WPR Daily Review

 "South Korea and Slovakia election previews."

Views expressed in this geopolitical update are those of the reporters and correspondents.  Accessed on 06 April 2024, 0109 UTC.

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April 5, 2024

Hello, everyone. Today at WPR, we’re covering the growing Palestinian political crisis and the 75th anniversary of NATO.

But first, we’re taking today’s newsletter to preview two upcoming elections:

South Korea votes in legislative elections next Wednesday, April 10, with all 300 seats in the country’s single-chamber National Assembly up for grabs.

This vote is widely considered a referendum on the presidency of Yoon Suk Yeol, who was elected just over two years ago by a razor-thin margin. The stakes in this election are high for Yoon, who suffers from low approval ratings and whose agenda has so far been hampered by his conservative People Power Party’s lack of control in the Assembly. An electoral victory next week would pave the way for Yoon to implement his proposed reforms during his remaining three years in office.

In South Korea’s increasingly polarized political landscape, domestic issues are set to play the deciding role in this vote. But the outcome could still have an important impact on South Korea’s foreign policy. So far, Yoon has also sought to align Seoul more closely with Washington and improve security ties with Tokyo. An electoral victory for his party would allow Yoon to formalize that strategic direction.

Polls ahead of the election suggest the outcome will be close, although support for Yoon’s PPP has increased recently, even as his approval rating has fallen. Still, given South Korea’s polarized political environment, and the fact that 180 votes are needed to break the Assembly’s filibuster, the most likely outcome following this election is legislative gridlock. That would mean Yoon’s remaining three years in office look a lot like his first two.

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Meanwhile, Slovakia heads to the polls tomorrow to elect a new president. Ivan Korcok, a pro-Western career diplomat, faces off against Peter Pellegrini, a close ally of the country’s populist PM Robert Fico. The president in Slovakia is largely a ceremonial role, but they have enough influence to steer policy discussion, and can use the position as a bully pulpit, especially when they are in opposition to the PM.

In this case, the presidential election is also important because it is considered a referendum on the country’s foreign policy direction at a time when Slovakia stands at a crossroads.

Since taking office less than six months ago, Fico has steered Slovakia in a pro-Russian direction. He immediately halted the delivery of military aid to Ukraine and has parroted Kremlin talking points about the war. A populist and a Eurosceptic, Fico has also implemented or proposed a number of policies that have set Slovakia on a similarly illiberal direction to that of neighboring Hungary.

Despite the implications for the country’s foreign policy, Fico’s pro-Russian leanings were likely not the main driver of his victory in September. In this presidential election, foreign policy is the main issue. In what is expected to be a tight race, voters in Slovakia could offer either a rebuke or approval of Fico’s pro-Russian leanings.

While international attention is focused on the war in Gaza, the West Bank continues to be engulfed in expanding violence. The political and security situation there has been worsening for several years, while Hamas’ Oct. 7 offensive and subsequent Israeli retaliation have reverberated deeply in the West Bank, deepening public anger at Israel, and exacerbating the pre-existing drivers of insecurity and political instability.

At the same time, Israeli actions continue to energize Palestinian armed groups across the West Bank which are challenging the control of the Palestinian Authority at a time when the PA is already facing a crisis of legitimacy. As Hugh Lovatt writes, the Palestinian political system is heading towards a profound crisis.

The Palestinian Political System Is Headed Toward Crisis The war in Gaza has reverberated in the West Bank, deepening public anger at Israel. At the same time, Israeli actions in the West Bank continue to energize Palestinian armed groups that are challenging the control of the Palestinian Authority. Now, the Palestinian political system is heading towards a profound crisis. Read more.

Yesterday marked 75 years since NATO’s founding, a notable anniversary not only as a mark of longevity but also because, unlike most of the years of NATO’s existence, the alliance is immersed in war.

After years of struggling to define its post-Cold War purpose, ranging from peacekeeping provision, democracy promotion, to counterterrorism, NATO once again has a clear singular mission: it returns it to its core function of ensuring the territorial integrity of Europe.

In short, NATO is as relevant as ever. But does “relevant” necessarily mean “valuable”? Put simply, is NATO still worth it? Columnist Paul Poast writes:

After 75 Years, NATO Is as Relevant and Valuable as Ever Yesterday marked 75 years since NATO’s founding, notable not only as a mark of longevity but also because, unlike most of the years of NATO’s existence, the alliance is immersed in war. That makes NATO as relevant as ever. But does “relevant” necessarily mean “valuable”? Put simply, is NATO still worth it? Read more.

U.S. electric vehicle maker Tesla reported an 8.5 percent drop in quarterly sales on Tuesday vs. the same quarter the previous year, the first annual sales decline for the company since 2020. The report surprised investors and led to an almost 5 percent drop in Tesla’s stock in one day.

This week’s question: What is the biggest single reason this EV pioneer’s sales are slumping?

The results? 38% of respondents said the slump is due to consumer adoption of EVs generally growing more slowly than anticipated.

That’s compared to 35% who said the slump is because of increased EV competition from China and 27% who said it’s because car buyers are tired of Elon Musk’s public persona as a right-wing troll.

South Africa’s former speaker of parliament was arrested yesterday on corruption charges, following weeks of investigations. The arrest came just one day after Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula resigned from her position as speaker and as a lawmaker in the long-ruling African National Congress, or ANC.

This is just the latest scandal to hit the ANC, which has developed a reputation as deeply corrupt, for good reason. As James Hamill wrote in 2022, “In much of the country, the ANC is effectively a criminal enterprise. Its key driver is not public service or ‘transformation’ but self-enrichment, upward mobility and securing party positions to facilitate access to state resources.”

South Africa—and Ramaphosa—Have an ANC-Sized Corruption Problem Nov. 11, 2022 | The Zondo Commission’s report on corruption during Zuma’s presidency in South Africa has put Pres. Ramaphosa in an uncomfortable position. Read more.

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Finland announced yesterday that it will extend the closure of its border crossing points with Russia “until further notice.” The deadline for the closure had been April 14.

Finland closed its last remaining border crossing with Russia in November, blaming Moscow for a sudden surge of migrants that Helsinki described as part of a calculated Kremlin plot, which Russia denies. As Frida Ghitis wrote at the time, the closure has led to a standoff between Russia and NATO, which Finland just recently joined.

Putin Is Testing NATO’s Resolve at the Finnish Border Dec. 14, 2023 | Finland blamed Russia for a sudden surge in migrants at the border, accusing Russia of launching a form of “hybrid warfare.” Read more.

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U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called on China to address manufacturing overcapacity as she began a five-day visit to the country. The statement comes after China recently made the decision to double down on manufacturing, a move that has attracted much attention. As Mary Gallagher recently wrote, though, overcapacity in Chinese manufacturing isn’t new, and it isn’t a bug—it’s a feature.

More From WPR

Frida Ghitis on 2024 as a turning point year. Brent Peabody on the decline of the Russian language. Deborah Martínez & Sjors Witjes on sustainability discourse. Alexander Clarkson on Russia’s changing tactics in Ukraine.

Read all of our latest coverage here.

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