WPR Daily Review

"Why international law still matters."

Views expressed in this geopolitical news update are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 12 April 2024, 1952 UTC.

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April 12, 2024

Hello, everyone. Today at WPR, we’re covering the purpose of international law and the absence of Myanmar from the Biden administration’s agenda in Asia.

But first, here’s our take on today’s top story:

Israel-Iran: The U.S. dispatched its top military commander for the Middle East to Israel yesterday as the two sides brace for Tehran to retaliate for Israel’s strike on an Iranian consular building in Damascus last week. Israel said yesterday it would strike back if Iran launches an attack directly from its territory. (New York Times; AP)

Our Take: Israel’s attack in Damascus, which killed seven Iranian commanders, has raised fears that the covert and indirect conflict between Israel and Iran could escalate into full-scale and direct conflict. If Tehran responds to the strike by launching a publicly attributed and direct attack on Israel from its territory, it would cross a threshold that both sides have so far backed away from.

Of course, that would be a worst-case scenario, as Iran has many other options and targets to choose from. But it’s one that U.S. officials believe is more likely now than it has been since the outbreak of war in Gaza over six months ago. It’s also one U.S. President Joe Biden has been working hard to avoid, as it would likely draw in the U.S. in some capacity. That effort has notably included backchannel engagement and indirect communications via Gulf state intermediaries between Washington and Tehran to deescalate potential flare-ups, including with Houthi rebels in Yemen and other Iranian proxies in Iraq.

But it also includes Biden’s repeated declarations of U.S. support for Israel—calling it “ironclad” just yesterday—despite growing tensions with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu. That can be seen as a form of deterrence against Tehran, and at least partially explains why Biden has not used the full range of U.S. leverage to rein in Israel in its operations in Gaza, which have damaged U.S. interests and reputation, both regionally and globally.

It would be difficult for the U.S. to simultaneously restrain Israel’s actions by limiting support and deter Iran, since any suggestion of Israeli vulnerability would empower Tehran and its proxies. Biden has essentially prioritized preventing a regional conflagration over holding Israel accountable for its conduct of the war in Gaza.

At the same time, in addition to damaging U.S. interests by disregarding Biden’s preferences in Gaza, Israel has also actively undermined the broader effort to contain the regional aspects of the conflict by escalating conflicts with Hezbollah in Lebanon and, now, with Iran. That makes it hard not to conclude that Tehran has so far been the more responsible regional actor in terms of avoiding escalation of its own and its proxies’ conflicts with Israel.

Moreover, Washington and Tehran’s efforts to avoid escalation have actually jumpstarted backchannel engagement between the two, which is arguably more frequent and intense now than at any time since the U.S. withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018. It is no small irony, then, that the war in Gaza may actually end up resulting in enhanced strategic trust between the U.S. and Iran, and even a stable modus operandi, provided they can continue to avoid a regional escalation of the conflict.

Does international law matter? While diplomats, particularly from the United States, will often talk of a “rules-based” order, recent events are leading some to ask, “Where is ‘the rules-based order’ now?”

Such cynicism is understandable. But it is a mistake to look at recent developments, like the war in Gaza, and conclude that the rules that underpin the rules-based order—namely the treaties and legal documents that are its hallmark—do not matter.

Understanding why that is the case requires thinking more carefully about the purpose of international law, columnist Paul Poast writes.

For All Its Flaws and Limitations, International Law Still Matters Cynicism about the value of international law is understandable, given its failure to change state behavior. But it is a mistake to look at recent developments and conclude that the rules that underpin the rules-based order do not matter. Understanding why requires thinking more carefully about the purpose of international law. Read more.

U.S. President Joe Biden hosted Japanese PM Kishida Fumio and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. yesterday, in the first trilateral U.S.-Japan-Philippines leaders’ summit.

The meeting centered on shared security interests and strengthening the alliances between the three governments, with an eye toward China’s increasing regional and global influence. This narrow focus on China, however, highlights the lack of seriousness paid to the escalating conflict and human rights catastrophe in Myanmar, Carolyn Nash writes.

Biden, Kishida and Marcos Just Missed a Chance to Step Up on Myanmar U.S. President Joe Biden hosted the leaders of Japan and the Philippines yesterday, in a meeting centered on shared security interests with an eye toward China’s increasing regional and global influence. This narrow focus, however, highlights the lack of seriousness paid to the escalating crisis in Myanmar. Read more.

Last Friday, Ecuador raided the Mexican Embassy in Quito to arrest former Vice President Jorge Glas, who had sought asylum there to escape two court convictions for corruption that he claimed were politically motivated.

This week’s question: Was Ecuador’s raid justified?

The results? 85% of respondents said “No.”

For more context: Read James Bosworth’s column on the raid.

Ahead of general elections beginning in one week, Indian PM Narendra Modi has made foreign policy central to his reelection campaign. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, or BJP, have painted India’s rising global stature as a major achievement of the Modi administration during his first two terms in office.

India is coming off a big year in foreign policy in 2023, and Modi has spent much of his time in office carefully constructing a narrative of a “New India” that is open for business and ready for a seat at the table where global affairs are shaped. But as Stuti Bhatnagar wrote in February, India’s foreign policy continues to face enduring challenges, including New Delhi’s efforts to walk a tightrope between great powers in global affairs.

Modi’s Diplomatic Triumphs Haven’t Solved India’s Enduring Challenges Feb. 21, 2024 | Prime Minister Narendra Modi had a big year for foreign policy. But India continues to face enduring challenges in global affairs. Read more.

*****

Chilean President Gabriel Boric recalled his country’s ambassador to Venezuela for consultations, he said yesterday. The move comes after Venezuela’s foreign minister described a notorious criminal gang based in the country as a “fiction created by the international media.”

The gang, Tren de Agua, has been a focus of attention in Chile as the country deals with a surge in crime and violence, exacerbated by irregular migration. As Patricia Garip wrote last year, a quarter of all crime suspects in Chile are foreign nationals, many of them Venezuelan, and Boric is facing pressure to deal with the spikes in both crime and migration.

A Surge in Violent Crime Is Putting Chile’s Boric in the Hot Seat April 21, 2023 | In Chile, President Boric is trying to prove he is serious about combatting a surge in crime after three police officers were killed. Read more.

*****

Iraqi PM Muhammad al-Sudani will meet with U.S. President Joe Biden in Washington next week to discuss economic ties, as well as the two sides’ defense and security relationship. Washington and Baghdad are currently in talks over a potential U.S. withdrawal from Iraq, which has renewed focus on the U.S. military presence in both Iraq and Syria.

Read Sam Heller’s briefing on why it’s time for policymakers to start thinking about how best to bring U.S. troops home.

*****

Rebels from Colombia’s National Liberation Army, or ELN, said yesterday they will not participate in an upcoming cycle of peace talks scheduled for this month. It’s the latest setback for Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s “Total Peace” plan, which was once focused exclusively on dialogue. Now, as Joshua Collins wrote recently, Petro is also turning to the military strategies used by his predecessors.

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