CFR Daily Brief

"Congress to separate Israel, Ukraine Aid Votes."

Views expressed in this geopolitical news update are those of the reporters and correspondents.   Accessed on 16 April 2024, 1401 UTC.

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Russ Roberts (https://trendsingeopolitics.blogspot.com).

Daily News Brief April 16, 2024

Top of the Agenda

U.S. House Speaker Announces Plan for Separate Votes on Israel, Ukraine Aid

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) plans to advance (NYT) four separate bills for defense aid to Israel, Ukraine, and other U.S. allies this week, he told reporters yesterday after meeting with Republican lawmakers. If the plan is successful, it could end months of congressional deadlock over military support. Ukraine will “have no chance of winning” without U.S. support, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksyy said yesterday in an interview with PBS. If the United States does not renew its aid package, Zelenskyy said, Russian forces “will be pushing us back every day.” In addition to bills on aid for Israel and Ukraine, Johnson plans to introduce (WaPo) a bill focused on supporting Taiwan and one that could ban social media platform TikTok, he told Republicans yesterday. The plan, which mirrors a comprehensive Senate bill, would still face votes in the U.S. Senate if the bills pass the House.

Analysis “Whereas Israel’s military operations in the Gaza Strip have become controversial and sensitive for the White House, a conflict between Israel and Iran in which the Iranian regime is launching large numbers of drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles at Israel is an entirely different matter, which means security assistance is now more likely to be forthcoming,” CFR expert Steven A. Cook writes in this In Brief.   “The urgency of supporting Ukraine is as great now as it was at the beginning of the war,” the Catholic University of America’s Michael Kimmage tells The President’s Inbox podcast. “Ukraine can't every month be losing territory indefinitely or else the war will start to tip in Russia's favor.”  CFR’s Jonathan Masters and Will Merrow visualize U.S. aid to Israel and Ukraine in graphics.

Pacific Rim

U.S. Ambassador to UN Visits Border Between North, South Korea

Linda Thomas-Greenfield invited (Bloomberg) North Korea to return to stalled nuclear disarmament talks and urged (Reuters) China and Russia to stop “rewarding bad behavior” by North Korea on today’s visit. Moscow recently vetoed the renewal of UN sanctions monitors on Pyongyang, while Beijing abstained. Thomas-Greenfield’s visit is the most significant trip by a U.S. official to the demilitarized zone by a Joe Biden administration official since 2022.   This timeline traces North Korean nuclear negotiations.  Australia: Local police are investigating (AP) a stabbing during a Sydney church service yesterday as a suspected terrorism incident. It is the second high-profile knife attack in Sydney in recent days.

South and Central Asia

Pentagon: U.S. Troops Did Not See Attacker Before Kabul 2021 Blast 

Some U.S. troops who survived the attack at Kabul’s Abbey Gate during the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 said publicly that they saw the bomber beforehand and could have prevented the blast, but they were mistaken (CNN) due to conflated intelligence reporting, the Pentagon said after a new review. It aimed to address lingering questions about the attack after a previous review by U.S. Central Command in 2022 found it could not have been prevented at the tactical level.  Pakistan: The country has begun talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) seeking a three-year, multibillion-dollar loan agreement that would support its economic reform program, Pakistan’s finance minister told AFP. Islamabad is almost finished with a nine-month, $3 billion loan deal with the IMF.

Middle East and North Africa

U.S. Facilitates Microsoft Investment in Emirati AI Firm 

Microsoft announced today that it will invest (NYT) $1.5 billion in artificial intelligence (AI) giant G42 after facilitation support from the U.S. Commerce Department, which is seeking to direct U.S. links on sensitive technology away from China. As part of the deal, G42 agreed to strip Chinese gear out of its operations and accede to a security agreement with the U.S. government.    This Backgrounder by CFR’s Noah Berman looks at artificial intelligence.   Israel/Palestinian territories: Hamas is acting as the barrier (Reuters) to a potential cease-fire and hostage release deal, while Israel has “moved in a significant way,” a U.S. State Department spokesperson told reporters yesterday. Hamas rejected a proposal last week; Washington is still seeking a deal that would allow for an at least six-week cease-fire and more aid access into the Gaza Strip, he added. For Think Global Health, Rohini Haar and Saman Zia-Zarifi explore the role of international humanitarian law in the Israel-Hamas war.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Ghana to Update Restructuring Deal With Bondholders After IMF Rejects First Attempt

Ghana’s finance minister said yesterday that the country will tweak (Bloomberg) the terms of a restructuring deal with bondholders after the IMF said a previous agreement did not meet its parameters for debt sustainability. Nigeria: A probe into alleged fraud at Nigeria’s anti-poverty agency has led to (Reuters) the recovery of close to $29 million, a spokesperson for the country’s Economic and Financial Crimes Commission said.

Europe

Restrictions on Russian Metal Trading on U.S., UK Exchanges Come Into Effect

Prices for aluminum and nickel rose slightly (WSJ) yesterday on the London Metal Exchange after the United States and United Kingdom (UK) announced Friday they would ban new trades on metals coming from Russia. The sanctions are designed to protect Washington and London from unwanted spillover effects, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said.  China/Germany: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz posted a warning (Nikkei) against Chinese dumping and overproduction during a visit to Beijing yesterday, echoing previous comments by U.S. Secretary Yellen. Chinese President Xi Jinping said both sides should look at the issue of production capacity “objectively.”

Americas

Argentina to Purchase U.S.-Made F-16 Fighter Jets Over Chinese Alternative

Argentina signed (El País) a purchase contract today for twenty-four secondhand fighter jets from Denmark, passing on China’s offer of new JF-17s. Argentine President Javier Milei has more closely aligned with Washington since taking office in December. Brazil: Social media platform X plans to comply with rulings issued by Brazil’s top electoral court over blocking certain accounts, according to a letter from the company’s lawyers seen by Reuters. X CEO Elon Musk said last week that he would challenge court orders to restrict certain accounts.

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