan’s army chief to attend the talks.   Africa/UAE: An estimate of between $23.7 billion and $35 billion worth of gold is smuggled from African countries each year, with much of it going to the UAE, nongovernmental group SwissAid said in a new report. The UAE’s foreign affairs ministry told Bloomberg that it has taken “significant steps to address concerns around gold smuggling.”

Europe

NATO Ministers Meet as U.S. Weighs Shift in Ukraine Weapons Policy

Foreign ministers from North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries begin (Anadolu) a two-day informal meeting in Prague today, where they are expected to discuss support for Ukraine and other issues. Separately, Blinken said yesterday that Washington will continue (NYT) to “adapt and adjust” its policies after repeated calls by Ukraine for approval to use U.S.-made weapons to strike targets inside Russia.   Germany: Germany will abolish (FT) a tax on gas piped through its borders in early 2025, an economic affairs official said today. Earlier, energy importers whose gas flows through Germany, including Austria and the Czech Republic, said the tax could spur them to turn to Russian imports.

Americas

Brazil Withdraws Ambassador to Israel Amid Tensions Over Gaza War

The announcement of yesterday’s withdrawal was published in Brazil’s official gazette, and Israel summoned (AP) Brazil’s envoy for a meeting today. After Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva previously compared Israel’s war conduct to the Holocaust, Israel objected to the comparison and summoned Brazil’s ambassador.   Venezuela: A victory by President Nicolás Maduro and his ruling party in Venezuela’s July election could lead many Venezuelans to leave the country, the Associated Press reported. In a nationwide poll conducted last month, about 47 percent of respondents who are thinking about leaving said an electoral win by the opposition would push them to stay.

United States

Defense Department Readies First New Major Arms Plant Since Russia Invaded Ukraine 

The Texas plant will soon produce around thirty thousand steel shells every month for howitzers that are crucial to Ukraine’s defense effort, the New York Times reported. U.S. war aid for Ukraine has recently aimed to respond to an ammunition shortage. This article by CFR’s Jonathan Masters and Will Merrow visualizes U.S. aid to Ukraine.

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